M. Hewson: le minute BoE allontanano l’ipotesi di una stretta monetaria, sterlina in calo
La Fed non fornisce indicazioni circa il ritiro del programma di Quantitative Easing e questa “non azione” sembra aver fornito un supporto di breve termine al Dollaro. Si muove invece verso un indebolimento la Sterlina, a seguito dei timori della BoE circa la necessità anche in Gran Bretagna di una politica di allentamento qualora si rafforzasse lo scenario ribassista: in questo contesto un rialzo dei tassi sembra essere l’ipotesi più remota in assoluto.Eurodollaro bloccato sotto $1,4460 e situazione ingessata anche per il cambio DollaroYen, fermo a 80. Questa notte i mercati australiani hanno chiuso in perdita scontando così l’ultima riduzione sulle stime di crescita del Pil americano e soprattutto l’incertezza direzionale mostrata dalla Fed: prende forma il quadro peggiore per i mercati azionari con gli investitori che dopo due giorni di guadagni hanno preferito prendere profitto e dirigere i flussi altrove.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 23th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Last nights FOMC meeting didn’t produce any surprises of note with the Fed downgrading its growth forecasts for 2011, raising its unemployment estimate and nudging up its core PCE inflation target.
What the Fed didn’t do, and what many in the market were hoping it would do given the recent slow down and deterioration in economic growth, is give any clues as to a possible QE3. The Fed also gave no indication that it would start withdrawing stimulus, leaving it at current levels of around $2.6trn. This inaction appears to have given the US dollar some short term support.
Earlier in the day the pound got hit quite hard after the Bank of England minutes showed that the committee was concerned that further QE might be warranted if downside risks materialised. This and a change in voting patterns from 6-3 to a 7-2 in voting for a rise in rates, due to Sentance leaving the committee, and the prospects of a rate hike in the near future look more remote than ever. In economic data out today European and German manufacturing and services flash PMI data for June is expected to show continued growth, albeit at a slightly slower pace than May’s figures, though concerns remain about the global economy after disappointing Chinese flash PMI for June earlier today, which only just managed to stay in expansion territory at 50.1.
In the US, markets will be hoping that the recent downward trend in weekly jobless claims continues, with expectations of a figure of 410k, down slightly from 414k, while later on, US new home sales for May are expected to decline 4%, after the rise in April of 7.3%.
EURUSD – the single currency has so far been unable to test the 1.4460 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move. This remains the key barrier to a move towards 1.4500/20 and last weeks highs and the trend line resistance at 1.4595 from the 1.4940 highs. Intraday support now comes in around the previous resistance at 1.4320/30. The euro needs a daily close below 1.4150 and the 100 day MA to target the 200 week SMA at 1.4010, which would be the last remaining barrier to a test towards 1.3770.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s failure at 1.6265, just below the 1.6280 resistance saw the pound tumble below support at 1.6170/80 as tested below the May lows at 1.6065 as well as the 50% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move at 1.6045. The 200 day MA at 1.6030 has so far prevented any further losses and this remains a key support on a closing basis along with the solid support around the 1.6000 area. This support remains a key factor with respect to further losses and we would need to see a sustained break of this major support as well as the lows between 1.5965 and 1.6000, and the 200 day MA at 1.6025 to open up a move towards 1.5880, which is the 61.8% retracement of the same 1.5340/1.6745 move.
EURGBP – further sterling weakness saw the single currency push strongly through the 0.8900 level before running into trend line resistance at 0.8950, from the 0.9045 highs seen in May. A break above the 0.8950 area re-targets the 0.9000 area and the highs in May. While not throwing in the towel yet on further euro weakness the scenario has taken a knock. We need to see a break below 0.8880 to alleviate the upside risk and re-test the congestion area of earlier this week at 0.8840/50. The 0.8780 area remains a key barrier to a re-test of the lows of last week at 0.8715. It needs a consolidated break below 0.8745 to reopen a return towards 0.8700 and 0.8680.
USDJPY – no change here as the dollar continues to find support around the 80.00 area as it continues to find upside progress heavy going. Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80, while resistance remains around the 81.00 area and behind that at the 55 day MA at 81.10. A slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Head of Sales Trading Matt Lewis)
Weaker US GDP forecasts and central bank uncertainty has led the Australian market lower today. Overnight we have seen the US Federal Reserve dial down their GDP growth forecasts for 2011 from 3.2% to 2.8%. Alarmingly, this is not the first revision downwards as in January the Fed was forecasting growth of 3.7%. Basically in the US we are looking at a situation of rising unemployment, rising inflation and with the revised GDP forecasts overnight it sent global markets downwards to finish at their lows and that negative sentiment has flowed through to our market today, down 20 points in afternoon trade and looking like closing on our session lows similar to the US.
More concerning for market sentiment moving forward were US FED chairman Bernanke’s comments stating that “we do not have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting”. Markets don’t like uncertainty so we are seeing a bit of a sell off today, with traders taking some money off the table after the past two sessions of gains. Central banks globally have been coming under the spotlight of late, being forced to revise growth estimates lower, with even the RBA’s latest minutes pointing to a less hawkish or less aggressive tightening stance and a more wait and see approach for July data before any further monetary policy intervention. In corporate news today we have finally seen an agreement on the structure of the NBN and TLS.
Although the details of the deal appear positive for TLS, and was widely anticipated, it looks like a sell the fact scenario today in terms of Telstra’s price weakness, sending its shares below $3. In more positive news, we have seen mid cap uranium producer PDN outperform the market strongly again today with its shares up over 9% in afternoon trade. PDN’s shares price has been hammered over the past few weeks, down over 30%, which has seen it touted as a possible takeover target as a value play at these levels, with Canadian Uranium giant Cameco speculated to have interest.