A. Laidi: il dollaro paga le tensioni in Medio Oriente
Dollaro insolitamente venduto a dispetto dei focolai di tensione accesi in tutto il Medio Oriente. Eurodollaro al test di $1.3620 prima di riprendere quota 1.3750.Secondo Ashraf Laidi, la spiegazione va ricercata sia nel rimbalzo degli indici azionari (indice Philadelphia Fed tornato sui livelli massimi degli ultimi sette anni ha rinvigorito la propensione al rischio degli investitori) che nelle dichiarazioni di rappresentanti del Fondo Monetario Internazionale, che starebbero velatamente lanciando un messaggio a Pechino affinchè permetta allo yuan di rivalutarsi.
Apprezzamenti visibili di oro e Brent come conseguenza della turbolenza in Medio Oriente
MIDEAST TENSIONS GROW COMPLEX SHRUGGED BY RISK
• Rebounding equities explain part of the USD selling but the IMF’s latest update indicating the US dollar is on “the strong side” of fundamentals, suggesting that some depreciation would help a more balanced growth is also weighing on the currency
• FX traders are well aware that such remarks are a veiled restatement of pressuring China on its currency as the US dollar is overvalued against the
• EURUSD 2-day gain tests the $1.3620 resistance, a break of which would extend towards last week’s right shoulder high of $1.3750
London – 17th February 2011
Rebounding equities explain part of the USD selling but the IMF’s latest update indicating the US dollar is on “the strong side” of fundamentals, suggesting that some depreciation would help a more balanced growth is also weighing on the currency. FX traders are well aware that such remarks are a veiled restatement of pressuring China on its currency as the US dollar is overvalued against the Chinese yuan.
USD continues to trade near its session lows despite conflictive news about Iranian warships’ passage through the Suez Canal en route to Syria. Although the story was first reported on Monday, some strategists wonder whether the news is a way for Tehran to deflect attention from this week’s unrest towards foreign affairs. There is even speculation of a possible Shia’a power grab, considering the protests in Bahrain (Shia’s make up 70% of total population) and Iran’s purported attempts to hold military drills near the Syrian part of the Mediterranean in order to provide Naval backing to Hizbullah and confine Israel up North. Hizbullah, instrumental in last month’s breakdown of the Lebanese govt claims to have won the 2006 war with Israel. Its desire to re-invigorate the military momentum may be fulfilled by Iran’s naval manoeuvres.
Risk appetite extends higher following the strongest Philly Fed business survey in 7 years as well as muted US inflation. Such flows are leading the funding of USD carry trade to boost equities and commodities. But a more detailed look shows that gold continues to rise relative to oil as the gold/US crude ratio gains 12% month-to-date. This is partly aided by alleviating worries with any slowdown in China (despite the recent rate hikes) and the 10% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index month-to-date. One anomaly is the decline in US bond yields (US 10-year down 9 bps from yesterday) despite 7-year highs in a broadly strong Feb Philly Fed. USD adds to Wednesday’s sell-off was a wake-up call to aggressive USD longs in emerging on hesitancy from risk currencies, but these remain well confined w/in their ranges. One example is the AUDUSD chart whose 4-hour chart 1.0060s resistance was broken .
THE PATTERN WITHIN A PATTERN is the Head & Shoulder better seen on the AUDUSD 4-hour chart, whose left shoulder stands 1.0070 (Jan 19), head at 1.02 (Feb 7) and right shoulder at 1.0070 (Feb 14). Such H&S pattern is part of the greater H&S (left shoulder on Nov), which we already talked about. Four- hour stochastics turning lower, suggesting next support at 0.9950, which has yet to break. Immediate cap found at 1.0075. EURGBP shows little progress above 0.8440s before retreating gradually back to 0.84, still eyeing 0.8350, and vulnerable to a potential break below 0.82. EURUSD 2-day gain tests the $1.3620 resistance, a break of which would extend towards last week’s right shoulder high of $1.3750, corresponding to the left shoulder from Jan 27. Donwside finds temporary support at $1.34, backed by the 55 week MA at $1.32.