M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sulle banche centrali
Con l’insorgenza di nuovi focolai dal Medioriente all’Asia, la settimana che si apre sarà caratterizzata ancora dai fatti geopoplitici oltre che dalle analisi sulle decisioni che verranno prese da alcune delle maggiori banche centrali (Australia, Canada, Bce). Se il dato di domani sull’inflazione europea dovesse essere più alto del previsto, aumenterebbero le scommesse circa l’atteggiamento della banca centrale giovedì, nonostante lo spazio di manovra per un rialzo dei tassi possa considerarsi ben limitato (specie in considerazione del nuovo governo irlandese che potrebbe rinegoziare gli aiuti concessi a dicembre e della Bce che rimane il prestatore di ultima istanza).
Euro incapace di andare oltre $1.3861 potrebbe nuovamente scivolare verso 1.36, mentre prosegue la debolezza del dollaro americano (soprattutto nei confronti dello Yen) sulle attese di un proseguimento del QE2 almeno fino a giugno. Si prevede un’apertura piatta o leggermente in calo per i mercati azionari europei.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 28th February 2011
With all the news emanating out of the Middle East last week and the markets focus on Libya and higher oil prices, and the effect these could have on the global economic recovery, the last thing markets really wanted to hear over the weekend was the prospect of the turmoil spreading further with Oman reporting unrest. Increased tensions between North and South Korea as the North threatened to take military action against the South in response to a propaganda blitz encouraging unrest amongst its citizens have hardly helped either.
In a further move not really conducive to risk appetite China announced it was reducing its growth targets for the next five years, and would look to try and rein in economic growth in an attempt to better control food and housing prices, as inflation continues to cause difficulties in the world’s second biggest economy. Events in Libya and the Middle East look likely to continue to be the main driver of risk this week, however there are a number of macro economic events that will have a key bearing as well, especially with respect to inflation with the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank’s due to meet for their monthly rate setting meetings, as well as US non-farm payrolls on Friday.
The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.75%, the Bank of Canada unchanged at 1%; while this weeks ECB rate meeting will be of particular interest given the recent sabre rattling by ECB policy makers in the past week or so about the dangers of rising inflationary pressures and the importance of price stability. Tomorrow’s Euro zone CPI estimate is expected to show year on year inflation running at 2.4%, however if it comes in much higher, speculation about what the ECB might do on Thursday could well increase. Given the problems in Europe’s periphery the scope for action on rates could well be limited, especially if Ireland’s new government looks to renegotiate the bailout package recently agreed, and the ECB continues to have to act as lender of last resort in order to prop up the overnight lending market. The pound had a bit of a disappointing day on Friday when UK Q4 GDP was revised even lower, moving down from -0.5% to a figure of -0.6%, with the ONS citing that 0.5% of the decline was due to the snow effect. However this week’s purchasing managers data is widely expected to show a continued bounce back in economic activity, building on January’s good numbers, starting with February manufacturing PMI tomorrow which is expected to slip back only marginally from last month’s record number to 61.5.
The US dollar has continued to remain under pressure dragged lower by perceptions of loose monetary policy and the perception that the Fed will continue to lag behind the tightening curve relative to the ECB and BoE. Today’s Core PCE price index data for January could well reinforce this perception given that it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and expectations are for it to remain stuck around 0.1%. Friday’s disappointing revision in Q4 GDP number also dragged the dollar lower after being revised down by 0.4% to 2.8%, reinforcing the likelihood that QE2 would continue into June as well as speculation that the Fed could extend it further.
EURUSD – the single currency’s inability to push beyond the February highs at 1.3861, and a subsequent slip back below 1.3750 could well see a correction back towards the trend line support at 1.3600 from the 1.2870 lows at the beginning of January. A break above 1.3860 has the potential to target trend line resistance at 1.3985 from the 2009 peaks at 1.5145. Only a fall below 1.3610 would retarget the 100 day MA at 1.3535. To open up the downside again the euro needs a break back below the 100 day MA around the 1.3540 level to re-target a move towards 1.3200 via 1.3410.
GBPUSD – Friday’s break below 1.6080 saw the cable push back towards the all important 1.6000 level, rebounding from 1.6030, and closing comfortably back above 1.6100 in the process. The range appears to 1.6000/1.6300 and trade the break out. The trend line resistance now at 1.6260/70 from the 2007 highs at 2.1160 is a key level as is 1.6300. A break above 1.6300 targets the 2010 highs at 1.6460. A close below 1.6000 is needed to target a move towards 1.5920 which is 38.2% retracement of the up move from the 1.5350 lows to the 1.6280 highs, followed by 1.5820.
EURGBP – we saw a brief pause on Friday to the gains in the single currency despite making a new February high at 0.8592, we saw the euro slip back to its break out level around the 0.8520 level. With momentum continuing to look stretched a break below 0.8520 has the potential to target 0.8480 in the short term, but a move to the highs this year around 0.8670 remains a risk while above 0.8480. A move back below 0.8480 is needed to target 0.8450 on the way to 0.8400/10, and retarget the trend line support, now at 0.8350.
USDJPY – weaker US bond yields continues to keep downward pressure on the dollar here as it approaches trend line support around 81.55 from the 80.25 lows. It has so far managed to hold above these levels, however a break could well target last years lows at 80.25. The US dollar needs to get back above the 83.20/30 area to re-target a move back towards the range highs, but more importantly than that US bond yields need to recover back above 3.5%, being as they seem to be at the moment, the primary drivers behind the falls in dollar yen.