M. Hewson: euro, si conferma il quadro ribassista
Yen sotto pressione ribassista sia a seguito del downgrade di Moody’s, che ha abbassato l’outlook sul debito del Giappone da stabile a negativo, che a causa dei rialzi nei prezzi dei petroliferi, data la sua posizione storica di importatore. Il peggioramento della situazione politica sul fronte mediorientale ha innescato il rally di materie prime e petrolio con l’Oro che ha superato i $1.400 l’oncia, l’Argento sui massimi degli ultimi 34 anni a $34 dollari e il Brent sopra i $105 dollari al barile, prezzo più alto da trent’anni a questa parte.
Non cambia il quadro ribassista nel quale si muove l’Euro, nonostante nuove dichiarazioni su un possibile rialzo dei tassi ne abbiano per il momento limitato la discesa. I rendimenti sui bond portoghesi sopra il 7% e le preoccupazioni politiche interne del Cancelliere Merkel lasciano presagire che ci sia maggior spazio per un ribasso prima verso $1.3410 e poi 1.3200. Dollaro-yen verso un rafforzamento del cambio a 84.40.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 22th February 2011
The Japanese yen took a knock from Moody’s downgrade of its outlook from stable to negative in Asia this morning, and could well come under further pressure from continuing rising oil prices given its position as a net importer of oil. The rising tensions in the Middle East has seen the precious metals of gold and silver as well as crude oil surge higher with gold pushing back above $1,400, silver at $34 to 30 year highs, and Brent Crude closing above $105 at 3 year highs, and above its 61.8% retracement level of the down move from the 2008 highs at £147.50 to the lows the same year at $36.50.
As a result the positive European economic data we got out of Germany yesterday was completely overshadowed by increasing risk aversion on the back of these rising tensions in the Middle East. Downside in the single currency did intially appear to be limited on the back of some hawkish comments from ECB board member Juergen Stark last night who said that the bank was prepared to act decisively and immediately if needed to combat inflationary pressures, though it is hard to see how they could do so given the problems in peripheral Europe.
As if to emphasis the point Europe’s banking system continues to feel the strain with the ECB overnight lending facility again being well utilised, while Portuguese bond yields remained stubbornly above 7%. The defeat of Angela Merkel’s ruling party in weekend elections in Hamburg is going to complicate matters with respect to Germany’s flexibility to compromise in solving Europe’s debt problems, and this could have significant ramifications for the single currency in the longer term and ultimately keep the focus on further weakness.
However, today the pound is back in the spotlight with the publication of January public finance figures. Expectations for PSNBR are for a surplus of £300m, a significant improvement on December’s £15bn; however this surplus will be as a result of a rush of last minute tax payments.
Later on in the day MPC member and arch dove Adam Posen is scheduled to speak, where he will likely reiterate his call for further QE, ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Bank of England minutes of the last meeting. Some market participants are expecting that the committee could find itself even more split with some speculation that a third member could well have wanted to raise rates. In the US, February consumer confidence is expected to show continued improvement rising from last months 60.6 to expectations of 63.00.
EURUSD – yesterdays range remained below the key resistance towards the right shoulder peak at 1.3750. This area remains a key resistance area as it also coincides with a trend line resistance from the 1.4280 highs. A break above this resistance point would then re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4010 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. It now needs a break back below the 100 day MA around the 1.3550 level to re-target a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to remain firmly well supported but crucially remains below the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the trend line resistance also at 1.6290 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. Interim support remains around 1.6080 while a move below here targets 1.5980. A close below 1.6000 is needed to target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find upside progress above the 200 day MA at 0.8450 difficult to overcome while the trend line support at 0.8345 from the 2009 lows at 0.8065 continues to hold on the downside. As reiterated last week any move above this resistance level could spill over towards 0.8480, and even 0.8520, but as long as we stay below this level then downside scenario remains the preferred option. A move back below 0.8400/10 is needed to retarget last week’s lows and the trend line support, now at 0.8345.
USDJPY – the US dollar retained its slightly softer tone yesterday however as long as the 82.80 level and 50 day MA holds then the potential for further gains remains. Moody’s downgrade of Japan’s outlook to negative from stable should help in this regard. A break below here would then re-target the 82.20 area. Still favour the move towards the 84.40/50 area and December 2010 highs. The 84.40/50 area remains the overall longer term target while US bond yields remain resilient and above 3.5%.