M.Hewson: su euro pesano minacce downgrade delle agenzie di rating
Nel suo report quotidiano, Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets, ha posto in evidenza i seguenti fattori:
– Franco svizzero sui massimi storici contro euro e sterlina
– Sterlina, potrebbe avere concluso il mini rally dell’ultimo periodo se la revisione del Pil del terzo trimestre dovesse deludere le attese
– Euro in calo tendenziale nonostante il supporto alla moneta unica offerto dalla Cina. A pesare sono soprattutto i downgrade minacciati dalle agenzie di rating
– Dollaro potrebbe essere supportato dalla lettura definitiva del Pil americano di oggi.
Segue il report completo in lingua originale:
With tensions easing on the Korean peninsula after yesterday’s military exercise by South Korea passed uneventfully, the US dollar has pulled back some of yesterday’s rise as some risk appetite has returned.
However, sentiment towards the single currency has continued to remain bearish on the back of last weeks downgrades and a news story that suggested that France’s triple A rating could be at risk next year, as ratings agency start to delve more forensically into countries and their banks balance sheets to assess sovereign risk.
The price of insuring French government debt rose to a record level as a result yesterday.
Unease about Ireland’s bailout package affecting the ECB’s liquidity operations and the legality of the package is also weighing on sentiment, and has seen the single currency fall back below 1.3100 for the first time since the beginning of this month.
Comments by Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund did nothing to dampen this unease, after calling current EU policies untenable and likely to lead to the break-up of the euro.
Against this backdrop the Swiss franc has continued to gain on the back of these sovereign fears as it made yet another all-time high against the euro yesterday, below 1.2650.
Sterling was underpinned yesterday by a report that the CBI expected UK interest rates to start heading up in Q2 of next year due to rising inflationary pressures, caused by rising commodity prices feeding down through the supply chain into the shops. Later this morning the latest UK public finance figures are expected to show that the figures for November increased to £16.8bn, from £9.8bn in October.
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but said it would continue to provide liquidity by buying assets to ensure monetary policy remains suitably relaxed.
EURUSD – the single currency continued its decline towards the key support between 1.3080 and 1.3100 which is both the 50% retracement of the 1.1880/1.4280 up move as well as the 200 day MA, hitting 1.3095 before rebounding. A close below this key level opens up a test below the previous lows at 1.2965 towards 1.2795 which is the 61.8% retracement of the same move.
Any pullbacks should find selling interest around Friday’s highs around 1.3370 and behind that at the key 1.3470 level, which we managed to hold below last week.
GBPUSD – unlike the single currency the pound seems to be holding up rather better against the dollar, however the lack of any bounce remains a concern. A close below 1.5500/10 could well open up a move towards the 1.5265 area via the 200 day MA support at 1.5390.
Until or once we get a close below the 1.5500 area the pound will continue to be susceptible to short squeezes back towards the 1.5670/80 area and even as far as 1.5730.
EURGBP – the pressure remains to the downside, however the failure to break below the 0.8450 level will keep the bears wary of a short squeeze. The key level on a closing basis on the upside remains the 200 day moving average at 0.8515/20.
On the other side of the range a break below the support level at 0.8450 could well re-target the 0.8400 level on the way to a test of the November lows at 0.8330, and the possibility of a move towards trend line support from the 0.8065 lows at 0.8305. A close above 0.8525 re-targets 0.8580.
USDJPY – sliding yields saw the US dollar slip back yesterday towards the 83.70 support area. A break below here could well re-target 83.20, but the firmer bias should remain while above the 50 day MA and support around 82.50, then the current bullish momentum should continue to be sustained.
The key resistance, and obstacle to a move towards 85.80, the 38.2% retracement of the 95.00/80.25 down move, remains around the recent highs at 84.40/50.