M. Hewson: il dollaro è destinato a restare sotto pressione
Dollaro americano destinato a rimanere ancora sotto pressione nella settimana in cui la Fed annuncerà la propria decisione sui tassi di interesse e con la pubblicazione del dato sul Pil del primo trimestre: gli investitori si preparano al prossimo scenario senza ancora aver ben inteso se il QE2 proseguirà oltre giugno oppure no. In tale contesto, le parole di JeanClaude Trichet, secondo le quali un dollaro più forte è soprattutto nell’interesse degli Usa, potrebbero essere lette come il tentativo di preservare da un ulteriore shock monetario i Paesi periferici della zona Euro e di porre un argine al rialzo dei rendimenti registrati nelle aste dei titoli di Stato Ue. La moneta unica si appresta a testare $1.50 e solo un’inversione che superasse al ribasso quota 1.4380 potrebbe riaprire un nuovo scenario ribassista. DollaroYen, la rottura al ribasso di quota 82 potrebbe provocare l’intervento delle banche centrali.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 26th April 2011
Trichet’s comments overnight that a stronger US dollar is in the interest of the US saw the single currency slip a little in Asia. These comments shouldn’t really be a surprise given that they are probably driven more by concern about the strength of the euro, and its effect on peripheral economies growth potential, than any concern about US dollar weakness.
Today’s short term T-bill auction by Spain of 3 and 6 month bills is not expected to cause any problems, but the yields will probably continue to be on the high side.
The US dollar continues to remain under pressure ahead of this week’s key FOMC rate meeting tomorrow and first quarter GDP figures, which are due on Thursday, to come in at 1.8%, revised down a number of times over the past few weeks on the back of increased costs and down from Q4’s 3.1%. As such markets will be closely scrutinising the first post FOMC meeting press conference for clues as to the committee’s post June QE2 thinking, given the recent public spats between the differing hawkish and dovish camps, and especially in light of the recent downgrade by S&P of the outlook for the US economy. Today’s US consumer confidence for April is expected to show how much rising fuel and food prices have had on sentiment with expectations of a slight increase from last months 63.4 to 64.5.
The pound is also set to be in the spotlight tomorrow with the first assessment of Q1 GDP growth for the UK, in light of MPC member Martin Weale’s comments at the end of last week that Q1 GDP growth could undershoot 0.7%. Expectations are for a rise of 0.5% which would cancel out the decline in Q4; however key amongst concerns for the MPC remains the UK consumer, who though despite showing remarkable resilience as shown by last weeks surprise recovery in retail sales for March remains increasingly pessimistic.
It is to be hoped that today’s CBI business optimism and industrial trends for April will show some improvement from last months figures, with expectations for business optimism to improve to 10, though industrial trends is expected to slip back from 5 to 2.
EURUSD – since posting new 15 month highs last week at 1.4650, the single currency has struggled to make much additional headway, however dips have been fairly shallow with support coming in around the 1.4500 area. However while above a broader support level around the 1.4380 area the way remains clear for a test towards the 1.5000 level. Only a break back below the 1.4280/90 area would signal a broader correction lower towards the 1.4020/30 level.
GBPUSD – last weeks break above the 2010 highs has seen the pound kick on briefly touching 1.6600 before slipping back. It has managed to hold above its break out level around the 1.6430 area, and while it does so the bias remains for further upside towards 1.6880, the 2009 highs. The 55 day MA at 1.6207 remains the key support having acted as support for the pound at last week’s lows. A break below the 55 day MA would in all probability open up the major support level on the downside of the current range around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – the single currency needs to recover above the 0.8870/80 level to retarget the recent highs above 0.8900 and re-test the October 2010 highs at 0.8940. The 0.8810/20 area should now act as support and how it behaves here should determine the next move. A break down here re-targets 0.8750; otherwise we could see another move higher.
USDJPY – the fall through the 82.00 raises concerns of further central bank intervention as the yen continues to gain on the back of the weak US dollar, and the next support around the 81.00 level comes into view. This is the 50% retracement of the up move from the lows at 76.25 to the recent highs at 85.55. The lack of any rally remains a concern and really needs a move back above the 82.55 area, and the 55 day MA to stabilise. The greenback then needs to recover back above the 83.25 level and 200 day MA, to re-target the trend line resistance from the 124.00 highs now at 85.05.