M. Hewson: eurodollaro atteso in ulteriore calo a 1,2870
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
Il violento ritracciamento dell’Euro – sceso nelle ultime 24 ore a $1,3010 – ci sorprende solo per il tempo impiegato ad arrivare. Infatti, nonostante i rischi rappresentati da nuovi downgrade di rating sovrani, la mancanza di interventi su larga scala da parte della Bce e la reiterazione della Germania di non volere un aumento dimensionale del fondo Salvastati, è stata una notizia proveniente dagli Stati Uniti il driver che ha di fatto lasciato cadere ogni remora per una discesa della moneta unica: le aspettative di un rafforzamento dell’economia Usa da parte della Fed hanno infatti sgombrato il campo da qualsivoglia ipotesi di nuove fasi di Quantitative Easing nel breve termine. Un elemento che ha immediatamente contribuito a rafforzare il Dollaro Usa e a indebolire mercati azionari ed Euro, smentendo di fatto le posizioni costruite in quest’ottica dai trader. Per quanto riguarda la moneta unica, le attese ora sono per un’ulteriore calo verso $1,2870 (da confermare con una chiusura giornaliera sotto 1,3050) nonostante sia ipotizzabile il tentativo di un pullback verso 1,3150. Prosegue l’indebolimento dell’Euro anche nei confronti della Sterlina: sotto 0,8390 prepariamoci a rivedere i minimi di ottobre 2008 a 0,7695. Quadro rialzista sul cambio DollaroYen: sopra i 77,20 aumentano le possibilità di un rally verso 78,80.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 14th December 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
The slide in the single currency over the past 24 hours is surprising in so far that it has taken so long to come about. Against a backdrop of concerns about ratings downgrades, a lack of large scale ECB intervention, and Angela Merkel’s reiteration that there would be no increase in the new bailout fund, it was news out of the US that really helped push things along.
Last night’s FOMC meeting, while citing an improvement in the US economy, suggested that the biggest risk to any recovery was the European debt crisis. This slightly more upbeat tone about the US economy removed any likelihood of there being any additional measures to boost the economy in the near term, and as such pushed the dollar higher, and in turn sent stocks and the euro lower as investors and traders were denied their QE fix.
Back in Europe, despite slightly lower costs earlier this week, when Italy auctioned 1 year paper, bond yields have continued to creep back up, and later this morning we have another Italian bond auction of €3bn of 2016 bonds.
In light of the mixed ZEW data that was released yesterday, from Germany and the EU, the latest Eurozone industrial production figures for October are also due, and is expected to slip back from 2.2% to 2.1% on an annualised basis, with the monthly figure expected to come in flat after September’s sharp 2% drop.
In the UK in light of yesterday’s improved inflationary outlook attention now turns to the latest unemployment data and it is not expected to improve with the latest jobless claims for November expected to increase from 5.3k in October to 13.7k. The unemployment rate on the ILO measure to October is expected to stay at 8.3%. Despite this negative news the pound has gained on its trade weighted index in recent days pushing against 80.17 trend line resistance from the 2009 highs at 84.74.
EURUSD – yesterday the single currency hit the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move at the 1.3050 level. Given the fact that we overshot to 1.3010, the suggestion is that we could well see further weakness towards the lows this year at 1.2870.
To be comfortable with that idea we need to see a close below 1.3050, and as such the market could be susceptible to sharp pullbacks, towards 1.3150 While above this 1.3000 level the single currency could even remain susceptible to rebounds back towards the 1.3420 area, but the overall momentum continues to remain for a weaker euro.
GBPUSD – the cable continues to remain under pressure as it broke through the trend line support from the post QE2 lows at 1.5270. The cable now looks to be honing in on the longer term support from the 2010 lows at 1.4230 which comes in at 1.5405.Below 1.5400 retargets the 1.5270 lows in October. Pullbacks should now find resistance around the 1.5530 area, while the larger resistance levels remains at the 55 day MA at 1.5740 as well as this month’s high at 1.5780. Only a break above here targets 1.5825 and 1.5900.
EURGBP – the weakness of the last few days after last Friday’s close below the 200 week MA at 0.8567 has seen the single currency head towards the long term trend line support at 0.8390 from the October 2008 lows at 0.7695. A break here has the potential to retest the lows this year at 0.8285. Given the proximity of this long term trend line we could well see a rebound towards the 0.8500 level in the near term, however the near term prognosis argues for further sterling gains.
USDJPY – the US dollar continues to hold above the 77.20/30 level and 55 day MA area and this keeps the likelihood of a rally towards trend line resistance at 78.80 from the 2007 highs at 124.15, on a break above the 78.30 level, intact. The 200 day MA at 79.15 is the key long term resistance. Only below the 55 day MA would undermine this scenario, and risk a move lower that would see the next key support area around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.