M. Hewson: attesa per i dati relativi il Pil Usa del Q4
Le ipotesi non confermate di un miglioramento dell’offerta delle banche private per il PSI (Private sector involvment) nella sistemazione del debito della Grecia hanno sostenuto l’euro ieri. Le trattative proseguono per stabilire il tasso dei nuovi bond, che secondo il governo ellenico e la Ue deve essere inferiore al 3,5% per riuscire a ridurre il rapporto debito/Pil ad un livello accettabile nel 2020. Riemergono i timori per il rialzo dei tassi dei bond portoghesi (verso 15% i decennali) e un possibile nuovo salvataggio. In Italia ieri l’asta dei titoli decennali ha registrato un calo dei rendimenti verso 6% e anche i titoli a breve in scadenza nel 2014 sono stati collocati a tassi in discesa. Si vedrà se la flessione dei rendimenti si ripeterà nell’asta in programma oggi per titoli a breve. L’unico dato macroeconomico di rilievo è il Pil Usa del quarto trimestre, particolarmente atteso dopo la decisione della Fed di estendere la previsione di tassi di interesse bassi per sostenere l’economia. EuroDollaro: la rottura sotto 1,3060 può portare a un arretramento verso il livello 1,2940/50, che ha fatto scattare il rimbalzo mercoledì. Il supporto resta a 1.2850/60. EuroSterlina: la moneta unica è venduta sotto 0,8400, mentre c’è resistenza appena sopra questo livello a 0,8420. DollaroYen: un movimento e una chiusura sotto 76,50 porta ai minimi storici a 75,30.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
The single currency rebounded yesterday on unconfirmed talk that private sector banks had tabled an improved offer on the Greek PSI. Talks are set to continue today with speculation that they had given ground on the coupon to 3.75%, but there has been no confirmation of this so far.
The offer is also above the 3.5% demanded by the Greek government and the EU, which is needed to get the debt to GDP ratio down to a more sustainable level by 2020.
Speculation has continued about the ECB’s holdings with some discussion about how to deal with any forced losses on the €40bn worth of bonds held. The prevailing view is that this would be fiercely resisted, but it is hard to see how it could be avoided given the ECB is not a preferred creditor.
With all the focus on Greece attention has also started to shift to Portugal whose own bond yields are continuing to rise sharply with 10 year yields pushing on towards 15%, as fears rise that it to could well need a second bailout.
Italy on the other hand has seen some relief in its borrowing costs as 10 year bond yields slid down towards 6% yesterday. Shorter term borrowing costs have also fallen back sharply as Italy managed get €4.5bn of 2014 bonds away at significantly reduced yields, while today’s auction of €8bn of 6 month bills and €3bn of 11 month bills, should see similar falls in yields.
The only other data of note today is the publication of US Q4 GDP which is of particular importance in light of the Fed’s surprising decision to extend its low rate outlook on Wednesday.
Wednesday’s decision was all the more surprising given that the expectation for today’s GDP numbers is for a strong recovery from Q3’s 1.8% to a rise of 3%. Given that the Federal Reserve also downgraded their growth forecasts for 2012 to between 2.2% and 2.7%, it does raise the concern that markets expectations could be on the high side.
On the flip side yesterday’s better than expected durable goods orders for December and the upward revision to the November figure have encouraged expectations of a good number, around that 3% mark. A disappointing number would certainly increase the possibility of a further round of asset purchases sooner, rather than later.
Even if the number does come in as expected US GDP does have a habit of getting revised lower. Q3’s numbers were a case in point, as they also initially came in high at 2.5% before being subsequently revised downwards to 1.8%, largely as a result of weak retail spending and the worry is that Q4 could go the same way.
EURUSD – yesterday’s move to 1.3180 stopped well short of the 1.3250 38.2% retracement of the down move from the 1.4250/1.2610 down move. There is still potential to hit this level but only if we stay above the 1.3060 level. A break below 1.3060 has the potential to open up a move back towards the 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound on Wednesday. The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.
GBPUSD – the pound completed nine successive up days in a row yesterday which suggests it could well be time for a down day. The failure to take out the December highs at 1.5770, running out of steam at 1.5730, keeps the bias to the downside and the longer term downtrend intact. Only a move above 1.5780 targets a move towards 1.5920. The 1.5500 area should continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find sellers just below the 0.8400 level while there is larger resistance just above that at 0.8420. While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.
USDJPY – after threatening to rally above 78.30 resistance and the 200 day MA earlier this week the US dollar has fallen back, once again raising concerns about the strong yen, and possible central bank intervention from the BoJ. It needs a move beyond these two resistance levels to target a move towards the October 2011 highs at 79.55. The lows this month and in November at 76.50 remain the key support. Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.