M. Hewson: si apre una settimana incerta, attenzione al ritorno dell’avversione al rischio
Si apre una settimana caratterizzata dal proseguimento delle tensioni in Medio Oriente che, unitamente a segnali inflazionistici globali, potrebbero incidere sulla propensione al rischio degli investitori. All’interno di questo scenario, oggi i volumi sui mercati dovrebbero attestarsi ad un livello inferiore alla media a causa della chiusura delle Borse americane per il President’s Day, situazione che potrebbe dare luogo a bruschi strappi dei prezzi.
L’Euro, rimbalzato sopra $1.37 venerdì sulle dichiarazioni di Bini Smaghi circa la possibilità di un rialzo dei tassi, potrebbe dover fare i conti con un quadro più negativo, dovuto al sostanziale nulla di fatto del G20 sulle soluzioni ai problemi di solvibilità innescati dai Paesi periferici e alla sconfitta elettorale del partito di Angela Merkel. Quadro più incerto sulla direzionalità della sterlina, i cui recenti cali potrebbero venire limitati dall’allargamento del fronte rialzista all’interno della BoE. Per i mercati azionari si prevedono aperture negative.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 21th February 2011
The weekend G20 meeting turned out to be largely as expected though leaders did manage to agree to the publication of a statement saying that by April “indicative guidelines” would be agreed to measure trade balances, public and private debt and exchange rates as part of an early warning system to warn of global trade imbalances. However as we head in o a new week there are tensions in the Middle East that will continue to act as a backdrop to the markets, and this could well weigh on risk appetite, along with increasing concerns about rising inflationary pressures around the world.
China’s move on Friday to once again raise its bank reserve requirement ratios by another 50 basis points merely serves to underline investor concerns about rising inflation. With economic data fairly light today due to the President’s day holiday in the US markets are likely to be light on volume, but also subject to some sharp moves.
Comments on Friday about potential tightening measures, in the face of rising inflation pressures in Germany, by ECB member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi have seen the single currency rebound, while the US dollar slipped back as Fed chairman Bernanke launched a robust defence of the Fed’s policy of QE2 at the weekend G20 meeting. Today’s German IFO and PMI economic data out later is expected to show that the German recovery continues to gain traction, however concerns remain about the level of Portuguese bond yields.
This is of particular concern given that in the absence of any co-ordinated plan to resolve the debt issues within Europe the ECB continues to intervene in the bond markets in an attempt to push these yields back down. As things stand German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s hand has been somewhat weakened with respect to defending the euro after voters in Hamburg this weekend made their feelings known about her stance with respect to Europe, handing her party their worst electoral defeat since the Second World War.
With the Bank of England minutes due later this week expected to show further dissent between policy makers it could well be that the downside for the pound could be somewhat limited if speculation last Friday is true that Deputy Governor Charles Bean joined Sentance and Weale in voting for a hike in rates. Certainly last Friday’s 1.9% increase in January UK retail sales figures were a welcome relief after the awful December figures, but the pound has public finance data tomorrow as well as the first revision to that awful Q4 GDP number this Friday.
EURUSD – Friday’s rebound took the single currency back above 1.3700 towards the right shoulder peak at 1.3750. This area remains a key resistance area as it also coincides with a trend line resistance from the 1.4280 highs. A break above this resistance point would then re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4010 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. It now needs a break back below the 100 day MA around the 1.3550 level to retarget a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to pummel the bears but crucially remains below the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the next trend line resistance also at 1.6290 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. Interim support remains around 1.6080 while a move below here targets 1.5980. A close below 1.6000 is needed to target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – the trend line support at 0.8345 from the 2009 lows at 0.8065 continues to hold and provoked a stronger rebound on Friday again finding resistance just above the 0.8435 area and the 200 day MA at 0.8450. As reiterated last week any move above this level could spill over towards 0.8480, and even 0.8520, but as long as we stay below this level then downside scenario remains the preferred option. A move back below 0.8400/10 is needed to retarget last week’s lows and the trend line support, now at 0.8345.
USDJPY – a slightly softer tone in US bond yields has hurt the dollar here, sending it slipping back towards the breakout level and just shy of the 50 day MA at 82.80. A break below here would then re-target the 82.20 area. Still favour the move towards the 84.40/50 area and December 2010 highs. The 84.40/50 area remains the overall longer term target while US bond yields remain resilient and above 3.5%.