M. Hewson: l’inflazione globale sempre sotto i riflettori
CMC Markets e Finanzaonline
Corso presso la sede di CMC Markets di Milano in Corso Venezia, 5
Il trading con le streghe applicato ai CFD
Relatori: Marco Berton e Riccardo Designori (Finanzaonline.com)
• Cosa sono le 3 streghe
• Come sfruttare il trading della scadenza per l’operatività con i CFD
• Visione di insieme dei mercati finanziari (forex, CFD azioni e CFD obbligazioni)
• Correlazione tra le varie asset class e commenti
• Reazione degli strumenti ai dati macro (alle 15:55 Università del Michigan) e commento alla lettura macro
• Sfruttare la volatilità e seguire i volumi con il trading di breve, con esempi pratici di trading
• Lo swing trading di breve sfruttando le caratteristiche dei CFD
Venerdì, 17 giugno 2011 14:00 – 18:00
Nessuna conseguenza di rilievo sull’Euro dal downgrading di Standard and Poor’s sul debito greco:la moneta unica ha fatto segnare i minimi contro il Franco Svizzero soprattutto a causa delle divisioni all’interno dei policymakers europei sulla soluzione da trovare per il rebus greco; il fatto di aver mantenuto quota $1,4320 potrebbe aumentare le possibilità di rimbalzo verso 1,4520 e 1,4660. Nel frattempo non accennano a diminuire le pressioni inflazionistiche globali: questa notte la Cina ha registrato un aumento dei prezzi per il mese di maggio al ritmo più elevato degli ultimi tre anni e anche in Europa il dato è cresciuto rispetto al mese precedente, suggerendo la probabilità di ulteriori rialzi dei tassi nei mesi a venire. Sul cambio DollaroYen, se il biglietto verde dovesse scendere sotto i minimi di maggio vedremmo ulteriori cali verso 78.85.
London – 14th June 2011
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
The decision by S&P to cut Greece three notches to world’s lowest credit rating at “CCC” with a negative outlook, on an increased likelihood of default didn’t really hurt the single currency that much yesterday. It had already made record lows against the Swiss franc and had been under pressure most of the day on the back of divisions between the ECB and EU politicians about how best to deal with the debt situation and a default scenario. As it is Portuguese and Spanish bond yields continued their moves higher with Portuguese 10 year yields hitting their highest ever post euro level, at 10.7%.
While this situation continues to bubble away in the background, inflation expectations took centre stage overnight after Chinese inflation for May rose again, rising at its fastest level in almost three years. In signs that recent policy tightening may not be having the effect it needs to May CPI prices increased to 5.5%, up from April’s 5.3% and increased the likelihood of further tightening measures in the near term.
Retail sales for the year to May also increased from 16.5% to 16.6%, slightly below expectations while May industrial production rose by 13.3%, above expectations of 13.1%.
UK May CPI data out later this morning is expected to remain sticky remaining unchanged from April’s 4.5% figure, however last nights intervention from MPC policymaker Martin Weale could well ratchet up the pressure for a rate hike after he admitted that rates need to rise, irrespective of whether the recovery starts to falter, in the event that inflation expectations become entrenched. The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as the Japanese economy continues to struggle with the after effects of the earthquake earlier this year. In the US May retail sales are expected to slip back 0.5% as the US consumer continues to retrench in the face of rising prices and a falling housing market.
EURUSD – the single currency managed to hold above the 1.4320 support level referred to in yesterday’s note, which is the 50% retracement level of the up move from the May lows at 1.3970 to the 1.4695 highs. The subsequent rebound could extend towards 1.4520 and even 1.4660 which is trend line resistance from the May highs at 1.4940. The bearish weekly candlestick from the beginning of May continues to prevail while this trend line caps. A break below 1.4320 targets 1.4250 the 61.8% retracement level of the same move. Major support remains at 1.3970, the 100 day SMA, and the 200 week SMA at 1.4010.
GBPUSD – the pound’s failure to break below 1.6200 as well as its long term trend line support at 1.6175 from May 2010 lows at 1.4230 has seen the cable rebound strongly. A break here would have refocused attention on the major support between 1.5965 and 1.6000, doubly so given that the 200 day MA also comes in at these levels as well. Yesterday’s rally saw the pound break back through the resistance at 1.6340 the 55 day MA which had acted as a key pivot over the last month or so. The next resistance level could well come in around 1.6460 which is trend line resistance from the May highs at 1.6740.
EURGBP – the 0.8790 area has so far acted as support for the recent weakness in the single currency. This level is 50% retracement of the 0.8605/0.8975 up move. A break here would look to target 0.8745 the 61.8% level. Resistance should come in around the 0.8830 area and Friday’s lows. Only a move back above the 0.9000 level would shift focus back to the topside. Intraday resistance can be found at 0.8890.
USDJPY – the stodginess in 10 year US bond yields continues to drag on the dollar here after the break below the 200 day MA in the last week of May. With yields remaining below 3% and the 200 day MA at 3.1120% the dollar needs a strong recovery here to shift sentiment towards the high 80’s. While 80.70 caps downside pressure will continue to weigh, however it would be surprising if the dollar dropped much below the 79.60/70 area in the short term. If the dollar falls below these May lows then we could well see further declines towards 78.85 and the lowest ever daily close on this pair.