M. Hewson: l’eurodollaro si prepara a salire in quota 1,3

Scritto il alle 11:33 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets

Le speranze di raggiungimento di un accordo sul debito greco nel weekend e le notizie secondo cui il FMI starebbe pensando a misure per aumentare i fondi disponibili per i salvataggi danno lieve respiro all’euro, anche se le prospettive di arrivare a un’intesa per la Grecia sono molto ridotte. Le aste di titoli spagnoli e francesi oggi rappresentano un test per verificare se il successo registrato con le offerte di titoli a breve sarà replicato, dopo i downgrade decisi la scorsa settimana da S&P. Attesa anche per il Bollettino mensile della BCE per gennaio.
Negli Usa i dati sulle richieste settimanali di disoccupazione e sui prezzi al consumo di dicembre dovrebbero indicare un miglioramento. EuroDollaro: la moneta unica sembra prepararsi per una rottura attraverso i massimi della scorsa settimana a 1,2880, che se sostenuta potrebbe portare a un movimento verso 1,3000. EuroSterlina: l’euro continua a salire sopra il livello 0,8310, ma dovrebbe rimanere bloccato vicino ai massimi della scorsa settimana verso l’area 0,8370/80. DollaroYen: il dollaro continua a trovare supporto sopra l’area 76,50 ed è scambiato stabilmente sopra questo livello.

The single currency continues to trade with a slightly more positive bias on hopes that a Greek debt deal could well be arrived at by the weekend. While this seems extremely doubtful at this stage, the number of short positions in the single currency appears to be prompting some short covering. This is reflected in the way the market shrugged off the downgrade of Germany by ratings agency Egan Jones. It would appear that the agencies are losing their capacity to surprise.

Reports that the IMF were looking at measures to increase the amount of available funds for bailouts also added some fuel to the rebound, but the practicalities surrounding any measures remain difficult, as well as political, with the US opposed to further funds being added.

All of this week we have had a series of successful short term bond and T-bill auctions, which have been put down to the availability of cheap funds made available by the ECB in the form of LTRO’s.

Today’s longer term Spanish and French bond auctions will be a key benchmark as to whether or not these measures translate beyond the three year time frame of the cheap financing.

They will also be the first longer term auctions since the S&P downgrades of last week and as such will be a key gauge of investor sentiment, with close scrutiny of not only the yields, but also the bid to cover.

France is looking to get away up to €8bn of 2014, 2015 and 2016 bonds, while Spain is looking to raise up to €4bn of 2016, 2019 and 2022 bonds. Just before these auctions the ECB will be publishing its monthly report for January which will show how much the ECB is lending out to keep the stricken European Banking system afloat.

In the US economic data continues to exhibit signs of life and today’s weekly jobless claims are expected to show an improvement to 389k, from last weeks surprise jump to 399k.
Consumer prices for December are expected to show a similar improvement to factory gate prices yesterday with expectations that the annual rate will slip lower from 3.4% to 3.1%.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January is expected to follow in the footsteps of this week’s better than expected Empire manufacturing number, with a rise to 11 from December’s reading of 10.3.

EURUSD – the euro appears to be building up for a break through last week’s highs at 1.2880, which if sustained could well see a sharp move towards 1.3000. Until we get a break it is important to be prudent and as such the bias remains to the downside, while below this level. The key support remains near to the key 1.2600 level that represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590. A concerted break below this level would target 1.2480, the July 2010 lows and then on to 1.2000. The key barrier on the upside remains the resistance around the 1.2870/80 or last weeks highs.

GBPUSD – the pound has finally made it above the 1.5400 level pushing up towards 1.5450 but the move remains a little laboured. As long as we can hold above 1.5360 this move could well push up towards the 1.5570 area. While below the 55 day MA at 1.5740 pressure remains on the downside. The 1.5270 support area remains a key level and obstacle to further sterling declines towards the 1.5190 level, which remains a key support area given that it is 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. There is also support at 1.5125, the July 2010 lows, a break of which targets 1.4980.

EURGBP – the euro continues to make gains above the 0.8310 level but should remain capped anywhere near last weeks highs towards the 0.8370/80 area. Any break above here targets the 55 day MA at 0.8455. This should cap any gains for a move back towards the 0.8220 lows from last week, and target the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05 which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065.

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to find support above the 76.50 area trading steadily above this level. The resistance remains at the confluence of the 55 day MA at 77.55 and trend line resistance at 77.70 from the 2007 highs at 124.15. The key support remains around the November 2011 lows at 76.50 which prompted last week’s pullback. Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.

 

 

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