C. Cieszyinski: il dollaro resta sotto pressione
Seduta odierna caratterizzata da un affievolimento dei timori relativi ai debiti pubblici, tanto che anche le piazze di Milano e Madrid hanno segnato dei progressi e i rendimenti si sono assestati. In questo quadro, l’Euro ha beneficiato della debolezza del Dollaro, rimasto sotto pressione a causa del dato deludente sulla vendita di case esistenti che delineano uno scenario economico in rallentamento e che non consentirà alla Fed di iniziare a rialzare i tassi alla fine del QE2.
Anche oggi si è assistito ad un rafforzamento della Sterlina sui dati riguardanti la fiducia dei consumatori e, d’altro canto, all’indebolimento dello Yen dopo che Fitch ha tagliato l’outlook sul Giappone da stabile a negativo. Dollaro Neozelandese e Corona Norvegese sono state le commodity currency più apprezzate. Anche le materie prime sembrano concludere la settimana meglio di quanto non la avessero iniziata: oro e argento continuano a mettere a segno nuovi rialzi rafforzando il loro status di investimento rifugio. Lunedì Wall Street sarà chiusa in occasione del Memorial Day.
EUROPEAN MARKET WRAP
Toronto – 27th May 2011
Pre-Holiday Trading Ahead of a Busy Week
US equities have started the day in positive territory today as markets continue to claw back Monday’s losses. Stocks have been able to shrug off neutral (Personal Income and Spending) to negative (Pending home sales) economic data suggesting that many in the US appear ready to head off for the Memorial Day weekend in a good mood.
European indices have posted moderate gains today although the FTSE remains below 6,000 and the CAC continues to struggle with 4,000 while the Dax holds above 7,000. The IBEX and MIB have also been posting strong gains today suggesting that contagion fears have been easing for the moment. UK shares have been led higher today by financials, including Man Group up 2.9%, Lloyds up 2.9% and RBoS up 2.8%. Resource producers have been climbing on the back of improving commodity prices including Antofagasta up 4.4% and Rio Tinto up 2.6%. In the US, gains have been led by the technology sector with Advanced Analogic up 54% on a takeover bid from Skyworks, Marvell up 11.1% on positive earnings and guidance and Broadcom up 5,5%.
In currency markets today, USD has been under pressure after pending home sales fell by 11.6% in April, again suggesting that the US economy remains too weak to allow the Fed to start tightening after QE2 ends next month. JPY has also been weakening after Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on Japan’s credit rating to negative from stable on concerns over the country’s debt load. With these two currencies perceived as less attractive, we have seen defensive capital flow toward CHF and precious metals.
Sterling has been strong again today after consumer confidence and house price data came in negative but not as bad as the street had feared. EUR has been benefitting from USD weakness and while treasury yields on the continent have been stable today, ongoing concern over Greece continues to put a cap on gains. Resource currencies have been advancing on the back of recovering commodity process, led by NZD and NOK.
Commodities appear set to finish the week better than where they started as their base building process continues. The energy group continues to consolidate this week’s gains with Brent trading near $115/bbl and US crude trading above $100/bbl. Gold and silver also continue to steadily climb as they reassert their role as havens for capital.
With the US closed for a holiday Monday, it appears we may be heading for a quiet weekend. This could be the calm before the storm, however, with a very busy economic calendar for later next week including the US employment report and global PMI data.