M. Hewson: Bini Smaghi spinge al rialzo la moneta unica
Euro in rafforzamento su Dollaro e Sterlina a seguito delle parole di Bini Smaghi secondo il quale la Bce non può rimandare il rialzo dei tassi a causa dei problemi dei Paesi periferici, rimarcando la sua opposizione ad ogni tipo di ristrutturazione del debito greco. Il livello da tenere sotto osservazione è quello di $1.4290. Dollaro detinato ad ulteriori indebolimenti a seguito delle pubblicazione delle minute della Fed che hanno mostrato un’evidente spaccatura all’interno del Fomc circa le prossime mosse di politica monetaria. Cambio DollaroYen ancora fermo nel canale 81/82.80.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 19th May 2011
Last nights FOMC minutes showed that there was significant discussion amongst members of how to go about normalising monetary policy post QE2, with a number of Fed members wary of rising inflation risks. Nonetheless most members felt that rate policy was the best way to achieve that and then selling off assets afterwards. In any case this isn’t likely to happen any time soon especially with US unemployment remaining at historically high levels, and as such the US dollar is likely to remain on the weak side, unless inflation expectations start to move higher. Today’s weekly jobless claims are expected to remain above 400k, coming in at 420k, down slightly from last weeks 430k.
The pound has continued its recent weak tone after the publication of the latest minutes of the May monetary policy committee meeting showed no change in voting patterns. There had been some speculation that Martin Weale may have wavered in his hawkish intent, but that was dispelled, despite recent weak economic data. Andrew Sentance signed off his tenure with another call for a 0.5% hike leaving only two hawks remaining on the committee, and new boy Ben Broadbent’s intentions as yet unclear.
Despite disappointing unemployment data yesterday it is to be hoped that last months extended Easter break and Royal Wedding could have given the April retail sales figures a significant tourist related boost with expectations of a rise of 0.8%, up from March’s 0.2%.
The pound has come off particularly badly against the single currency which was boosted by some particularly hawkish comments from ECB member Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi when he stated that the ECB cannot delay rate hikes to help peripheral states. He also reiterated his opposition to any type of restructuring of Greek debt, soft or otherwise, putting the ECB on a possible collision course with EU politicians. The Greece issue remains the wild card with respect to the single currency and while unresolved remains a very dark cloud on the horizon, and higher rates will only exacerbate the situation.
EURUSD – the 55 day MA at 1.4290 remains a key resistance level and continues to hem the single currency in on the topside. A break above 1.4290 however could well target a quick run up to 1.4380/1.4400. On the downside the 1.4180 level is a key support and a key barrier to a test towards the 200 week MA around the 1.4000 area, a break of which could see a test of 1.3905 and the 50% retracement of the up move from the 1.2870 lows to the recent peaks at 1.4940.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to struggle at the 55 day MA and yesterday’s weakness saw the move to 1.6130 we had been looking for with respect to the head and shoulders break first mentioned some days ago. The next support level lies around the 1.6060 level which is trend line support from the lows last May at 1.4230. Pullbacks should continue to find resistance around yesterday’s highs and while below 1.6290 the focus remains on the major support level on the downside, which remains around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – against expectations the upper line resistance at 0.8785 gave way and triggered further gains towards the 0.8850 level. We now have to decide whether this is a short squeeze or change in trend. There is a significant congestion resistance between 0.8850 and 0.8870 which could well provoke a pullback towards the 0.8780 area. The break higher certainly requires a strategy reassessment and while above 0.8780 further gains look likely having overcome the 55 day MA, which means a re-test of the 0.8930 area in the longer term.
USDJPY – the yen remains a bit of a conundrum due to soft US bond yields; however a weaker yen scenario remains the preferred one, especially given that the economy fell back into recession due to the earthquake with Q1 GDP declining 0.9%. After the sharp move higher the US dollar slipped back below 81.00 rebounding from 80.90 but still remains on course for a move towards the 55 day MA at 82.05, with a break targeting the 200 day MA at 82.80. Longer term support remains around the 80.20 area which is trend line support from the all-time lows at 76.25. A move below 79.80 could well target further losses towards 78.80.