Forex Morning Comments: le vendite sull’oro incorporano le previsioni sulle prossime mosse della Fed
Nonostante il rally in corso questa settimana sui mercati azionari, rimane un certo nervosismo riguardante quello che ancora non si conosce a proposito del discorso di Bernanke a Jackson Hole. Tuttavia, il fatto che le Borse proseguano il loro rally a prescindere, dimostra che gli investitori non siano oltremodo preoccupati circa l’assenza di iniziative. In Europa, l’Euro continua a seguire immutato il suo tracciato (nessuna novità di rilievo finchè non si oltrepassa $1,4575), mentre non accennano a placarsi le dispute circa la legittimità della richiesta di garanzie collaterali ai Paesi che hanno accesso all’Efsf e soprattutto i segnali allarmanti nei confronti del sistema bancario del Vecchio Continente con un conseguente restringimento del credito. Incredibilmente rapida la discesa dell’ Oro che sta ritracciando dallo scorso martedì svalutandosi di 150 dollari in due giorni.
Le vendite sul metallo giallo potrebbero incorporare nuove previsioni sulle prossime mosse di Bernanke e cioè che non si appresti ad annunciare nuove misure ma semplicemente ribadisca la predisposizione della Fed a fare tutto ciò che è nelle sue capacità qualora richiesto: infatti, uno dei motivi che hanno supportato la corsa dell’oro negli ultimi mesi è stata proprio la previsione di inflazione al rialzo desunta dal mantenimento di una politica monetaria ultra-espansiva. Un lieve rimbalzo nei rendimenti dei titoli Usa mantiene il cambio DollaroYen intorno a 76 anche se permane la tendenza ribassista.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 25th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Despite this weeks rally in equity markets, nervousness remains about what lies in store this Friday at Jackson Hole.
In Europe arguments about collateral, bailouts and the legitimacy thereof continue to be played out in the full glare of the markets, yet despite this, financial markets remain remarkably sanguine about it, with the euro continuing to hold up well despite continued deteriorating German economic data.
Warning signals in the banking sector in Europe continue to flash red with default insurance at its highest levels since 2008, for some banks and continued tightness in the credit markets.
Yesterday’s German IFO data for August fell short of expectations on all measures as concerns about a sovereign debt spill over, continue to dominate sentiment. The expectations index slumped to its lowest level for 2 years to 100.1, while German industrial orders also fell 0.7%.
Today’s Gfk consumer confidence data should give clues as to how all this has affected household sentiment with expectations of a fall to 5.1 from 5.4. The German president also stepped into the fray regarding bailouts, questioning the legality of the current ECB bond buying program, following in the footsteps of the Bundesbank, while splits in the German cabinet about gold collateral continue to rumble on.
In France the French PM announced a new €11bn deficit cutting package as well as cutting the growth forecasts for the French economy from 2% to 1.75% for 2011. The new budget includes a range of tax rises on income and consumption as France tries to convince the markets it deserves to keep its triple “A” credit rating. Later this morning sterling watchers could find out why MPC member Martin Weale changed his vote at this month’s meeting of the MPC after reversing his call for a rise in rates, as he prepares to give a speech.
US weekly jobless aren’t likely to offer much comfort despite yesterday’s surprise rise in durable goods orders, as they continue to struggle to drop much below the psychologically important 400k mark. Expectations are for a slight decrease from 408k to 405k.
After Tuesday’s key reversal day, gold continued its plunge yesterday, dropping over $150 in two days. At close of business CME then announced a further margin hike of 27% begging the question, did someone know before yesterday’s announcement was made?
EURUSD – struggling to find anything new to say here – the single currency continues to find itself capped just above the 1.4500 area and last week’s highs. The major support lies around the 1.4030 area where the 200 week moving average sits. There is also major resistance remaining between July’s peaks between 1.4535 and 1.4575/80. To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back and close below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last four days. There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4220 level.
GBPUSD – yesterday we saw a break below the 1.6420 area that had held as support for most of this week. This break now opens up a move to trend line support at 1.6270 from the July lows at 1.5780. The 1.6250/60 area remains the broader solid support and only a concerted break below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6100/10, and a sustained break below could well target further losses. Pullbacks should find resistance around 1.6430 and 1.6520.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find support above the 200 day MA around the 0.8660/70 area and we have once again returned towards the top end of the recent range near the 55 day MA at 0.8835. It needs a daily close above this level to target higher levels, and a move towards 0.8900. A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – a slight rebound in US bond yields has kept a floor under the yen around the 76.00 lows seen last week. The risk remains for further losses, but the market needs to take out the base that appears to be building up around the major lows around the 76.00 area, and at the moment this doesn’t look likely. Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50. It really needs to rally beyond the 77.30 area to kick on towards the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.
Changing Attitude Towards Risk
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Chief Market Analyst Ric Spooner)
The Australian market was up by more than 1% today as world markets continued to wind back the risk premium built on to share valuations.
The changing attitude towards risk was reflected in a steep drop in the gold price and a solid rally in major banks and the Australian financial sector. The selloff in gold may reflect an emerging view that Fed Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke will not announce any fresh initiatives in his speech on Friday night but simply rely on an assurance that the Fed stands ready to act as appropriate.
The potential for future global inflation implied by aggressive monetary policy has been one of gold’s key drivers. The fact that the share market continues to rally may also indicate that equity markets will not be overly concerned about the absence of any fresh initiatives by the Fed tomorrow.
The market continues to be impacted by a chequered reporting season. Investors were content with BHP’s result. This morning’s 1.5% rally indicated the market was happy enough with the announcement of a long term increase in dividend payments and prepared to overlook the absence of another buy back. On the other hand Woolworths was sold heavily this morning as it continues to lose its rating as a growth stock for many investors. The market was disappointed in the company’s guidance of 2-6% growth of next financial year.