M. Hewson: il dollaro resta sotto pressione, attenzione al rafforzamento dello yen
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
Nonostante l’uccisione di Bin Laden, il Dollaro americano continua a rimanere sotto pressione tanto che il Dollar Index potrebbe testare i 71.30 toccati nel 2008. D’altra parte, la politica monetaria della Fed sembra orientata a perseguire l’allentamento quantitativo specialmente ora, in vista di una dato sul Pil del primo trimestre inferiore alle previsioni. L’Euro continua il suo rally, sostenuto dalle prospettive di ulteriori rialzi dei tassi, specialmente dopo al lettura del CPI al 2,8% di aprile: in questa fasce è lecito attendersi nuovi minimi e nuovi massimi al rialzo verso quota 1.50. In Asia e Oceania, a seguito della decisione della RBA di lasciare i tassi invariati, il Dollaro australiano dovrebbe oltrepassare quota 1.1000 per mettere a segno ulteriori guadagni, mentre continua il rafforzamento dello Yen sul Dollaro Usa, che potrebbe rompere il supporto posto a 81.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 3rd May 2011
This morning’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged, while a little surprising given last weeks higher than expected CPI figures, still serves to highlight these inflationary pressures, as the bank acknowledged that the high level of the dollar wouldn’t in of itself be enough to keep inflation in check. However concern about continued spill over effects of the Queensland floods may well have stayed the banks hand on this occasion.
The Aussie dollar needs to break above the 1.1000 area and yesterday’s highs to push on and make further gains. The US dollar continues to remain under pressure against a basket of currencies, despite yesterday’s Bin Laden bounce. The greenback looks set to test levels last seen in July 2008 around 71.30.
Last weeks FOMC meeting and press conference, merely confirmed that despite higher inflation expectations around the world, the US Federal Reserve will continue to keep monetary policy loose, especially in light of a weaker then expected Q1 GDP number.
This stance contrasts with other central banks tightening policy in the face of rising price pressures. It seems that improving economic data continues to take a
back seat to the Fed’s ultra loose fiscal policy. The single currency continues to be buoyed by the prospect of higher rates especially after last weeks higher than expected CPI figure for April at 2.8%, and ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the ECB. Today’s March PPI figures are expected to show a rise of 6.6% year on year.
Last weeks preliminary UK Q1 GDP figure showed growth of 0.5% for the UK economy suggesting that the UK economy has been trading broadly flat over the last 6 months. With this in mind this weeks UK PMI data is likely to prove fairly important in the context of growth perceptions for Q2. We start today with April’s manufacturing PMI which is expected to slip back slightly from March’s rather disappointing 57.1 to 57.
EURUSD – higher highs and higher lows continue to prevail as the single currency continues to close in on the 1.5000 level. The longer term resistance
remains 1.5145, the 2009 highs. Support now comes in around the 1.4770 level, 1.4650 and 1.4520. Only a break below 1.4520 could see a deeper correction towards 1.4320, while a break back below the 1.4280/90 area would signal a broader correction lower towards the 1.4020/30 level.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to remain well bid against the dollar gradually making ground above the December 2009 highs at 1.6720. Unlike the single currency it remains some way short of its 2009 highs at 1.7045, however while above 1.6430 the break-out level above the 2010 highs the upside momentum remains intact. The next target remains 1.6880, the November 2009 highs on a break above 1.6750. A fall below 1.6430 could well see a test towards the 55 day MA at 1.6260 which remains the key support having acted as support for the pound in April. A break below the 55 day MA would in all probability open up the major support level on the downside of the current range around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – the October 2010 highs at 0.8940 remains the key obstacle to further gains in the single currency and a test towards the 0.9000 level. Last week’s test
failed to take out that resistance and while it does so the risk of a fall back towards the 0.8750 area remains. This would be confirmed on a break below trend line support at 0.8840 from the February lows at 0.8355.
USDJPY – the dollar looks set to break below the 80.90/81.00 level which is the 50% retracement of the up move from the lows at 76.25 to the recent highs at 85.55. This level needs to hold to prevent a fall towards the 61.8% level at 79.90. The lack of any rally remains a concern and really needs a move back above the
82.30 area, and the 55 day MA to stabilise. The greenback then needs to recover back above the 83.15 level and 200 day MA, to re-target the trend line resistance from the 124.00 highs now at 84.85.