M. Hewson: euro indebolito dal pressing su Lisbona
Questa mattina ancora occhi puntati sulla sterlina per un possibile ritracciamento in attesa dei dati di gennaio sulle vendite al dettaglio. A seguito dell’insuccesso dell’asta spagnola e con i rendimenti sui titoli del Portogallo tornati ai livelli massimi degli ultimi quattordici anni, la Germania starebbe tornando a chiedere a Lisbona di concordare un pacchetto di aiuti finanziari: un quadro che lascia l’Euro in una condizione di incertezza, che difficilmente lo porterà a consolidare oltre $1.3750. Nuovi apprezzamenti per Franco svizzero, oro e petrolio sulla scia dei focolai di rivolta mediorientali: target $105/barile per il Brent. Superata questa soglia si avvicinerebbe l’obiettivo a $110. Previste aperture invariate per i mercati azionari europei.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 18th February 2011
The pound continues to remain fairly firm despite Wednesday’s dovish rate comments by Mervyn King after the publication of the inflation report. It was helped in some part by MPC member Andrew Sentance again calling for a rise in interest rates on the back of his unease at the Bank of England underestimating the inflation risks for the UK economy.
Though there was nothing new in his comments it serves to highlight the dilemmas facing the MPC over the coming months. However, this mornings retail sales figures for January could well knock the stuffing out of it if they don’t improve significantly from December’s decline of 0.3%. Analysts are expecting a rise of 0.2% for January, but we could well see a larger rebound given that some retailers delayed the implementation of the VAT hike and discounted heavily because of the poor pre Christmas trading period. In any event part of sterling’s rebound yesterday was also due to some US dollar weakness, after US CPI figures continued to remain fairly benign, though there was a small up-tick, while weekly jobless claims also rose by 25k to 410k, which in turn sent bond yields lower.
The single currency has slipped back slightly after a Spanish bond auction didn’t go as well as planned. The yield on the 10 year rose slightly, to 5.38%, while the bid to cover slid from 1.67 to 1.54, while the Portuguese 10 year bond yield hit another 14 year high, prompting speculation that Germany was applying pressure for Portugal to accept a bailout.
The G20 meeting set to start today is also expected to ratify the agreement earlier this week by Ecofin to double the EFSF bailout fund to €500bn, though Germany will no doubt want some onerous strings attached. Overshadowing all of this has been increased tensions across the Middle East that has seen Swiss franc, gold and oil all push higher on safe haven demand, and fears about supply chain concerns. $105 remains a key resistance level on Brent crude and if the market breaks through here it could well see a rapid surge towards $110. The US dollar’s usual safe haven status has been undermined because of sliding yields and underwhelming economic data on the back of the FOMC minutes.
EURUSD – currently having some local difficulty getting back under the 100 day MA around the 1.3540 area, which means the likelihood of further euro gains is a real possibility. The trend line resistance referred to yesterday from the 1.3865 highs currently comes in now around 1.3620 and a break above here could well go on to target the right shoulder peak at 1.3750. This move back above 1.3550 doesn’t totally negate the downside scenario and a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410. Only a move back above the right shoulder peaks at 1.3750 would do that, and re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4010 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145.
GBPUSD – cable is still finding the air a little thin up near the 1.6200 area and is currently finding plenty of bids around the 1.6000 level. There is also interim support around 1.6080 and while this holds we could still potentially see a test of the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the next trend line resistance also at 1.6300 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. Below 1.6080 targets 1.5980 while a close below 1.6000 could target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – the euro was slightly stronger yesterday but it was again unable to push on much beyond the 0.8435 area. As reiterated yesterday any move above here could spill over towards 0.8480 but as long as we stay below this level then downside scenario remains preferred option. The trend line support at 0.8340 from the 2009 lows at 0.8065 remains the next target. A move back below 0.8400/10 is needed to retarget this weeks lows and the trend line support, now at 0.8340
USDJPY – slightly weaker US bond yields saw the dollar peaked slip back from just shy of the 84.00 area. Still favour the move towards the 84.40/50 area and December 2010 highs. Look for any pullbacks to find support around the 83.20 area and below that at 82.80 and the 50 day MA and last weeks break-out level. A break below here would then retarget the 82.20 area. The 84.40/50 area remains the overall longer term target while US bond yields remain resilient and above 3.5%.