A. Laidi: l’oro verso la media mobile a 200 giorni

Scritto il alle 18:25 da cmcmarkets

Intraday Market Thought a cura di Ashraf Laidi, Chief Market Strategist di CMC Markets.

In evidenza
• La dinamica oro/petrolio indica che l’indice Dow-30 non ce la farà a chiudere la settimana in positivo per la nona volta consecutiva
• Dollaro Usa, stabile senza euforia nonostante il dato sul Pil a causa del possibile downgrading sul debito da parte di Moody’s
• Cross Dollaro Usa-Dollaro Canadese verso la parità

INFLATIONARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AND EQUITY TOP
• Dow-30 not expected to make its 9th consecutive weekly gain, if it does, it would be the longest winning streak highest since 1995. The Gold/Oil dynamics suggest otherwise
• Currency markets showing further stabilisation in the USD due to rising bond yields and technical euro exhaustion at 1.3750
• USD initial inability to follow-up on post GDP bounce was partly attributed to Moody’s report indicating a potential revision of US credit rating w/ in 2 years
• We continue to expect Gold to test its 200-day MA ($1282) for the first time since Jan 2009 and silver to fall by another 15% to reach $23, we expect oil to deepen losses all the way to $82

London – 28th January 2010
Dow-30 not expected to make its 9th consecutive weekly gain, if it does, it would be the longest winning streak highest since 1995. The Gold/Oil dynamics suggest otherwise.
The 3.2% increase in US Q4 growth emerged from primarily from a healthy combination of rising consumption (PCE +4.45% highest in 4 years) and improved net exports (next exports +8.5% from 6.8%) rather than an inventory contribution. US 10 year bond yields are the main market mover, rising 7 bps to 3.45% as improved US growth greases the wheel for inflationary expectations to creep back up. Yields have consolidated within the 3.25%-3.50% range for the past 5 weeks and are more likely to edge higher as global inflationary concerns feed into G5 bonds.  January University of Michigan consumer sentiment is revised up to 74.2 from initial 72.7 (74.5 in Dec). The 1-year inflation expectations index was revised to 3.4%, its highest since Oct 2008 4%, showing a clear pick up in expectations from the 2.2% low reached in September. This suggests that annual core PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure) will most likely have bottomed at 0.8% y/y in January and should give the FOMC hawks (Plosser & Fisher) reason to dissent starting in March.

Currency markets showing further stabilisation in the USD due to rising bond yields and technical euro exhaustion at 1.3750 as well as dismal UK consumer confidence. Japanese yen holding on to its European session rebound from yesterday’s S&P downgrade. Sterling is the biggest loser after UK January GfK consumer confidence slumped to 22-mth lows & biggest decline since 1992. Inability to regain $1.60 should gradually send flows back to $1.5660 and into $1.5580 support.  USD initial inability to follow-up on post GDP bounce was partly attributed to Moody’s report indicating a potential revision of US credit rating w/ in 2 years. But the aforementioned technical exhaustion dynamics underline that the US index remains well supported about the all important trendline of 76. 

The 5% rebound in the Gold/Oil ratio from its 5-month lows denotes that oil prices are starting to accelerate their losses relative to metals. While we continue to expect Gold to test its 200-day MA ($1282) for the first time since Jan 2009 and silver to fall by another 15% to reach $23, we expect oil to deepen losses all the way to $82. Intercommodity dynamics have shown that peaking US equity indices usually coincide with rebounding G/O ratio as pricey energy prices end up weighing on risk appetite to the extent of feeding onto crude and Brent prices.

The FX implications are for USDCAD to regain parity and onto 1.0180, while USDNOK eyes the 5.85. Egypt rating downgraded by Fitch as escalating disruptions and tumbling equity markets raise speculation of a Tunisia-like presidential coup (led most likely by the Military).Unlike in Tunisia, whose ousted pres Ben Ali was a civilian, president Mubarak was the highest military appointee after Sadat’s death. Chatter that any fall of the ruling govt would endanger the Suez Canal passage way of oil and trade into the Mediterranean and Europe. The current populous uprising is especially historic not only because it is led by the broad Egyptian Street (and not confined to religious extremism) but also because of the deteriorating confidence fabric of the ruling party one year ahead of the presidential elections.

Commento Laidi 28012011

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