M. Hewson: euro sotto pressione, il dollaro potrebbe rafforzarsi
La settimana sui mercati valutari si apre con la moneta unica che dovrà ora fare i conti anche con l’indebolimento del peso politico della Germania oltre che con una situazione sull’orlo del deafult del Portogallo: a queste condizioni, difficilmente l’Euro riuscirà ad oltrepassare la barriera di $1.4280 per puntare verso i massimi registrati lo scorso anno. Sterlina ancora sotto pressione in attesa del dato definitivo sul Pil del quarto trimestre, mentre potremmo assistere ad un rafforzamento del Dollaro Usa, già iniziato la scorsa settimana in scia a dichiarazioni “dissenzienti” sul quantitative easing da parte di Charles Plosser. Cambio DollaroYen pericolosamente vicino all’area 80.70: un ulteriore ribasso testerebbe la reattività delle banche centrali circa un secondo intervento congiunto a difesa della moneta nipponica.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 28th March 2011
For quite some time the markets had expected the EU summit at the end of last week to begin to tackle some of the issues with respect to the sovereign debt problems that have been causing problems in Europe for over a year now. Given EU leaders pre-disposition for kicking the can down the road over the past 12 months the markets somewhat naively thought that this might be the beginning of the first small steps in tackling the problems, until Portugal’s government failed last week in trying to pass another austerity budget, and provoking another crisis.
With Portugal remaining in denial about its need for a bailout the optimism that had been driving the single currency higher now looks hopelessly misplaced and weekend events in Germany could well cause further problems. Angela Merkel’s CDU coalition party suffered another setback in another state election at the weekend, as her party lost control of Baden Wurttemburg for the first time in over 50 years, to the Greens over concerns about her government’s nuclear policy, and possibly Europe policy as well.
Having lost two elections in a row in areas where there is normally strong support there must be doubts about whether Merkel’s policy on Europe has the support of the German people and this could call into question Germany’s role as Europe’s cash machine with respect to the bailout fund and any future agreements.
The pound continues to remain under pressure on its trade weighted index as doubts remain about the strength of the UK recovery. Economists are not expecting tomorrow’s final Q4 GDP to be revised from the last figure of -0.6%, however the pound has surprised in the past, and we could see a revision back to around -0.4%.
The US dollar has started to find some level of support on its trade weighted index at the end of last week on the back of some hawkish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser saying that the Fed will have to reverse its easy monetary With continued improvement in weekly jobless claims and this week’s March payrolls report, there could be further support for the beleaguered greenback in the week ahead, though we will have to wait until Friday for this report, while today we have pending home sales and personal income and spending data.
EURUSD – the support area at 1.4030 continues to underpin the single currency, however while the current momentum is unable to sustain a move above the twin resistances near 1.4280 we could expect to see a move lower back towards the 1.3850/60 area, otherwise the risk of a break higher remains. The larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4300/10, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs.
GBPUSD – last Wednesday’s daily bearish engulfing candle continues to weigh on the pound. This suggests we could well have seen the highs in the short term and we could be set to re-test towards the range lows around 1.5965. Having broken below the 55 day MA at 1.6080 the onus continues to shift to the downside.
The pound now needs to get back above 1.6080 to stabilise and re-target the 1.6180 level. A daily close below 1.6000 would target a move back towards 1.5820.
EURGBP – while the single currency is able to hold above 0.8750 the risk remains for a break above the recent highs around 0.8810 to re-test the highs of 2010 around 0.8940. For now the air seems a bit thin above 0.8810, and a failure here could well see a slide back towards the long term trend line now around 0.8690.
USDJPY – the market seems reluctant for now to test the resolve of the central banks having broken back above the 81.20 area late on Friday.
A key support remains around the 80.70 area which has been the lows post intervention so a break below here could well see the market look to test the resolve of the central banks in trying to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level. To stabilise we really need to see a move back through level seen post intervention around the 82.00 level, and re-test this years highs around 84.00.