Forex Morning Comments: +8% per la moneta unica nei primi sei mesi
Il primo semestre dell’anno si chiude con un apprezzamento dell’Euro dell’8%. Un risultato davvero significativo, se si pensa che nello stesso periodo di tempo si sono riaccesi i focolai relativi ai problemi fiscali della Grecia e dei Paesi periferici e che la dice lunga soprattutto sulla debolezza del Dollaro. Nelle ultime ventiquattro ore la moneta unica ha superato la resistenza posta a $1,4460 con prossimo target s 1,46: sia gli acquisti in Euro del governo cinese che le aspettative circa un rialzo dei tassi da parte della Bce (che peraltro aumentando i costi di finanziamento del debito italiano e spagnolo potrebbero mettere nel mirino i titoli di questi due Paesi) già la prossima settimana (i dati sull’inflazione dell’Eurozona in uscita oggi sono previsti in crescita) sono tutti fattori che contribuiscono a mantenere i flussi in entrata sull’Euro, non ultimo il fatto che ieri con l’approvazione del pacchetto di austerity da parte del Parlamento greco si è superato uno degli ostacoli principali al ritorno degli investimenti sui mercati. Come si è già visto sulla Borsa australiana questa notte, la diminuzione della volatilità e il rientro dei capitali sugli asset considerati più rischiosi, oltre all’apprezzamento delle materie prime, sono tutti segnali che suggeriscono una virata verso un aumento della propensione al rischio con perdite sul mercato obbligazionario e guadagni su azioni, commodity e Dollaro Australiano. Il rialzo dei rendimenti sui titoli americani continua a sostenere il DollaroYen, anche se il cambio fatica ad oltrepassare 81.30. Prosegue invece la debolezza della Sterlina che paga un’ulteriore proroga della stretta monetaria toccando i minimi di un anno nei confronti di una serie di monete. Si prevede un’apertura positiva per le maggiori borse europee.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 30th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
As we close the first half of 2011 the single currency is up over 8% from where we started in January, which given recent events in Greece, as well as the rest of Europe and the concerns about sovereign debt, is quite a feat, and probably says more about the problems of the US dollar than anything else. Reports out of Asia that China’s SAFE is quietly going about acquiring euro’s in exchange for US dollars has also underpinned the single currency. Yesterday’s passing of the first vote of the Greek austerity bill has seen market fears about a Greek default diminish slightly, however there is the small matter of today’s vote on the implementation and specific parts of the austerity bill. With that in mind there is a chance that certain parts of it could be picked apart, which could further unsettle markets.
In any case one of the reasons for the single currencies resilience can be attributed to the ECB’s hawkish stance regarding interest rates, which are predicted to be raised once again next week, further increasing the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy who could be next in the sights of the bond markets.
This stance by the ECB will be particularly relevant given this morning’s Eurozone CPI numbers for June, which is expected to come in higher at 2.8%, up from last months 2.7%, reinforcing the “strong vigilance” stance adopted by the ECB.
German unemployment data for June is also to be released with expectations of a drop of 17k with the unemployment rate staying at 7%.
The pound has once again felt the weight of market expectations of a delayed rate hike, hitting one year lows on its trade weighted index yesterday. With concerns about consumer spending and confidence weighing on sentiment today’s Nationwide Gfk confidence numbers for June haven’t really helped in trying to alleviate the downside pressure, coming in at -25.
US markets will be hoping for some improvement in the latest weekly jobless claims after a number of weeks of misses to the upside. Expectations are for a fall from last weeks 429k to 420k, and given that today will be the last day of QE2, markets will be hoping for some significant improvements, not only in the labour market but elsewhere as well.
US Chicago Purchasing Managers for June is expected to fall back from May’s 56.6 to 54.0. If the economic data continues to disappoint, markets will soon begin to speculate on the need for further QE.
EURUSD – the momentum higher seems to be gaining strength with the single currency closing above the 55 day MA at 1.4410 overnight, also breaking above the broader resistance level at 1.4460, the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move. This break beyond 1.4460 now brings the trend line resistance from the 1.4940 highs into play at 1.4540. The 55 day MA should now act as support around 1.4400 while the single currency needs to break back below 1.4320/30 to retest the key trend line support at 1.4115/25 from the May lows at 1.3970.
GBPUSD – after four days below the 200 day MA the cable managed to close above it last night in New York as it closed around 1.6060. This key close has brought an element of stability to the recent sterling declines. This move higher has the potential to extend towards the 1.6120/30 area initially, while any dips should now find some support around the 1.5980 area. A break of 1.6120/30 could well see further gains towards 1.6200. Despite falling 30 points short of 1.5880 it would appear that the pound continues to have solid support in and around the low 1.5900 area.
EURGBP – yesterday’s extension above the 0.9000 area to 0.9012 has brought the possibility of a test towards the May highs around 0.9045. However the sharp move back suggests that any further gains could well be limited given the daily long legged doji candle posted yesterday. A sustained break back below the 0.8940 area shifts the focus back towards trend line support at 0.8900, from the June lows at 0.8725. Further down the strong support at 0.8840/50 remains the key barrier preventing a move towards the 0.8780 area.
USDJPY – yesterday’s push higher in 10 year US bond yields saw a test of the 200 day MA at 3.12% which in turn kept the dollar yen underpinned. So far there hasn’t been enough momentum to take dollar beyond the 55 day MA at 81.30 which is needed to signal the next leg higher towards the May highs at 82.00. As suspected the dollar has again slipped back and could well retest the 80 level once again.
For now the 80.00 level remains fairly solid support while a slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Head of Sales Trading Matt Lewis)
Strong gains in global markets overnight on the back of approval for Greek austerity measures and better than expected home data in the US have given our local market a healthy boost upwards for the second session in a row, pointing to a change in sentiment for risk appetite.
The “risk trade” is clearly back on with force today and that is seen in the broad based gains across all major sectors. Over the past few sessions we have seen the yields on US 10 year bonds put on 30 points which is suggesting traders are shifting out of bonds which are traditionally seen as safer havens and switching into riskier assets such as equities. The fact that we have also seen the Aussie dollar smash through its recent range also points to a boost in investor confidence.
Strong gains in the energy and materials sector today are also a good barometer of the state of play, helping drive the overall market higher after decent gains in copper and crude oil overnight. With the headwinds from Greece all but over, and some sectors of the market looking cheap from a valuation perspective, we may expect to see a bit of a shift up in the market coming into the new financial year. If the market can close above the 4570 levels today then from a technical perspective it should bode well in breaking the recent downtrend.
Markets will continue to factor in some risk premium for a disorderly and dangerous collapse of negotiations to provide immediate funding to the Greek government but last night’s vote cleared one major hurdle.
Reports of concrete and detailed discussions with German banks on their contribution to the funding effort via a voluntary extension of bond maturities are also being view positively. This will allow potential buyers to be a bit more confident about positioning themselves for an increase in Australian share market valuations.