Forex Morning Comments: il downgrade del Portogallo mette a dura prova la capacità di resistenza dell’Euro
La capacità di resistenza dell’Euro alle notizie negative provenienti dai giudizi delle agenzie di rating ha incassato ieri un duro colpo a seguito della decisione di Moody’s di downgradare il rating del Portogallo di quattro classi, portandolo direttamente a Ba2 e di fatto rendendo evidente l’esigenza di un secondo salvataggio. La moneta unica ha ritracciato fino a $1,4412 verso 1,4320, spinta nella discesa dalle nuove preoccupazioni riguardanti l’Italia che ha registrato una contrazione nell’indice dei servizi nel bel mezzo di una crescente incertezza politica. Oggi il summit a Parigi delle principali banche internazionali dovrà affrontare anche la “sorpresa portoghese” e accettare una situazione di rischio default che non coinvolge solo la Grecia ma che potrebbe rinfocolare i timori di contagio. Sul mercato valutario si è registrato un picco di volatilità sul cambio EuroFrancoSvizzero, sceso di una figura a seguito del downgrade di Moody’s che ha nuovamente visto diminuire la propensione al rischio, anche se non si è avuta la reazione di panico del mese di giugno. Il Dollaro Australiano è rimasto sotto pressione a seguito dei toni della RBA, stretto tra un allontanamento senza ulteriori indicazioni di un rialzo dei tassi e l’apprezzamento delle materie prime come oro e petrolio. Il cambio con il Dollaro Usa sembra avviato oggi verso 1,07 con i mercati che si preparano a scontare una settimana ricca di eventi.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 6th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Even before yesterday some of the upward momentum that had been underpinning the single currency in recent days had started to ebb away. Yesterday’s disappointing economic data continues to raise fears about a Eurozone recovery with below par PMI’s, and slumping retail sales data.
Renewed concerns about Italy hadn’t helped either, where services are showing signs of contraction, in the face of some budget tightening and political uncertainty.
So the single currency slipped further back when Moody’s decided to announce that it was downgrading Portugal’s rating by four notches to junk status “Ba2” and putting it on negative watch, stating that in its opinion, that the country would need a second bailout.
Today’s meeting of international banks in Paris will now take on an even greater importance in the light of yesterday’s move, given that concerns about restructuring had until now only been confined to Greece. Moody’s move yesterday certainly doesn’t make life any easier for the banks, or the politicians. In economic data out later German factory orders for May are expected to fall by 0.5% from April’s 2.8% rise, reducing the annualised rate to 9.5%. The pound has managed a small rebound in the last 24 hours after services PMI surprised to the upside, coming in at 53.9 against expectations of 53.5, and in stark contrast to the European numbers which missed on the downside.
Today’s BRC shop prices index for June came in at 2.9% up from May’s 2.3% rise, highlighting the continued upward pressure on prices, currently constraining consumer demand, while Halifax house prices for June are expected to come in flat. In the US non-ISM manufacturing data for June is expected to continue the theme of weaker economic data slipping back to 53.7 from May’s 54.6.
EURUSD – the euro continues to lose momentum unable to rally break back through the 1.4520 area, and break the broader resistance area between 1.4550 and 1.4570, which is 61.8% of the 1.4940/1.3970 down move could well see a return to the 1.4700 area, and the highs this year at 1.4940.
The move below 1.4450 has seen the single currency slip back towards the 55 day MA at 1.4412; however it needs to break below it to open up the next move. A daily close below the 55 day MA at 1.4412 could well see the single currency break test back towards the 1.4320/30 area and retest the key trend line support at 1.4150/60 from the May lows at 1.3970.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to find upward momentum beyond the 1.6120/30 area difficult to sustain, while support below 1.6000 continues to hold, and therefore it looks as if the recent range could well continue. A break of 1.6120/30 could well see further gains towards 1.6200; while below the 1.5980 area retargets the lows of earlier this week around 1.5910 as well as the 1.5880 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move.
EURGBP – yesterday’s break below the 0.9000 area could well be a critical factor in the start of a deeper correction lower. In the short term it seems we could well have seen the highs. The next support can be found around the 0.8970/80 area which was the early June highs. A pull back beyond 0.9010 would re-target 0.9050. It would need a sustained break back below the 0.8940 area to shift the focus back towards 0.8850.
USDJPY – it’s becoming a challenge to try and say the same thing but in a slightly different way every day but the same levels continue to compress the price action here. As far as the recent range is concerned it’s as you were with the 55 day MA at 81.10 and last week’s highs at 81.30 continuing to cap. A break above 81.30 is needed to signal the next leg higher towards the May highs at 82.00.
For now the 80.00 level remains fairly solid support while a slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
Risk Assets Better Able To Absorb Bad News, AUD Hovers Near 1.07
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
Markets have showed a greater propensity to absorb negative debt headlines this week, with recent issues out of China and Portugal enough to cause a stir but not enough to create major market distress. We have seen pockets of higher volatility, such as in the EURCHF pair which fell a big figure after the Moody’s downgrade news, and risk assets eased on news concerning Chinese local Government debt, but by and large the panic button was not hit like it would have been in June when the market was hyper sensitive to negativity.
The Australian dollar has come under some pressure in the wake of the RBA’s slightly less ‘rosy’ statement, however the subsequent retreat of the currency has been moderate. Whilst the time horizon on a move to 5% interest rates has been effectively pushed out, a solid performance from key commodity prices like gold and oil in the past 48 hours has softened the blow. The 1.0650 to 1.0750 range looks to be in play as we head into the overnight session.
The AUDUSD rate has headed back in the direction of 1.07 today in light trade, as the market shapes up for what is likely to be an eventful end to the week. Upcoming we have Non-Manufacturing ISM data in the US tonight, Australian employment figures tomorrow and then the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Then of course we have US Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday which will have a major say on how risk-assets fare in the short term.