Forex Morning Comments: il Q3 è da considerarsi improbabile, in arrivo nuove vendite
I timori relativi alla crescita economica dei Paesi dell’Eurozona sono di nuovo in agenda oggi a seguito dei dati deludenti registrati la scorsa settimana nel Pil tedesco: dovessero essere confermati dai dati in uscita sull’industria manifatturiera e dei servizi, il mercato inizierebbe a interrogarsi circa la capacità della Germania di riuscire a garantire il debito dei Paesi periferici, oltre al fatto che confermerebbe le paure di una doppia recessione nel Vecchio Continente.
Con l’Oro che continua a segnare nuovi massimi, il Franco Svizzero potrebbe subire una battuta d’arresto in vista di un ulteriore intervento della banca centrale qualora i dati relativi alle esportazioni svizzere per il mese di luglio dovessero segnare il passo. Dal canto suo, l’Euro continua a rimanere intrappolato sopra $1,45 finchè non oltrepasserà 1,4575.
Sul cambio DollaroYen prevale il nervosismo di un intervento ormai prossimo della Boj con una leggera risalita del biglietto verde sopra quota 76. Gli occhi degli investitori oggi rimarranno puntati ancora in direzione di Jackson Hole dove venerdì è atteso il discorso di Bernanke (i nuovi record dell’Oro e i rendimenti saliti sopra il 2% sembrano segnalare proprio attese di preparazione ad un nuovo QE): qui lo scorso anno il presidente della Fed annunciò il QE2 dando un immediato sollievo ai mercati azionari e la speranza è che quest’anno il copione si possa ripetere; tuttavia, se consideriamo gli scarsi effetti che tale politica monetaria ha avuto nel contributo alla creazione di nuova occupazione e crescita, riteniamo che sia molto improbabile che la Fed possa incorrere nella stessa medicina e quando Bernanke deluderà il mercato venerdi nel non annunciare un nuovo round di Quantitative Easing, aspettiamoci che le vendite possano tornare a ritestare gli ultimi minimi e andare anche oltre.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 23th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Concerns about core countries European growth go back on the agenda today, after last weeks disappointing German and Euro zone GDP numbers, with the latest manufacturing and services French, German and Eurozone flash PMI data for August.
Given that Q2 growth in the Euro zone virtually stalled in the last quarter there remains a concern that a continued slowdown will impact the markets perceptions of the ability of Europe’s largest economy, in Germany, to act as a potential bail out of last resort for Europe, even if it wanted to. Disappointing numbers will also increase fears of a double dip recession in Europe, as the fall out from the sovereign debt crisis continues to impact on demand and on sentiment.
As it is Greece has already stated that it expects its economy to shrink even further from its original estimates for 2011, by as much as 5%, as the vicious circle of austerity pushes it closer to the edge of default.
Expectations are for all PMI measures to remain in expansion mode with one exception, but they are all still expected to be down on the previous month. The exception is expected to be euro zone manufacturing PMI, which is expected to slip back to 49.5, from 50.4 in July. German manufacturing PMI also looks vulnerable with expectations of a slip back to 50.6, from 52 in July.
The more important indicator remains the German ZEW survey with the economic sentiment indicator expected to slip further to -26 from July’s -15.1, which would make it three successive months in negative territory, the first time it would have done that since early 2009.
Concerns about new central bank intervention from the Swiss National Bank are likely to increase if Swiss exports for July show increased declines due to the strength of the franc.
In the US attention is expected to focus on this afternoon’s August Richmond Fed manufacturing index in the wake of last week’s awful Philadelphia numbers, with expectations of a further decline to -5 from the previous figure of -1. New home sales for July are expected to rise 1% reversing the 1% decline in June. Gold continues its relentless march higher hitting new all time highs against the US dollar, euro and the pound.
EURUSD – the single currency continues to find itself capped just above the 1.4500 area and last week’s highs. The major support lies around the 1.4030 area where the 200 week moving average sits. There is also major resistance remaining between July’s peaks between 1.4535 and 1.4575/80. To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back and close below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last four days. There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4195 level.
GBPUSD – despite a new 3 month high at 1.6620 last week the pound slid back but has so far managed to hold above the 1.6400 level. The hanging man we saw on Thursday turned out to be a bit of a noose for cable bears; however the air does appear a little thin above 1.6600. These highs continue to be a key level, with the bigger resistance at 1.6745, the April highs. Only a break below 1.6420 would target a deeper correction towards 1.6350, or even the 1.6250/60 area which has acted as solid support for the best part of a fortnight now.
Back below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6085/95, and a sustained break below could well target further losses.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find support above the 200 day MA around the 0.8660/70 area and this provoked a sharp rebound on Friday. This rebound could extend towards the 0.8800 area and the 55 day MA at 0.8835. It needs a daily close above this level to target higher levels, and a move towards 0.8900. A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – Friday’s fall below the 76.20/30 area, making a new all time low at 75.95 seemed to clear out a load of stops below this key support. The failure to follow through with any conviction saw the market close back above the 76.00 level, as nervousness about possible intervention remains the prevailing sentiment. The risk remains for further losses, but the market needs to take out the base that appears to be building up around the major lows around the 76.25/30 area. Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50. It really needs to rally beyond the 77.30 area to kick on towards the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.
Hard Landing Not Likely Anytime Soon
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
Our market is pushing higher today ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting on rising hopes that the current Chinese policy setting is proving just right. Today’s HSBC flash china manufacturing data is stating a hard landing is simply not going to happen anytime soon. The data is, however, soft enough to show monetary policy is working. This is an encouraging point of difference in our market that seems to be plagued by problems elsewhere.
It seems the rest of the world’s hopes are pinned on this Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting. The market is pricing in more quantitative easing but it seems analysts remain divided if such a measure will be used again given its previous effectiveness.
Last year the advance higher in our markets came after Ben Bernanke’s decision to announce QE2. At that point in time deflation was starting to become a popular topic of conversation. The falls in company earnings, the rise in unemployment and the fallout of house prices caused by the GFC had many believing we were heading to a Japanese style period of deflation.
Despite the presence of inflation the market is pricing in a new round of quantitative easing. The 10 year bond rate just above 2% and the gold price gaining momentum is evidence that the world in preparing for the inflationary effects of a quantitative easing program.
With the market currently lacking confidence, and volatility getting to uncomfortable levels many retail investors are leaving the equity markets in droves.
I believe the damage done to investor’s psyche over the GFC is unlikely to be forgotten quickly. The common theme of indebted nation’s governments desperately trying to reduce debts by clawing back fiscal spending is doing nothing to spur growth and consumer confidence.
The US is a prime example of an economy entering a debt death spiral where repressive debt repayments cause the government to reduce fiscal spending which further slows the economy.
I believe there is a very real chance that Bernanke will disappoint the market this Friday by not announcing the start of quantitative easing 3. If I am right and the market doesn’t receive its medicine, I believe we will revisit the recent lows and probably break much lower.