A. Laidi: attenzione all’andamento dell’inflazione cinese

Scritto il alle 19:55 da cmcmarkets

Intraday Market Thought a cura di Ashraf Laidi, Chief Market Strategist di CMC Markets
In evidenza
• CPI cinese potrebbe mostrare una crescita inferiore al previsto causa ribilanciamento dei pesi all’interno del paniere, che potrebbe costituire un catalizzatore rialzista per i mercati azionari
• Rivalutazione dello yuan, l’obiettivo di Pechino è di un apprezzamento dell’ordine del 2-3% all’anno
• Sterlina prevista in rialzo nei confronti di Yen ed Euro

AHEAD OF CHINA, UK INFLATION FIGURES
• Talk that China CPI would be dragged down by a possible adjustment in the weight of food from the current 34% could also help fuel equities higher
• Beijing’s ideal arrangement would be the ability to maintain orderly currency appreciation of 2-3% per year without disrupting the external and domestic sectors through pro-active monetary policy management (ahead-of-thecurve tightening) in order to contain actual and expected inflation
• Although BoE’s Mervyn King predicted CPI would further increase above the 4% level, such figures are unlikely to prevent a knee-jerk reaction rise in GBP, primarily against JPY (especially on rising yields hurting yen) and EUR (dragged by ECB succession uncertainty & Feb 25 Irish elections)

London – 14th February 2011
China and the UK, two countries with the most worrisome inflation, rates will release their January CPI on Tuesday. China’s CPI (2:00 GMT) expected at 5.1%-5.3% y/y (highest since Aug 2008) from 4.6% in Dec, while UK CPI (9:30 GMT) expected at 4.1%-4.3% y/y (highest since Nov 2008). Last week’s PBOC 25-bp rate hike (3rd since 2007) has already fuelled speculation of a rebound in CPI following the December retreat to 4.6% from 5.1% in Nov.

But talk that China CPI would be dragged down by a possible adjustment in the weight of food from the current 34% could also help fuel equities higher. The share of food in US and UK CPI stands at 13.7% and 10.8% respectively.  The expectation that a downside surprise in China CPI (regardless of reweighting) boosting equities rests on the rationale that the diminishing likelihood of further rate hikes reduces the risk of a Chinese hard landing. But markets require broader cooling off in bank lending and property purchases beyond retail price growth. One aspect of greater certainty is further gradual appreciation in the Chinese yuan, which rose 3.5% from Jan 2010 to date. Beijing’s ideal arrangement would be the ability to maintain orderly currency appreciation of 2-3% per year without disrupting the external and domestic sectors. The latter can be attained with pro-active monetary policy management (ahead-of-the-curve tightening) in order to contain actual and expected inflation.

Tomorrow’s UK Jan CPI will likely deliver its share rising rate hike expectations (currently pricing two 25-bps hikes for 2011). Analysts’ median expectations according to MNI stand at 4.2%, with 4.0%-4.4% range. Although BoE’s Mervyn King predicted CPI would further increase above the 4% level, such figures are unlikely to prevent a knee-jerk reaction rise in GBP, primarily against JPY (especially on rising yields hurting yen) and EUR (dragged by ECB succession uncertainty & Feb 25 Irish elections).  The EURGBP chart below indicates a looming approach towards the 7-month trendline support of 0.8360, a break of which would technically pave the way for the 0.8050s (lowest since Oct 2008). A GBPUSD recovery above $1.6120s is expected to remain capped under the prelim $1.63 Nov high, while the $1.6380 resistance from the Nov 2007 trendline (post-Northern Rock peak). Support begins at $1.560s, but multi-month foundation remains at $1.5780.


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