M. Hewson: dollaro in attesa dei dati sui Non Farm Payrolls
Euro tra due fuochi, in attesa da una parte degli esiti degli stress test bancari irlandesi e dall’altra di un rialzo ormai certo dei tassi di interesse. Qualora i risultati fossero peggiori del previsto e le banche irlandesi si trovassero nella necessità di aumenti di capitale maggiori di quanto ci si aspetti, potremmo assistere sia ad ulteriori downgrade delle agenzie di rating che a richieste di salvataggio delle banche stesse. La Sterlina potrebbe continuare il suo recupero mentre il Dollaro non dovrebbe mostrare ampi movimenti in attesa del dato di domani sui Non Farm Payrolls. Estensione sopra gli 83.20 per il DollaroYen potrebbe comportare volatilità su questo cambio e non si esclude un ritorno verso 82.15.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 31th March 2011
The single currency continues to be pulled and pushed between the competing dynamics of higher interest rate expectations in the face of higher inflation, and concerns over peripheral downgrades, soaring bond yields and concerns about today’s Irish bank stress tests. Today’s Eurozone CPI figures should reaffirm the belief that the ECB will hike rates at its meeting next week with expectations of a year on year rise for March of 2.3%. On the matter of stress tests, if capital injections to support the banks prove to be higher than expected then we can expect to see Ireland on the receiving end of further ratings downgrades, especially if the Irish government ends up bailing out the remainder of the banking system as a result.
The pound enjoyed its best day in over a week yesterday rebounding from its recent lows against a basket of currencies on slightly more upbeat economic data as CBI retail sales growth unexpectedly jumped in March to +15 instead of the zero growth that had been expected. As far as the dollar is concerned all eyes remain on Friday’s non farm payrolls after the March ADP numbers came in pretty much in line with expectations around 201k, though February’s number was revised down.
Today we have weekly jobless where it is hoped that the recent downward trend will continue with expectations of 380k. Chicago PMI for March is also due out this afternoon, and is expected to drop slightly to 69, from February’s 71.2.
EURUSD – the single currency remains range bound for now capped by the trend line resistance around 1.4150 from the 1.4250 highs last week, and the area of support just below 1.4050. The key support area remains the 1.4020/30 area and until this level is taken out we can expect more of the same. We need to see a drop back through this 1.4020/30 to re-test the 1.3850/60 level. A break above 1.4150 suggests a re-test of the larger long term trend line resistance around 1.4300/10, which can be drawn from the all time highs at 1.6040 in 2008 remains a key barrier and if broken could well target a strong rally to 1.4580 and the 2010 highs.
GBPUSD – every time the cable threatens to move lower it somehow manages to find a way to claw itself back above the 1.6000 level having failed once again to follow through below 1.5965. The pound appears to be clawing back above the 1.6070/80 level but to stabilise further we would need to see a break back through and close above the 55 day MA around 1.6100 which would signal a probable re-test of the 1.6180/90 area, as the ranges of the past few weeks continues.
The two successive daily dojis earlier this week has kept the balance between bulls and bears finely balanced and a close below 1.6000 has the potential to target a move back towards 1.5800/20 which is also trend line support from last year’s lows at 1.4230.
EURGBP – has the euro rally run its course or are we still headed higher? Yesterday’s fall back below 0.8800 went as far as 0.8752; the support area referred to yesterday, but stopped short of trend line support now around 0.8735/40. While above this key area of support the recent up trend remains intact and the risk remains for a re-test of the highs of 2010 around 0.8940. Below 0.8740 re-targets 0.8690.
USDJPY – the US dollar re-tested its March highs just above 83.20 but was unable to get above them and the move up looks a touch overextended at this point and as such we could see a drift lower in the short term. Compared to last week the emphasis does appear to have changed now that the dollar is above the 82.00 post intervention highs, and the 55 day MA at 82.15. The objective remains the highs of this year having also taken out the resistance level around the 82.60 area, which was trend line resistance from the 2010 highs at 94.98. We could see a drift back towards support around the 55 day MA around 82.15 as well as the post intervention highs around 82.00. The key support remains around the 80.70 area which has been the lows, post intervention so a break below here could well see the market look to test the resolve of the central banks in trying to defend the psychologically important 80.00 level.