M. Hewson: prosegue la marcia al ribasso della moneta unica
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michal Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
La moneta unica prosegue la sua marcia al ribasso: la rottura del supporto a $1,3970 aprirebbe la strada verso 1,3600. A disegnare il ritracciamento dell’Euro tutta una serie di notizie negative principalmente riconducibili ai timori di un possibile default del debito greco, nonostante l’annunciato programma di privatizzazioni da 50 miliardi di euro. Le indiscrezioni circa un prossimo downgrading del rating delle banche inglesi da parte di Moody’s potrebbe intonare una seduta negativa anch per la Sterlina, a prescindere dai dati sulle finanze pubbliche di aprile. Il cambio DollaroYen deve superare il livello di 82.01 per dirigersi con decisione verso 84.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 24th May 2011
The single currency has continued its weaker tone, weighed down by investor unease with respect to a possible Greek default, as well as concern that the heavy electoral defeat in regional elections of the Spanish government could well trigger a reining back of austerity measures as voters push back on further austerity measures. Further ratings downgrades have also spooked investors after ratings agency Fitch followed up its Greece downgrade of last week, by downgrading five of the country’s banks, placing them on negative watch.
The ratings agency also turned its gaze onto Belgium, downgrading its outlook to negative, citing higher political risk due to its lack of a government. The Greek government in an attempt to assuage market concerns about an imminent default announced the first wave of a €50bn privatisation program with sales of ports at Piraeus and Thessaloniki and Hellenic Postbank. In economic data out later German Q1 GDP is likely to be re-affirmed at 1.5%, while German IFO expectations for May are expected to slip slightly to 107 from April’s 107.7.
Today’s focus in the UK was expected to be on the UK public finances data for April, however talk that ratings agency Moody’s is looking at downgrading the debt of Britain’s banks as the deadline for the withdrawal of UK government support draws near, could well see some sterling weakness irrespective of this morning’s figures. To round off the ratings agency theme Chinese agency Dagong has downgraded the UK from AA- to A+, outlook negative, citing stagflation and deteriorating debt repayment capability.
Back to the public finances and the first month of the new fiscal year is expected to give a benchmark of the extent of the effect the new tax hikes have had with a figure of £4.4bn expected. Markets will be looking for early evidence that Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne’s fiscal measures are starting to bear fruit by showing an improvement on the April 2009 and 2010 figures, which were £7.3bn and £5.4bn respectively. In the US new home sales for April are expected to increase to 1.7%, a significant drop from March’s 11.1% rise.
EURUSD – yesterday’s decline in the single currency ran into support between the 100 day MA at 1.3970 and the 200 week MA at 1.3999. A combined close below these two levels could well open the downside towards 1.3600. The next target would then be 1.3905 initially which is 50% retracement of the 1.2870/1.4940 up move and then on to 1.3660 which is the 61.8% retracement. While above 1.3970 the single currency will be susceptible to pullbacks towards the 1.4250 area.
GBPUSD – the pound has continued it’s slightly weaker tone against the US dollar but has as yet been unable to break below the long term trend line support at 1.6080, drawn from the lows last May at 1.4230. The key support from the February and March lows remains between 1.5960 and the 1.6000 area, while the 200 day MA sits just below that at 1.5935. Cable traders need to be prepared for sharp pullbacks with resistance at 1.6180 and the 55 day MA around 1.6290/1.6300.
EURGBP – a marginal new 2 month low at 0.8665 saw the single currency rebound as from around its 2 week lows as buyers re-emerged below the 0.8700 area. The 0.8620 area remains a key level being 61.8% retracement of the recent up move from the February lows at 0.8355 to the highs earlier this month at 0.8940. However it would appear that this cross remains stuck in a range of 0.8660/0.8860 for the moment with resistance in the middle at the 0.8750/60 level
USDJPY – as suspected yesterday the pullback in the yen rebounded from the 81.20/30 after the failure to break above the 55 day MA at 82.01. It still needs a daily close above the 55 day MA at 82.01 to target a move towards the 200 day MA at 82.80, a break of which targets the 84.00 level. While 10 year US bond yields continue to find support around their 200 day MA at 3.0850% the prospects of a higher US dollar remain intact, but will be susceptible to pullbacks while below this key level. Longer term support remains around the 80.65 area which is trend line support from the all-time lows at 76.25.