Forex Morning Comment: l’euro potrebbe tornare ai minimi dell’anno sotto 1,3$
La Grecia continuerà a rappresentare una fonte di ansia e preoccupazione anche nell’ultimo trimestre del 2011: per come stanno le cose, infatti, il Paese mancherà certamente gli obiettivi fiscali per l’anno in corso così come fissati il 21 luglio scorso, anche se, apparentemente dovrebbe comunque ricevere la seconda tranche di aiuti necessaria per evitare il default. Una situazione che diventa così sempre più ambigua anche per la trojka, che potrebbe veder venir meno la propria credibilità, spinta ad erogare comunque il finanziamento per non incorrere in un possibile contagio. Questa settimana Olanda, Malta e Slovacchia saranno chiamati a votare in merito all’implementazione del fondo Efsf e sussistono timori di possibili dietrofront soprattutto per la Slovacchia. In questo quadro non stupisce che l’Euro abbia innestato la retromarcia e , dopo essere sceso sotto $1,34 venerdì, possa consolidare la fare ribassista verso 1,30 e i minimi del 2011 a 1,2870. Settimana cruciale anche per la Sterlina con la resistenza a 1,57 contro il Dollaro Usa che continua ad agire come limite ribassista. Il rally del Dollaro sullo Yen fatica a superare 77.20, anche se permane la tendenza rialzista verso 77.80.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 3rd October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Greece continues to be the major source of market angst as we head in the final quarter of 2011, as it seeks to try and convince the troika of the IMF/ECB and EU that they can deliver the measures necessary to release the next tranche of bailout money. As things stand the country looks set to miss its fiscal targets for 2011 agreed at the 21st July summit. The government’s latest plan to lay off 30,000 public sector workers would still leave it with a deficit for this year of 8.5% of GDP, above the 7.6% target agreed in July.
As it is the troika’s latest report could well be delayed due to the obstruction caused by striking civil servants in Athens. In recent days there has been a widespread acceptance that Greece was likely to get its money; however recent events have shown that the troika could well give itself a significant credibility problem if it is shown that Greece gets its money, even though they have missed their targets, due to fears of the alternative.
Today’s meeting of EU finance ministers will continue to delay the inevitable and look at ways and means of avoiding a Greek default, as ministers look to persuade Slovakia to ratify the recent EFSF changes. There is concern that Slovakia could scupper the whole process due to a significant euro sceptic element in their parliament.
Fourteen members of the 17 have so ratified the changes with Malta and Holland due to vote this week and Slovakia remaining, with no concrete date yet set, even though 13th October has been touted as an option.
With concerns about the health of the European economy and Germany’s in particular today’s final September manufacturing PMI data are likely to reinforce concerns about stagnation in Europe’s largest economy with expectations to show that the sector stagnated at 50 last month. Eurozone manufacturing PMI is set to be confirmed at 48.4.
In the UK in what could well be an important week for the pound, manufacturing PMI for September is set to slip further into contraction territory from 49 in August to 48.5.
The weakness in this sector will likely increase calls for the bank to ease monetary policy further at this week’s rate setting meeting on Thursday, with a number of policy makers recent public statements starting to lean in that direction.
In the US the latest manufacturing ISM data for September is set to be released with expectations of a further fall from August’s 50.6 to 50.3, still just about in expansion territory but not much. There is some room for optimism here; however given Friday’s better than expected Chicago purchasing manager numbers which surprised significantly to the upside at 60.4.
EURUSD – Friday’s close below 1.3400 opens up the likelihood of further losses towards the 1.3000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 and the highs this year at 1.4940, at 1.3050. While we could well see a pullback towards 1.3500 and even 1.3700, the recent range highs, the odds are now shifting towards 1.3000 and even a move to this year’s lows at 1.2870.
GBPUSD – the resistance around the 1.5700 level is currently keeping the downside pressure on the pound intact, but it needs a break below the 1.5500 level to reopen a move towards the recent lows at 1.5330. A sustained break above 1.5710 could well see the 1.5780 level and even 1.5820, which would be 38.2% retracement of the decline from the August highs at 1.6618 to the September lows at 1.5330. The 1.5330 level remains the main obstacle to further declines in the longer term towards 1.5190 which remains the probable longer term outcome, given that the 50 day MA has now crossed below the 200 day MA, and in the process posted a “death cross” reversal signal.
EURGBP – Friday saw the 0.8720 level hold and the sell-off begin towards the recent range lows at 0.8535. Only a sustained move and close below 0.8575, which is 50% retracement of the up move from 0.8065 to the highs at 0.9085, opens up a test of 0.8455, which is the 61.8% level of the same move. Any sustained move beyond 0.8720 should run into trend line resistance from the 0.9085 highs now at 0.8785. The bias remains for further losses while below this resistance.
USDJPY – the rally Friday continues to struggle at the 77.20 level, however the bias remains for further gains on a break of this level towards 77.80. Any move below the key lows at 76.00/30 could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50.