M. Hewson: attenzione alle possibili sorprese dalla Cina

Scritto il alle 10:10 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• Euro ancora vulnerabile nonostante il rimbalzo di ieri a seguito dell’accordo europeo sull’intesa riguardante il fondo Ems
• In una seduta che si preannuncia senza grandi temi e con gli operatori già pronti a rientrare in vista delle festività natalizie, le uniche sorprese potrebbero giungere dalla Cina (rialzo dei tassi)
• Principali cross pot valutari

FOREX MORNING COMMENT

London –17th December 2010
The single currency continues to remain vulnerable despite the bounce overnight and yesterday’s agreement by European member countries to create a permanent crisis- management mechanism for insolvent countries in 2013. Germany managed to push through an agreement that would allow financial aid, but might force bondholders to share losses; however the more radical ideas such as euro bonds will not be discussed at all due to significant disagreements between member countries. As if to emphasis the continued problems in Europe ratings agency Moody’s yesterday put Greece BA1 rating on review for a possible downgrade as well as doing the same thing for German banks subordinated debt. In any event European bond markets continue to remain under pressure as evidenced by yesterday’s Spanish bond auction which saw yields jumping from around 4.6% to 5.446% on the 10 year, and to 5.953% from the previous 4.54% on the 15 year auction.

The IMF also approved a three year €22.5bn loan for Ireland to aid its beleaguered banking sector, while the ECB saw its capital base nearly doubled to just over €10bn over the next three years so that is able to more effectively manage its exposure to international financial markets.
That the euro didn’t fall further was largely due to a fall back in US bond yields, which had initially jumped higher after positive Philly Fed data, though the single currency also fell back against the pound after the Bank of England inflation expectations report put inflation estimates at their highest level for over 2 years, up near 4%, and appeared to put the final nail in the coffin for further QE from MPC dove Adam Posen.  With little in the way of economic data today apart from IFO data from Europe and US leading indicators there is the possibility that a Chinese rate hike may shake things up as markets continue to wind down towards the Christmas break and end of the year.

EURUSD – the single currency managed to hold above the 1.3170/80 support level yesterday as it continues to range between this key support level which has held on at least 5 occasions and the resistance at 1.3470 which is the 38.2% retracement of the down move of 1.4280/1.2965. Interim resistance can be found around 1.3380.  Tuesday’s bearish daily doji candle gives a good indication of the selling interest at these levels but to push lower we need a sustained break below 1.3170/80 to re-test the 1.3080 level which is 50% of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move, which we were unable to close below when we traded at 1.2965 in November. 

GBPUSD – the pound continues to trade in the same broad range of 1.5500/1.5990 after managing to find a degree of support just above the key 1.5510 38.2% retracement level of the 1.6300/1.4280 down move. The rally off the lows since then has been slow and steady and could well rebound back towards the 1.5670/80 resistance which acted as an area of support earlier this week and is also 38.2% retracement of the down move from 1.5910 to yesterday’s lows at 1.5530.  A break above this level could then target 1.5730. Only a move and close below 1.5510 brings the 1.5265 50% retracement level of the 1.4230/1.6300 up move back into play.

EURGBP – the failure to close above the 200 day moving average at 0.8525 this week continues to keep the bias towards the downside. However, the downside is being held in check by the interim support around the lows of the last two days around 0.8450/60. A break below this support level would re-target the 0.8400 level on the way to a test of the November lows at 0.8330 and the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8305. A close above 0.8525 retargets 0.8580.

USDJPY – the recent highs around 84.40/50 continue to frustrate the upside in spite of rising US yields as the dollar continues to trade in a broad range. Any dips below 84.00 should find some support at 83.70 while a move below that would then retarget 83.20. This 83.70/80 level needs to hold to keep the pressure on for a potential test of the 85.80 level and the 38.2% retracement of the 95.00/80.25 down move.  As indicated before as long as the dips don’t break below the 50 day MA and support around 82.35/45, then the current bullish momentum should continue to be sustained.
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