Forex Morning Comment: l’accordo sul debito europeo non ha dissipato tutti i dubbi
Alle primi luci dell’alba i leader europei hanno finalmente concordato un accordo ma solo il tempo dirà se si tratti del “bazooka” atteso dagli investitori o qualcosa di diverso. Il dubbio principale, considerando che l’haircut dei bondholder privati dovrebbe attestarsi intorno al 50% del valore nominale dei titoli greci e che sono proprio le banche ad avere nei loro bilanci questi asset, è come si riesca ad arrivare ad una ricapitalizzazione degli istituti finanziari stimata in circa 100 miliardi di euro entro giugno 2012.
Come se non bastasse, i dati macro provenienti dall’Europa continuano a segnalare un’economia molto indebolita e, qualora i dati di oggi sull’inflazione tedesca dovessero mostrare un calo, aumenterebbero le pressioni sulla Bce per un taglio dei tassi in grado di stimolare la crescita ed alleviare il peso del debito sui governi periferici. Confortato dai progressi compiuti nel corso del meeting, l’Euro questa mattina si è rafforzato a $1,3990: se chiude la settimana sopra questo livello potrà raggiungere 1,41. Per invertire la tendenza invece dovrebbe tornare sotto 1,3820. Cautela anche per il cambio DollaroYen, ancora sui minimi postbellici mentre non si esclude un intervento della BoJ.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 27th October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
EU leaders finally reached an agreement in the early hours of the morning, but as to whether it was the big bazooka the markets were looking for, only time will tell. The question is whether it will be enough in the long term, or whether it has merely put off the day of reckoning, for a little while longer.
While we now have some numbers to go on it will be all rather pointless of leaders don’t find a way to stimulate growth and we still have the question of Italy’s finances. A bank recapitalisation plan has been agreed with banks required to hold up to 9% of tier 1 capital by June next year, with a figure of €100bn mooted. Given that the extent of private sector involvement (PSI) for Greek haircuts has finally been agreed at 50% it is difficult to estimate how EU leaders arrived at the figure of €100bn, which seems rather low, given the 50% amount agreed.
The German Bundestag ratified the leveraging up of the EFSF to over €1trn, but the final details won’t be know until the end of November, while the head of the EFSF has gone on a round the world trip to the BRIC’s economies begging bowl in hand to try and persuade these emerging economies to put money into the (SPIV) Special Purpose Investment Vehicle, something Brazil was said to have ruled out yesterday.
With all the focus on the debt crisis it is easy to forget that the European economy is moribund in the extreme, and today’s October German CPI numbers will be closely monitored for further weakening in inflationary pressures in the hope that next week the ECB will cut interest rates in an effort to stimulate some growth and take some of the heat out of peripheral bond yields. Expectations are for prices to come in flat for October, with a year on year change of 2.5%.
Eurozone confidence figures are also due out for October, but given the economic back drop it is unlikely they will provide much comfort with industrial confidence expected to slip further to -7, while economic confidence is expected to slip to 93 from 95.
In the UK yesterday’s CBI business optimism and industrial orders plummeted by much more than expected highlighting the overhang of the crisis in Europe on output in the UK sending the pound plunging. Today’s CBI sales numbers aren’t expected to offer much comfort either with expectations of a decline to -16 from -15.
Growth in the US economy will also be under scrutiny later on in the day with the release of the first incarnation of Q3 GDP with expectations high of a strong rebound from Q2’s 1.3% number to 2.5%. There is a concern that the markets could be setting the bar a touch too high here given some of the shocking manufacturing data seen over the past couple of months. US weekly jobless claims are expected to remain around the 400k so no great shakes there.
EURUSD – the euro pushed higher early this morning the edging up towards the 200 week MA’s at 1.3990. It needs to close above here this week to mark a turnaround, though it could go to 1.4100 which is the 200 day MA. 1.4014 is also 61.8% of the 1.4550/1.3150 down move. The euro needs to break back below 1.3820 to retarget last week’s lows at 1.3650, which is the main obstacle to a test towards 1.3520. The outlook remains for a longer term move towards 1.3050, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move.
GBPUSD – continues to remain fairly well supported pushing back above 1.6000 yesterday. The pound has potential to head towards 1.6105 which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 1.6620 to 1.5270. To reopen the downside the pound needs to break back below last week’s 1.5850 resistance which was the 50% retracement of the same move. Back below 1.5850 retargets the 1.5670/80 area as well as last weeks low at 1.5630.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to struggle near the range highs at the 0.8790/00 area and the recent range remains intact with the bias remaining lower. Interim resistance can be found around the 0.8730 area. Only below the 0.8650 area has the potential to see a retest of this month’s lows at 0.8530. A break below 0.8530 looks for a test of 0.8455, 61.8% retracement of the 0.8065/0.9085 up move.
USDJPY – yesterdays new post war low at 75.70 keeps the focus on the downside here, but caution remains the watchword, especially with the Japanese authorities keeping a close eye on the increasing strength of the yen. Further measures to weaken the yen cannot be ruled out. To stabilise in the short term the US dollar needs to get back above 76.40 to retarget 77.00 The recovery in US bond yields, while generating some uplift more hasn’t generated the momentum needed for a move beyond 77.00 let alone 78.00.