Forex Morning Comments: l’Euro continua a mostrare una grande capacità di resistenza
Il Dollaro Usa rimane sotto pressione sulle attese dell’annuncio di un nuovo QE da parte di Bernanke dopodomani, anche se, considerata la situazione (dissenso interno al Fomc, inflazione) molto probabilmente i mercati stanno andando incontro ad una grande delusione.
Dall’altra parte dell’Oceano, invece, l’Euro continua a mostrare una grande capacità di resistenza (sopra $1,45) proprio laddove i politici europei sembrano mettercela tutta per screditare agli occhi degli investitori la loro capacità di risolvere i problemi dell’Eurozona. Non bastassero i problemi legati alle misure di austerity imposte dai governi e i pessimi dati macro visti in questi giorni, a seguito delle richieste bilaterali tra la Finlandia e la Grecia, si va formando un ampio disaccordo circa l’opportunità di chiedere garanzie collaterali alle nazioni beneficiare del fondo EFSF. La Germania, che pur non è d’accordo, si trova nella difficile posizione di dover comunque una spiegazione ai propri cittadini. In Giappone Moody’s ha tagliato il credit rating del Paese prospettando una debole ripresa economica e quasi contemporaneamente il Governo di Tokio ha annunciato misure di aumento della liquidità per 100 miliardi di dollari nel tentativo di fermare la corsa al rialzo dello Yen: solo oltre quota 77.30 si aprirà la possibilità di un ulteriore discesa nei confronti del Dollaro Usa.
In Australia il sentiment ancora confuso circa la direzionalità del mercato ha riportato l’Aussie a 1.05: le attese oggi sono per una lettura positiva sia dell’indice tedesco Ifo che degli ordini dei beni durevoli Usa, in caso contrario gli investitori si stanno già preparando ad un’inversione a U e potremmo rivedere una nuova ondata di ordini in vendita.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 24th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
The US dollar has remained under pressure over the last 24 hours on the somewhat optimistic belief that this weeks Jackson Hole speech by Ben Bernanke will somehow precipitate a new round of measures to stimulate the US economy. Yesterday’s disappointing US economic data has reinforced this perception; hence the strong rally in equity markets in the last 24 hours.
It remains highly probable that markets are building up for a major disappointment in this regard, given the different political climate currently in the US, as well as the higher inflation rate, and the small matter of dissent within the confines of the FOMC, on the efficacy of any new stimulus measures. In Europe politicians seem to be trying their hardest to undermine confidence in their ability to deal with the debt problems currently afflicting the euro zone.
There appears to be widespread disagreement amongst member nations about the use of collateral in exchange for bailout funds, after Finland announced it had secured an arrangement with Greece in exchange for its portion of the funds. This revelation has, in turn prompted other European nations to ask for similar arrangements, which if not forthcoming could jeopardise the new Greece bailout deal. Finland has already indicated that it may pull out of the Greek deal if it is forced to give up its deal.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected such demands but she has been undermined in this regard by her own labour minister who stated that bailout nations should provide their own gold reserves as collateral.
While this demand has been dismissed, these spats highlight the deep divisions not only between European nations, but within Germany itself as politicians strive to keep local populations happy, while at the same time trying to keep the euro together. In a separate development the biggest trade union in Italy announced a general strike for the 6th September to protest the recent austerity budget.
As if Europe’s problems and particularly Germany’s problems weren’t bad enough yesterday’s economic data also fell short of expectations with a shocking ZEW number for August at -37, as it declined for the third month in a row, for the first time since 2009.
With that in mind today’s German IFO number will be particularly important with IFO expectations set to decline further for August to 102.80, from 105 in July. Business confidence is also expected to decline from 112.9 to 111.
Despite all of these events the single currency perplexingly continues to hold up fairly well, however one wonders how much longer it can continue to absorb all this division and bad news.
The yen barely moved this morning despite Moody’s cutting Japan’s credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3 with a stable outlook, citing weak growth prospects. At the same time Japanese finance minister Noda announced a further package of measures to curb the recent strength in the yen including a $100bn emergency credit facility to help support Japanese companies.
Also announced was new monitoring which requires all financial institutions to report on all FX positions held by traders throughout September. In the US durable goods orders for July are expected to rise 2.3% from June’s 1.9% decline.
EURUSD – the single currency continues to find itself capped just above the 1.4500 area and last week’s highs. The major support lies around the 1.4030 area where the 200 week moving average sits. There is also major resistance remaining between July’s peaks between 1.4535 and 1.4575/80. To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back and close below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last four days. There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4200 level.
GBPUSD – despite a new 3 month high at 1.6620 last week the pound slid back but has so far managed to hold above the 1.6400 level. The hanging man we saw on Thursday turned out to be a bit of a noose for cable bears; however the air does appear a little thin above 1.6600. These highs continue to be a key level, with the bigger resistance at 1.6745, the April highs. Only a break below 1.6420 would target a deeper correction towards 1.6350, or even the 1.6250/60 area which has acted as solid support for the best part of a fortnight now.
Back below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6085/95, and a sustained break below could well target further losses.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find support above the 200 day MA around the 0.8660/70 area and this provoked a sharp rebound on Friday. This rebound could extend towards the 0.8800 area and the 55 day MA at 0.8835. It needs a daily close above this level to target higher levels, and a move towards 0.8900. A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – Friday’s fall below the 76.20/30 area, making a new all time low at 75.95 seemed to clear out a load of stops below this key support. The failure to follow through with any conviction saw the market close back above the 76.00 level, as nervousness about possible intervention remains the prevailing sentiment. The risk remains for further losses, but the market needs to take out the base that appears to be building up around the major lows around the 76.25/30 area. Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50. It really needs to rally beyond the 77.30 area to kick on towards the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.
AUD Drifts Below 1.05 As Equities Give Up Gains
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
Market fears have been allayed somewhat in the last few trading sessions, with some data showing that conditions may not be quite as bad as the recent monumental selloff would otherwise indicate. Chinese and German PMI data showed that those two economies are still ticking along, which calmed the market and opened the door for the Wall Street rally on Tuesday.
However, Asian equities hit a wall mid-session today which caused the AUD to slip back below 1.05. The momentum from overnight had faded today which will keep the AUD in a 1.0450-1.0520 range until the European session. Tonight we have German IFO Business Climate data out as well as US Core Durable Goods Orders. If we get a shocker in either of those we could see a sharp Uturn back into risk-off trading.
Hope has quickly turned to expectation that the US Fed will apply a Monetary Policy ‘defibrillator’ to kick-start the US economy, and that the grand announcement will come this Friday at Jackson Hole. Perhaps the market thinks that if you believe in something enough that it will eventually happen, as it is no done deal that Bernanke will perform a magic trick at the summit. Until we see what actually materialises it is difficult to look much further than one day ahead in the market at this point.