M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sull’andamento dell’inflazione
• Inflazione, si apre una settimana decisiva per quanto riguarda i movimenti dei prezzi soprattutto in Europa dove sono attesi i dati di Uk, Usa e Cina. Inflazione e rendimenti in salita potrebbero rappresentare uno dei maggiori catalizzatori anche sul mercato valutario
• Eurodollaro in pausa interlocutoria con $1.35 come primo target ribassista e $1.3650 come resistenza da oltrepassare per rafforzare il consolidamento al rialzo
• Dollaro yen verso 82.80
• Principali cross-spot valutari
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 14th February 2011
The “inflation” word will have a particular resonance this week, amidst concerns about rising food prices in emerging markets and rising interest rates, creating a drag on growth. Last week we saw China, Russia and India take further steps to tighten monetary policy due to concerns about rising inflation, and last Friday UK producer input prices rose above 13.4% year on year, well above expectations, and the highest annual rise since October 2008.
This week we have UK, US and China CPI which is expected to increase yet again amidst concerns that the inflation genie may be getting out of the bottle. Wednesday’s Bank of England quarterly inflation report and Mervyn King’s comments will be closely scrutinised for clues with respect to further divisions in the MPC as well as any revised expectations going forward.
This will keep investors particularly focused on the bond markets where yields have been rising steadily across the board. The consumer will also be in focus this week with retail sales figures for both the UK and US with particular attention on the UK after last months VAT rise, though the US figures could also suffer as a result of January’s bad weather. The single currency will also be in focus after last week’s declines and concerns about rising Portuguese bond yields as well as this weeks meeting of European Finance ministers who are meeting with respect to debt reduction targets. Greece and Italy have already opposed proposals in respect to numerical reductions in these and this has again raised the prospect that European leaders will again fail to gain a consensus on how best to deal with their debt problems.
There is also the small matter of a successor to Axel Weber, Bundesbank president. Of particular significance will be whether his successor is a more conciliatory or dovish voice, vis-àvis the ECB’s interventions in the bond market, or whether his replacement will look to maintain the Bundesbank hawkish stance.
EURUSD – Friday’s falls saw the single currency fail to take out the support at 1.3500/10, though it did trade slightly below it and it also failed to close below the 100 day MA at 1.3543, closing the week around 1.3550 in New York. A move below the neckline around 1.3500/10 is required to target a move towards 1.3410 initially; however any move of this nature could well be the catalyst for a larger move towards 1.3200. Rebounds from the lows on Friday have been limited to 1.3570 so far and a move above here could well target a move back to 1.3650. Back above the right shoulder peaks at 1.3750 would re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4010 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.
GBPUSD – Friday’s push below the 1.6020 level saw a move to 1.5965 on Friday; however the market was unable to close below 1.6000 which would have given more confidence about a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820. However the fact that the pound closed below 1.6020 suggests that the tone is weakening slightly and only a significant move back above 1.6050 would suggest some stabilisation and a move back towards 1.6120. Until such time as the pound is able to push below 1.6000 then a move towards the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the next trend line resistance at 1.6330 cannot be ruled out.
EURGBP – as expected we saw the 0.8430 level, pushing slightly below it in the process at 0.8424, but we were unable to break below the 0.8420/30 trend line support area identified on Friday, from the lows at 0.8285. This leaves open the possibility of a rebound back towards the 0.8480 area, a break of which would then suggest 0.8540. We need to break through the trend line 0.8420/30 area to re-test last weeks low around 0.8388.
USDJPY – last weeks upside break has seen the yen run into selling pressure near the 7th January highs around 83.65/70. While below this level we could see the dollar slip back towards 82.80 and the 50 day MA and last weeks break-out level. A break below here would then re-target the 82.20 area. The 94.40/50 area remains the overall longer term target while US bond yields remain resilient and above 3.5%.