Forex Morning Comment: il dollaro sotto pressione, possibile un nuovo intervento della BoJ
Nonostante le lancette dell’orologio avanzino inesorabili verso la scadenza del 2 agosto, l’attenzione degli investitori questa mattina sarà catalizzata dai numeri preliminari sulla crescita del secondo trimestre del Pil della Gran Bretagna: alcuni economisti scontano già il fatto che il dato in uscita possa mostrare un’economia in contrazione e, conseguentemente, agire come detrattore per i piani di tagli alla spesa delineati dal ministro delle Finanze UK e in ultima analisi sui rendimenti dei titoli di Stato.
Sul fronte valutario l’Euro sembra ormai orientato verso nuovi rialzi (prossima tappa $1,4576) mentre il DollaroUsa sprofonda nei meandri delle liti tra le parti che non riescono a trovare un accordo per l’innalzamento del debito pubblico: sta iniziando a prendere forma nel mercato l’idea che il compromesso sarà il combinato disposto tra aumento di tasse e tagli alla spesa, un approccio che potrebbe essere foriero di ulteriori problemi alla crescita se si prende in considerazione il sostanziale fallimento nello scopo del QE2. Qualora ci avvicinassimo alla deflazione, sarebbe facile anche pronosticare un pronto intervento di un terzo round di Quantitative Easing.
Nell’impossibilità di trovare un compromesso immediato, la soluzione meglio accettata dal mercato potrebbe essere quello di un passo intermedio atto a prendere tempo. In questa situazione Oro e Franco Svizzero si dirigono verso nuovi massimi storici perchè gli investitori si proteggono contro la possibilità di downgrading e default sui titoli del debito Usa. Yen sempre pericolosamente vicino alla soglia di intervento della BoJ.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 26th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Despite the political wrangling taking place in the US at the moment it is the UK that will take centre stage this morning with the release of preliminary Q2 GDP numbers. Some economists fear that the figures could show that the economy has slipped back into contraction territory. Expectations are for a rise of 0.2%, down from Q1’s 0.5% rise, due to concerns that the UK consumer is starting to struggle against the competing demands of paying the bills, rising prices, and the discretionary spending which is required to boost the UK economy.
The fact is given the parlous state of UK household finances and the fact that the UK economy is 70% consumer driven, low GDP growth is likely to be the new normal for some time to come, until the household debt of the consumer is pared down to more manageable levels.
A poor number will also increase the political pressure on the UK Chancellor to loosen his current spending plans, with all the inherent risks that would bring in the bond markets to the current low borrowing costs.
With the current focus the market has on debt the stakes could not be higher given the calls from some parts of the political debate for a plan B, or a relaxation of the fiscal reins, in order to help boost growth.
In the US the political wrangling over the raising of the debt ceiling has continued in the last 24 hours with both parties putting forward competing plans to raise the debt ceiling, as well as continuing the political blame game.
The US dollar plunged in Asia after President Obama announced that the parties were as far away as ever on a deal as markets woke up to the fact that the US could well be sleepwalking its way into a default. Republican Boehner’s two step proposes a short term rise in the ceiling matched by spending cuts over a ten year period, tied to a plan to cut spending further down the line. This plan would involve another debate early next year for a further rise to the debt ceiling.
On the other side of the political divide Senate leader Democrat Harry Reid proposes a much longer term fiscal plan to cut $2.7 trillion in spending over the next 10 years in order to give President Obama the additional borrowing authority he seeks, enough to get through the 2012 elections.
Today’s US consumer confidence figures for July will be a key barometer of how much damage has been done by the recent uncertainty caused by this political wrangling, with expectations of a fall back to 56, from the previous 58.5. In amongst all this uncertainty the Swiss franc and gold have continued to hit record highs against the US dollar as investor’s hedge against the probability of a credit rating downgrade in the coming months as well as a possible default.
EURUSD – the risk for further gains in the single currency towards the July high at 1.4576 remain while above the 55 day and 100 day MA around the 1.4300/10 area. The move in Asia beyond trend line resistance at 1.4450/60, brings the 1.4500 level into play. The euro should find support around the 55 day and 100 day MA both at 1.4305/10. Only a move back and close below 1.4300 would reopen a test of the downside, back towards 1.4150.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to hold above the 1.6260 area which was the 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows. Momentum should continue to remain positive while above here for a move towards 1.6380, which is the 61.8% retracement of the same move. A move above 1.6380 targets 1.6520. If the pound slips below 1.6250/60 then we could well get a move back towards 1.6180/1.6200 which acted as strong resistance for most of last week. Only move below 1.6180 retargets the 1.6080 pivot.
EURGBP – the break in Asia above the highs at 0.8850 now looks set to target a move towards the 0.8895 initially level initially, 50% retracement level, and then the 0.8940 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from 0.9085 to the 0.8705 lows this week. Intraday trend line support from the 0.8705 lows last week can be found around 0.8820 level.
USDJPY – while below the main resistance at the May lows of 79.50/60 the bias remains for further declines. Yet another new low at 77.92 keeps the bias firmly to the downside after breaking below the lows earlier this month at 78.50. The all time lows below 76.50 remain a key target, however with the threat of intervention hanging over the market; it could well be susceptible to sharp short squeezes.
Financials and Miners Help Index Up Almost 1%
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
The Australian market has pushed higher today despite negative offshore leads, as traders bought oversold stocks following yesterday’s panic selling. Some traders also bought up the market believing a compromise on the US debt stalemate is near a resolution. Financial and mining stocks helped the index gain almost 1% today.
The US debt stand-off continued today with no side willing to give ground. Traders were taking long positions directly before Obama’s speech believing a resolution had been reached. Hope quickly turned to despair after the president’s speech concluded as it was clear both political parties were no closer to a much needed agreement.
In his midday speech, President Obama insinuated that the Republican’s stance was short sighted and more for political gain than in the best interests of America. The Republicans played the same blame game, saying they had a plan to cut spending and balance the budget but accused the government for the mess they were in.
Gold has been the stand out performer as the circus-like debt stalemate plays out through the media. The market is coming to the realisation that as a compromise approaches the result will be a mix between increased taxes and decreased spending. This approach could spell growth problems for the US whose previous quantitative easing programs failed to foster strong growth.
If a compromise is reached we may see deflation rear its ugly head and could also spell a 3rd quantitative easing program to be released.
The market is now looking for some form of leadership in the debt ceiling debate to provide clarity to these fragile markets; a ‘non-conclusive but time buying’ decision may be the best solution for now if the two parties were unable to compromise. Such a solution would give the parties more time to negotiate and may alleviate current market concerns but obviously not solve the problem. A nonconclusive strategy may enable the US to pay its short term debt but will probably not hold the ratings agencies from knocking US debt from its AAA pedestal.
In Australia investors were eager to hear RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ speech entitled ‘The Cautious Consumer’. His speech gave clues as to the direction of future interest rates and talked about a pick up in the retail environment. The Governor spoke about consumption growing more in line with income, once households perceive their debt levels more tenable.