M. Hewson: trovato l’accordo sul secondo piano di salvataggio della Grecia

Scritto il alle 10:46 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets.

Dopo ore di trattative nella notte è stato raggiunto l’accordo sul secondo piano di salvataggio della Grecia, che potrà così far fronte al pagamento di 14,5 miliardi di bond in marzo ed evitare un default disordinato. Resta però la necessità di ridurre il rapporto tra debito e Pil al 120% entro il 2020 e inoltre i creditori privati devono accettare un taglio del 53,5%, invece del 50% originario, dei loro portafogli. I problemi sono evidenziati nel rapporto della Troika sulla Grecia, che pone interrogativi sulla sostenibilità del piano, soggetto a possibili imprevisti.
Vista l’entità del debito è probabile che la Grecia avrà bisogno di altri 50 miliardi di euro tra il 2015 e il 2020 in aggiunta ai 130 miliardi del secondo piano di salvataggio. EuroDollaro: il livello 1,3325 rimane una resistenza chiave; in ribasso è necessario un movimento sotto 1,3080 per ritornare verso i minimi delle scorse settimane a 1,2975. EuroSterlina: resistenza in area 0,8420/30, supporto a 0,8270/80. DollaroYen: livello chiave sui massimi di agosto 2011 a 80,25.

 

Greece gets its second bailout

After hours of tortuous negotiations Greece was finally granted its second bailout in the early hours of this morning and thus now be able to meet the €14.5bn bond payment in March, and thus avert a messy default.

It has come at a cost though after an IMF/Troika report laid bare the problems facing the Greek economy, and it now rests on whether markets think the program is even remotely credible, or achievable for that matter, as Greece seeks to rebuild its broken economy.
While the package may buy more time it remains highly debateable whether it will achieve the measures it is designed to, given the magnitude of the problems in the country.

The main problem revolved around Greece’s debt sustainability as policymakers strove to pass a package that would get the debt to GDP ratio down to 120% of GDP by 2020. In the event policymakers expect this package to get the ratio down to 120.5% of GDP.

To close the gap pressure is once again being exerted on the private creditors to take even bigger write downs on their holdings, from the original 50% haircut to 53.5%. The problems are laid bare in the Troika report on Greece’s finances that states on a baseline scenario Greece will only manage to cut its debts to 129% of GDP by 2020. There is also an acknowledgment that the current policy of austerity could well be self defeating and that reforms may not be implemented quickly enough meaning that the debt to GDP ratio could be as high as 160% of GDP in 2020. The exact phraseology was that the “Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it.”

These debt dynamics suggest that there will inevitably be more pressure for some form of official sector involvement, as well as the likelihood that Greece will need an additional €50bn between 2015 and 2020, on a best case scenario, in addition to the second €130bn bailout. There is also expected to be a permanent troika presence in Athens, to ensure compliance with the latest austerity measures, while an escrow mechanism will also be put in place to monitor the flow of funds.

The state of the UK public finances will once again come under the microscope this morning with the PSNB January numbers expected to show a surplus of £8.9bn as last minute tax receipts pour in as the tax return window closed at the end of January. These figures should ensure, unless there is a major hit to tax revenues in February or March that the Chancellor will come in under his fiscal deficit target for 2011 of £127bn.

EURUSD – yesterday’s high at 1.3275 fell short of the key resistance at 1.3325, however this level remains a key resistance level given it is the 100 day MA, and capped the pullback from the January lows at 1.2625. Behind that we also have resistance at 1.3435 which is the 50% retracement of the 1.4245/1.2625 down move. On the downside we need to see a move below 1.3080 to reopen a move back towards last weeks lows at 1.2975.

GBPUSD – yesterday’s high at 1.5880 fell short of the previous high and the 200 day MA at the 1.5920/30 area. This remains a key obstacle to further gains; however a close above the 200 day MA could well see 1.6080. Pullbacks should find support at 1.5730, while below that the key support remains at the 55 day MA at 1.5610. Below 1.5600 retargets 1.5500 which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.5270/1.5930 up move.

EURGBP – the wider range trade looks set to continue to play out with the break above the 0.8340 level potentially retargeting the 0.8400 level and broader resistance and range highs so far this year at the 0.8420/30 area. Any break could well see 0.8500 quite quickly. The 0.8270/80 support level remains a key level for any move towards 0.8220, the old support.

USDJPY – as suspected the US dollar struggled just shy of the 80.00 area yesterday pulling back from highs of 79.90. The key level lies at the August 2011 peaks at 80.25 and a break above these levels is required to really kick on. Pullbacks have remained limited for now after last weeks break above the 200 day MA now far behind us at 78.05. The four hour charts continue to look stretched which continue to suggest we could struggle anywhere near the 80.00 level. While below this resistance we could well see the 78.20 level, but last weeks sharp move higher in 10 year US bond yields suggests continues to bode well for further gains.

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