A. Laidi: attenzione alle possibili correzioni dell’azionario
• Dow-30 registra otto settimane di rialzi consecutivi come avvenne ad Aprile dello scorso anno, prima di cedere il 13% nella settimana del Flash Crash (per tornare ad una serie di 10 settimane consecutive di guadagni bisogna risalire al 1995)
• Cina, previsti nel 2011 tre nuovi rialzi dei tassi di 25 punti base ciascuno. Tale politica monetaria restrittiva comporterà perdite delle quotazioni di oro, argento, rame e petrolio mentre sosterrà quelle del dollaro Usa
• Oro, sceso sotto la media mobile a 100 giorni per la prima volta da luglio. Sotto i $1.100 ad oncia si potrebber seriamente riconsiderare la fase rialzista di fondo
INDICES OVERBOUGHT TECHNICALS, GOLD SHAKY
• The last time the Dow-30 had an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, after which index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash
• As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, we must revert back to 1995
• China tightening does remain at the top of the list of catalysts for the next leg down in gold, silver, copper and oil to the favour of the USD
London – 24th January 2010
Last week, the Dow-30 posted its 8th straight weekly increase, while the S&P500 ended the week lower after 7 straight weekly gains. The last time the Dow-30 had an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, after which index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash. This same time last year (Jan 20th) G5 equity began an 8-9% selloff that lasted 6 weeks. The catalyst was Paul Volcker’s announcement to curtail banks’ proprietary trading operations. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) –a popular measure of overbought/oversold momentum on the Dow-30 is exceeding the 70% level for the 1st time since end of April, right before the week of the Flash Crash.
Aside from the Mar-Apr 2010 period when the Dow gained for 8 straight weeks, it was back in Nov 2003-Jan 2004 when such an interrupted winning streak occurred. The time before that was in Jan-Mar 1998. As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, we must revert back to 1995 when the Dow-30 rallied for 10 straight weeks (Mar-May 1995).
In the case of the S&P500, it posted 7 consecutive winning weeks, the longest period since 2007. The last time the index had a peak-to-trough decline of more than 4% was in late November-early December. Both the S&P500 and the Dow-30 have exceeded all major technical measures (week and daily moving averages as well as key retracements). Fundamentally, Wednesday’s FOMC decision isn’t expected to hint at curtailing the $600 bln QE2 program. The expected improvement in the FOMC’s outlook (language) may help boost bond yields and allow USD some stability. Catalysts for any pullback in equities could well be downside surprises in earnings. But China tightening does remain at the top of the list of catalysts for the next leg down in gold, silver, copper and oil to the favour of the USD. With inflation at 4.8% and 1-year lending rates at 5.81%, it is normal to surmise that the last time inflation stood at these levels, lending rates were at 6.60% and not at 5.81%. Accordingly, 3 more rate hikes of 25-bps each are in the works for the year, which should continue to weigh on Cinese equities.
Gold fell below its 55 and 100-day moving averages for the first time since July. The next Chinese rate hike (hike in interest rates and not just reserve requirements) is likely to occur on the Chinese New Year (Feb 3rd). The metal remains vulnerable to breaching below $1290/oz, which would denote a confirmed a break of the Oct 2008 trendline resistance. Key subsequent downside targets stand at $1,238 (55 WMA) and $1,125 (100 WMA). Only a breach below $1,100 would imply serious reconsideration of the secular bull market.