M. Hewson: Bce, un rialzo dei tassi creerebbe problemi nella periferia dell’Eurozona
Euro sostenuto dalle dichiarazioni dei membri della Bce circa uno scenario di politica monetaria più restrittiva e dall’ammissione di una possibile rinegoziazione delle condizioni di aiuti alla Grecia da parte di Angela Merkel. Tuttavia, si deve ricordare che il quadro attuale dell’Eurozona difficilmente potrebbe digerire un rialzo dei tassi senza conseguenze per i Paesi periferici.
In mezzo a questa querelle, la moneta unica tenta di riprendere quota $1.3750, pur senza smettere di volgere lo sguardo al piano di sotto, con un primo target a $ 1.3540. Ai livelli attuali la Sterlina sembrerebbe già scontare un rialzo dei tassi nei prossimi mesi, forse già in Aprile, nel caso in cui aumentassero a quattro i membri della BoE favorevoli ad un irrigidimento del costo del denaro. Potrebbe invece realizzarsi un selling-off delle posizioni qualora l’equilibrio tra favorevoli e contrari rimanesse inalterato. Oggi atteso un discorso del nuovo membro della Fed Plosser che potrebbe generare delle anticipazioni sul suo comportamento relativamente alla prossima riunione della banca centrale americana di marzo.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 23th February 2011
Both the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen pushed higher yesterday as tensions in Libya and the Middle East were raised to boiling point by Colonel Gadaffi’s pledge to die as a martyr in Libya, rather than step down. In China consumer confidence slid to its lowest levels since 2009 as inflation fears continued to weigh on sentiment in the wake of rising commodity prices. Comments from ECB policymakers about inflation stemmed losses in the single currency ahead of next week’s ECB rate setting meeting with Yves Mersch suggesting that the bank might be minded to be slightly more hawkish about inflation. With US bond yields falling back as investors move in to US treasuries the euro pulled back from its lows. The ECB could find that talking tough on rates is one thing, but actually doing it could be slightly more problematic, given the problems in the peripheral regions of Europe.
In a separate development German Chancellor Angela Merkel revealed that EU leaders might be open to a renegotiation of the terms of Greece’s bailout package, in an attempt to boost confidence in the single currency. In the UK we saw a marked improvement in the public finances for January, showing a net surplus of £5.25bn, well in excess of expectations of £300m, as a result of improved tax revenues in January. Today’s main event from an economic standpoint is the publication of the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting, where speculation has been rife that interest rate hawks Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale could well have been joined by one more advocate for an interest rate rise.
If they have indeed been joined by a third member then that would probably keep the odds for a rate hike in May, pretty much in line with current market expectations. However if there are four dissenters then we could see that move to a possible April hike, while no change to the 2-1-6 split could see sterling sell off. Adam Posen unsurprisingly reiterated his dovish position in a speech in Oxford last night. Later on in the day new FOMC voting member Charles Plosser is due to speak in Alabama and markets could well get an insight into his thinking with respect to the next FOMC meeting next month.
EURUSD – another failure at the 100 day MA yesterday has seen the single currency trade back towards the right shoulder peak above 1.3700. The key resistance levels remain towards the right shoulder peak at 1.3750 as well as the trend line resistance from the 1.4280 highs at 1.3770.
A break above this resistance point would then re-target the trend line resistance coming in just above 1.4000 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. The euro still needs a break back below the 100 day MA around the 1.3540 level to re-target a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410.
GBPUSD – the pound slipped back yesterday but importantly remained above the support area which comes in around the 1.6080 area. The key resistance remains around the November highs at 1.6300, as well as the trend line resistance also at 1.6280 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. A break below the 1.6080 support has the potential to target 1.5980. A close below 1.6000 is needed to target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – the single currency finally managed to break above the 200 day MA at 0.8450 and as suspected it has indeed spilt over towards the 0.8480 area. I’m not throwing in the towel yet on the lower euro scenario as it is approaching trend line resistance from the 0.8670 highs which currently comes in at around the same level at 0.8480. Above 0.8480 would argue for a move towards 0.8520. A move back below 0.8400/10 is needed to retarget last week’s lows and the trend line support, now at 0.8345.
USDJPY – as we saw with the previous ratings downgrade it didn’t weaken the yen at all. We saw the yen strengthen and push lower as US bond yields fell sharply below 3.5% and as such the dollar sank below the 82.80 support area. Continued weakness in US bond yields will weigh on the topside in the yen and we could well see 82.20. The US dollar needs to push back above the 83.20/30 area to re-target a move back towards the range highs.
It would appear that as before we may have to wait for the move towards the 84.40/50 area and December 2010 highs.