M. Hewson: i rendimenti dei decennali spagnoli e italiani si avvicinano al 7%
La moneta unica e il Dollaro Usa continuano ad essere strattonate in entrambe le direzioni a causa dei problemi debitori sottostanti dei rispettivi Paesi di riferimento. A pesare sui corsi dell’Euro, stretto tra $1,3915 e 1,4290, sono i rendimenti in crescita dei titoli di Stato decennali spagnoli e italiani che si stanno avvicinando pericolosamente al livello del 7%, lo stesso che ha portato Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo a richiedere il salvataggio finanziario internazionale. In Giappone, finchè il cambio DollaroYen rimarrà ancora intrappolato sotto il livello di 79,50, prevarrà la direzione ribassista: attenzione a 78,50, supporto sotto il quale si andrebbe a puntare verso 76,50.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 19th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
The single currency and the US dollar continue to be pulled in both directions with respect to each currency’s respective debt problems.
Today’s vote in the Republican controlled house on their proposed $2.4trn budget bill will be vetoed by President Obama even if it is passed, according to a statement issued by the White House yesterday. This announcement followed a statement by Fitch ratings that it will place the AAA rating on negative watch if the debt ceiling is not raised prior to August 2nd, following in the footsteps of its peers Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s.
Rising Spanish and Italian 10 year bond yields continue to pressure the single currency both hitting new post euro highs at 6.368% and 6.027% respectively, raising the temperature in the banking sector and getting a little too close to the 7% level that precipitated bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
With this in mind later this morning Spain will auction €4.5bn in 12 and 18-month bills, and it is likely that the rates on these will be considerably higher than the last auctions In data out later this morning the latest July ZEW economic sentiment survey for Germany and the Euro zone are due out, and the recent turmoil in debt markets could well affect these sentiment indicators. Expectations are for German sentiment to decline from -9 to -12.5, while euro zone is expected to decline from -5.9 to -7.4. In the US with earnings season well under way US housing starts for June is expected to rise 2.7%.
In Australia the minutes of the recent RBA meeting showed that the committee were continuing to adopt a wait and see policy with respect to interest rates and were happy to wait until the next quarterly reading of inflation at the end of July. The minutes also dropped the reference in respect of the need for tighter policy at some stage.
The latest Bank of Canada rate decision is also due and rates are expected to remain unchanged at 1%, given the recent strength of the Canadian dollar.
EURUSD – the single currency remains sandwiched between the 100 day MA at 1.4290 and the 200 day MA support at 1.3915. Yesterday’s test of the 1.4020 level, and 200 week MA has prompted a rebound back above 1.4100, as it tries to fill the gap from Friday’s close at 1.4156. Only a break above the 100 day average would then target the 55 day MA at 1.4345, but this is already starting to turn over. To open another test of the 200 day average on the downside at 1.3915 we need to break below support around 1.4000. The primary trend line support at 1.3740 from the June 2010 lows at 1.1880 is the major uptrend line for the current rise in the single currency.
GBPUSD – yesterdays break below the 1.6080 support level saw the pound break down towards the 1.6000 level, however the failure to break below it has seen the pound rally back. The 1.6080 area should now act as resistance for any rally back higher, though as is often the case with the cable we could well see a move back towards 1.6180 of we get back above 1.6080. The expectation remains for the next move to be towards 1.5980 and a retest of the 1.5880 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Trend line resistance remains at 1.6245 trend line resistance from the April highs, at 1.6190. The 1.6250/60 area is also a 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows, so is doubly important.
EURGBP – yesterday we saw the single currency break below trend line support at 0.8740 from the February lows at 0.8410 and make a low of 0.8705 before rebounding strongly to close on the highs of the day, just below 0.8790. The strength of this rebound suggests we could well have seen the lows in the short term, but we won’t know for sure until a break above the resistance at 0.8835/50 where we have the 55 day MA. Nevertheless the bias still remains bearish given the weekly reversal signal two weeks ago and we still look for a move towards the 200 day MA at 0.8665. Above the highs at 0.8850 could well target a move towards the 0.8940 area.
USDJPY – a quiet day yesterday given it was a Japanese holiday. The main resistance remains at the May lows of 79.50/60 which needs to be overcome for a move towards the 80.00 level. Nevertheless while below the May lows at 79.50 the emphasis remains firmly to the downside. The next support lies around last weeks lows around 78.50, while a break below could well target the all-time lows at 76.50.