M. Hewson: instabilità protagonista assoluta dei mercati
Annunci di conclusione erratica per la settimana in corso, che ha visto l’instabilità come protagonista assoluta dei mercati, con le oscillazioni tra le più ampie mai registrate e che hanno abolito le mezze misure soprattutto per quanto riguarda i mercati valutari. L’ultima dimostrazione in ordine di tempo si è avuta questa notte quando l’Eurodollaro è prima sceso di 1, 8 centesimi per poi rimbalzare di 1,5 cent sull’approvazione del piano quinquennale da parte di FMI e Ue. Sarebbe comunque estremamente naive pensare che questo possa alleviare i timori del mercato, se non temporaneamente: il vero test per capire se vi sarà o meno una svolta positiva arriverà la prossima settimana quando il piano dovrà passare dal voto del Parlamento prima e della popolazione poi, che potrebbe dimostrare una dura reazione di fronte ad altri cinque anni di austerity. Dal punto di vista tecnico, per l’Euro ora le probabilità di un rialzo o di un ribasso sono perfettamente bilanciate: $1,4320 diventa la nuova resistenza oltre la quale ipotizzare un recupero verso 1,4460 mentre lo scenario ribassista si concretizzerebbe sotto 1,4020. Ipotesi di nuova debolezza anche per la Sterlina che ieri ha rotto al ribasso la media mobile a 200 giorni: l’ultima cosa di cui il pound ha bisogno è lo speech del Governatore della BoE Mervyn King, data la sua tradizionale predisposizione a far perdere posizioni alla moneta ogni volta che parla. Non sfugge allo swing del risk-on risk-off neppure il Dollaro Australiano che potrebbe nuovamente testare il livello di 1.0450; più in generale, la situazione di incertezza rimarrà tale finchè gli sviluppi provenienti dall’Europa e i dati americani non saranno tali da ridurre anzichè aumentare l’ansia dei mercati.
London – 24th June 2011
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Yesterday’s losses in the single currency ended up being pared back after a late agreement of a 5 year austerity plan for Greece was approved by EU and IMF inspectors, boosting optimism that a default might be avoided. It would however be naïve in the extreme to believe that this would alleviate market concerns. The first real test will come next week when the Greek parliament comes to vote on it, and given that they didn’t like the last austerity budget very much, the odds are that the new one won’t find much favour either. In the event the budget does get passed you then have the small matter of implementing it and that could be where it all unravels if the scenes outside the Greek parliament the other night were anything to go by.
The Greek population appear to have contracted a rather nasty bout of austerity fatigue and the thought of another five years of rather unpleasant fiscal medicine may not go down that well.
After the disappointment of yesterday’s PMI data expectations will be high that this mornings German Ifo Business climate data for June will not show too much of a deterioration from May’s figure of 114.20, with expectations of 113.40. Ifo expectations are also expected to slip back slightly from 107.40 to 106.30. After the sharp declines in sterling this week the last thing the pound needs is Bank of England governor Mervyn King giving a press conference, especially with his predisposition for talking the pound lower.
The Bank will be releasing its Financial Stability report and it is likely that there will a number of references to the events unfolding in Europe and the sovereign debt crisis and any spill over effects that may pertain to the UK.
In the US the final revision of Q1 GDP will be released and after the negative reaction yesterday post FOMC and the disappointing weekly jobless claims number, markets will be hoping for a positive surprise. Expectations are for the revision to improve slightly to 1.9% from 1.8%.
US durable goods for May are also due out, and expectations are for an improvement from April’s disappointing 3.6% decline, with a positive figure of 1.5% predicted.
EURUSD – the single currency’s plunge below its 100 day MA yesterday was quickly reversed as it rebounded from just above its trend line support at 1.4110/15 from the May lows at 1.3970. The failure to close below the 100 day MA now at 1.4185 keeps the balance of probabilities evenly balanced with respect to a move higher or lower. aving broken below the 1.4320/30 area yesterday this should now act as resistance on an interim basis. The broader resistance level remains at 1.4460, the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move. he main support level remains around the 1.4020 area where the 200 week MA sits.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s break below the 200 day MA at 1.6030 saw the pound push below the 1.6000 level and rebound from the 1.5940 area, which also happens to be the March lows. The close below 1.6030 shifts the focus towards a test of the 1.5880 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Any rallies need to overcome 1.6030 and close back above it to stabilise in the medium term. A move back above 1.6030 could well re-target the 1.6120/30 area initially.
EURGBP – the failure to break through the trend line resistance at 0.8950, from the 0.9045 highs seen in May saw the single currency sell-off sharply, breaking below 0.8880 and hitting the congestion area of earlier this week at 0.8840/50 before rebounding strongly. A break above this 0.8950 area would undoubtedly shift the focus towards the 0.9000 area and the highs in May, but I’m not ready to throw the towel in yet on further euro weakness. Having acted as strong support yesterday the 0.8840/50 remains the key support preventing a move towards the 0.8780 area.
USDJPY – no change here as the dollar again found support around the 80.00 area. Despite rallying to 80.80 yesterday the dollar was unable to break through the 81.00 area and so the wait goes on.
Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80, while resistance remains around the 81.00 area and behind that at the 55 day MA at 81.10. A slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The fickle mindset of the market has been on full display this week. Large swings both high and low have been in vogue in response to any debt developments stemming from the Eurozone. When it comes to currency price movements, there has been very little in the way of half measures. This is evidenced by the Euro which last night dropped 1.8 cents then bounced 1.5 cents on the latest murmurs concerning Greece. A case could be made that every reaction is an over-reaction when it comes to Eurozone news at the moment.
The Australian dollar has been caught up in the global tug of war between risk-on and risk-off this week. Within 24 hours it had slumped from riding high towards 1.0650 to having support tested at 1.0450. The hot and cold trading patterns this week looks set to continue until such time as either US data or European developments start to reduce and not increase trading anxiety.
Another test of support at 1.0450 for the Aussie dollar could be on the radar. Asian markets this week have shown a tendency to run out of steam in late trade and this could see the Aussie dip below 1.05. Later, in the US session tonight GDP and Durable Goods figures could send risk assets lower if they undershoot forecasts.