M. Hewson: Papandreou incassa la fiducia e l’euro si dirige verso quota 1,45
L’annunciato voto di fiducia incassato dal Governo greco ha comportato la chiusura delle posizioni short su quasi tutti i mercati con l’Euro che, dopo aver oltrepassato $1,4380, punta direttamente a 1,4460 con 1,45 come livello chiave. L’attenzione si sposta ora verso il voto sul piano di austerity annuciato per il prossimo 28 giugno, vero e proprio test precondizionale per poter sbloccare gli aiuti necessari al Governo per far fronte alle scadenze dei prossimi mesi. La Sterlina potrebbe indebolirsi ulteriormente sui timori che il Governo Cameron possa trovare ostacoli nel raggiungimento degli obiettivi fiscali fissati per quest’anno e sulle recenti dichiarazioni circa possibili ulteriori stimoli all’economia britannica. Il cambio DollaroYen rimane inchiodato a 80 mentre il DollaroAustraliano potrebbe tornare presto sopra 1.07 in uno scenario che vede una spinta dell’Euro verso 1,45, l’Oro verso $1550 e nessuna vera ragione che suggerisca in questo momento di acquistare dollari americani. In aggiunta, l’imminente dichiarazione della Fed circa lo stato dell’economia americana potrebbe aprire una nuova fase di debolezza del biglietto verde che proseguirebbe almeno finchè non venga messa definitivamente la parola fine ad ogni velleità di un terzo round di Quantitative Easing. Il mercato delle materie prime rimane focalizzato sulle mosse di politica monetaria della Cina in attesa di capire se le annunciate misure restrittive porteranno ad un hard lending.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 22th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Last nights Greece “no confidence” vote went pretty much as expected with the Greek government winning by 155 votes to 129. Reports yesterday that China had stated that it remains willing to help boost economic growth in Europe, had also helped boost the single currency in the lead-up to the vote.
Attention is now expected to turn towards next week’s austerity vote on the 28th June, the passing of which EU ministers have said has to be a precondition to any further bail-out money.
After last nights excitement the focus now turns to today’s release of the latest Bank of England minutes in the aftermath of yesterday’s public finance data for May which came in marginally below expectations at £15bn. Even though this represented an improvement of 6% on last year’s numbers, the pound slipped back as concerns grew that the government may have trouble meeting its fiscal targets for this year.
Further weakness was prompted by comments by MPC member Paul Fisher that the committee hadn’t ruled out further stimulus for the faltering UK economy. Today’s minutes are also expected to show that the hawk camp has fallen by one after Andrew Sentance’s departure, with expectations of a seven vote for a holding of rates. New member Ben Broadbent is unlikely to rock the boat at his first meeting, but we could get an insight into his thoughts going forward.
In the US we also have the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve is expected to downgrade its growth forecasts for the US economy and Ben Bernanke will give further insights into his thinking with respect to US monetary policy with respect to the imminent expiry of QE2.
EURUSD – the break above the 1.4320/30 area has seen the single currency break above 1.4380 which is the 50% retracement of the down move from the recent highs at 1.4700 to the lows at 1.4075. The next resistance is at 1.4460 which is the 61.8% level. Intraday support now comes in around the resistance at 1.4320/30. 1.4500 still remains a key level given that it is last week’s highs. The euro needs a daily close below 1.4150 and the 100 day MA to target the 200 week SMA at 1.4010, which would be the last remaining barrier to a test towards 1.3770.
GBPUSD – cable continues to find support despite a brief dip below 1.6180 yesterday as it looks to push towards resistance between 1.6280, and 1.6300. Trend line resistance at 1.6410 from the 1.6745 highs is the key barrier the pound needs to overcome to alleviate the downside risk. For further losses to unfold the pound needs to break below the 1.6080 lows despite the inconclusive breaching of the trend line support from the May 2010 lows late last week. The solid support around the 1.6000 area remains a key factor with respect to further losses and we need to see a sustained break of this major support between 1.5965 and 1.6000, and the 200 day MA also comes in at these levels as well.
EURGBP – yesterday’s break above resistance at the 0.8850/60 area has seen the single currency spill over towards the 0.8900 area. It is currently bumping against the 61.8% resistance of the 0.8975/0.8726 down move at 0.8880. The range of 0.8700/0.8900 looks set to continue though we could overspill to 0.8940. Above 0.8940 re-targets 0.9000. The 0.8780 area remains a key barrier to a re-test of the lows of last week at 0.8715. It needs a consolidated break below 0.8745 to reopen a return towards 0.8700 and 0.8680.
USDJPY – no change here as the dollar continues to find support around the 80.00 area as it continues to find upside progress heavy going. Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80, while resistance remains around the 81.00 area and behind that at the 55 day MA at 81.45. A slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
AUD Pushes Back To 1.06 As Greece Fears Ease
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The Greece situation in recent days has at least shown signs of progression rather than stagnation. And with the broader market feeling slightly better about itself, currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen took a back-seat to the Euro, Sterling and Aussie dollar. The march higher in equities and the drop in the Volatility Index below the psychological 20 level provided some comfort to a market which is desperate to latch onto any hint of good news.
In light of recent developments, there is a chance that the Greece situation could move to the periphery of the market consciousness for the next month or so. With Euro eyeing a run back to 1.45, the gold price approaching $1550 and still no great reason to buy US Dollars from an investment point of view, the Australian dollar could be back trading north of 1.07 in the short term.
The Australian dollar popped back up to the 1.06 level overnight, after sinking three quarters of a cent following the RBA minutes. It is quite clear that the RBA does not want to go against the grain and raise rates whilst conditions in Australia and abroad have hit a “soft patch”. Elsewhere, the upcoming FOMC statement could lead to another round of US dollar weakness and this trend may continue until such time as any inkling of QE3 is unequivocally put to rest.
Markets Weaken Intraday During Asia Session
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Institutional Equities Dealer David Barrett-Lennard)
Overnight, commodity markets were somewhat muted in comparison to equity markets. Commodity markets seemed to focus more on China and the ongoing polar views on whether Chinese authorities need to tighten further, or whether their tightening measures to date have the economy set for a hard landing. The Chinese market was weaker today, which also weighed on Asian markets.
The action of equity markets overnight is a testament to the short positioning of investors in the last few weeks. Equity markets ripped higher on just a sniff of a resolution to Greece’s issues. However, there are still numerous hurdles to overcome before Greece actually receives the funds to help it meet its most imminent obligations – most imminently the authorisation of the necessary austerity package.
The rally of the last few days seems to be ‘built on sandstone’ at this stage, primarily as a result of shorts closing out. However, if the good news emanating from Europe/Greece continues, this may well be the footing to provide confidence for investors to actually start buying this market. We are not out of the woodwork yet, but seeing some green on the screens and knowing that a lot of shorts have closed out, goes a long way to soothing the very negative sentiment we have experienced over the last few weeks.