M. Hewson: l’Ifo tedesco atteso in recupero

Scritto il alle 11:30 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets.

Dopo i deludenti dati PMI tedeschi di ieri, ci si aspetta oggi che l’indice IFO sulla fiducia delle imprese in Germania in febbraio dia una buona indicazione sullo stato dell’economia, proseguendo il recente recupero. L’economia della Germania è stata una delle poche isole felici in Europa negli ultimi tempi e la speranza è che questo trend continui. I problemi della Grecia restano sullo sfondo con le trattative in corso per il PSI (coinvolgimento del settore privato). Il 12 marzo la Grecia dovrebbe procedere con il concambio dei titoli di stato, i detentori dei bond dovrebbero accettare una svalutazione del 75%.
L’entità dello swap ha indotto l’agenzia di rating Fitch a dare alla Grecia il rating di selective default. Un altro problema è il rifiuto della Germania ad incrementare l’ESM (European Stability Mechanism) o farlo funzionare in contemporanea con l’EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility), il che potrebbe indurre i paesi del Fmi a non versare altri fondi a sostegno delle nazioni Ue. Il Fmi per ora sta dando solo il 10% dei fondi per il nuovo piano di salvataggio della Grecia.
In Gran Bretagna gli investitori sono preoccupati per il recente calo della sterlina, che ha messo in crisi la percezione della moneta inglese come parziale rifugio in alternativa all’euro. I dati odierni su prezzi di vendita e ordini industriali CBI dovrebbero dare indicazioni sul trend dei prezzi e dell’economia. Negli Usa attenzione ai dati sui sussidi di disoccupazione.
EuroDollaro: resistenza a 1,3310 e buon supporto appena sotto 1,3200. EuroSterlina: un movimento sotto 0,8400 riporterebbe al vecchio pivot 0,8340, mentre un movimento al di sotto di questo riporta ai minimi 0,8270/80. DollaroYen: la rottura sopra 80,00 indica che potremmo vedere un movimento verso 82,85 nel breve termine. Sotto 79,20 si prospetta un movimento ampio verso 78,20.

 

German IFO set to continue its recent recovery

 

After the disappointment of yesterday’s services and manufacturing German PMI data for February cast doubt on the robustness in the strength of the rebound in the German economy in Q1 today’s release of the latest IFO business climate should give a good indication as to whether the PMI data was just a temporary aberration. The Business climate index is expected to continue its recent recovery, coming in at 108.8 from a previous 108.3, while the current assessment is also expected to improve from 116.3 to 116.5. The German economy has been one of the few bright spots in Europe in recent weeks and the hope is that will continue, despite the problems elsewhere.

The problems in Greece have taken a back seat for now but they are still there in the background with negotiations ongoing with respect to the PSI, as well as discussions with respect to increases to the bailout fund. Greece is expected to conduct the bond swap on March 12th. The swap will see bondholders take up to a 75% write down with any holdouts dealt with by the implementation of collective action clauses as long as two thirds are in favour. It is this debt swap figure that prompted ratings agency Fitch to put Greece onto a rating of selective default, an action which the markets shrugged off.

Another problem is Germany’s refusal to increase the ESM or run it alongside the EFSF, which could prompt IMF countries to resist from putting up additional funds to help in the bailouts of other EU nations. As it is the IMF is only putting in 10% of the funds to the new Greek bailout, which suggests there is a concern however unlikely, that it may well not get its money back.

The recent decline in the pound in the past few days was helped on its way yesterday by unexpectedly dovish Bank of England minutes, as investors worried about the prospect of further QE amidst some confusion as to why the MPC was so downbeat about the UK economy in spite of the recent improvement in economic data. There is a certain correlation in the outlook that the Bank of England has about the UK economy which chimes with recent downbeat comments about the US economy by Fed Chairman Bernanke despite recent improvements in data over there, and this appears to have unsettled markets perception of the pound as a relative haven from the travails of the euro.

Concerns about inflationary pressures could well start to resurface despite the recent drop in inflation given the recent strength in the oil price, and today’s latest data from the CBI on selling prices and total orders should give a good indication as to whether pricing pressures continue to subside and whether economic activity continues to improve. Total orders are expected to improve from -16 to -13, while selling prices is expected to drop slightly from 13 to 12.

In the US the latest weekly jobless claims numbers will be once again closely monitored for continued signs of improvement in the US labour market after last week’s surprise 348k showed that claims continued to fall at a faster than expected rate. Today’s numbers are expected to rise slightly to 355k.

EURUSD – the single currency remains boringly range bound between the 100 day MA resistance at 1.3310 and well supported just below the 1.3200 level. Only a move above 1.3325, which has so far capped the pullback from the January lows at 1.2625 has the potential to target resistance at 1.3435 which is the 50% retracement of the 1.4245/1.2625 down move. On the downside we need to see a move below 1.3080 to reopen a move back towards last weeks lows at 1.2975.

GBPUSD – another very negative day for sterling yesterday saw the pound take out the support at 1.5730 and the next support level now becomes very important at the 55 day MA at 1.5615. A break here retargets the 1.5500 area which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.5270/1.5930 up move. The pound needs to get back above the 1.5730 level to retarget the 1.5820 area.

EURGBP – yesterday’s unexpected move above the recent range highs at 0.8420/30 has the potential to trigger further sterling losses towards the 0.8520 level, which had acted as solid support for most of the last quarter of 2011. Only a move below the 0.8400 level and previous highs can prevent that in the short term. A move below the 0.8400 level would then retarget the old pivot at 0.8340, while a move below that retargets the 0.8270/80 range lows.

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to push on as it hit its highest levels since July last year at 80.39. The daily close above the 80.20 level reinforces the positive bias here despite the overstretched nature of the current move. The break above 80.00 suggests we could well see a move towards 82.85 in the near term, which is a 38.2% retracement of the entire down move from the 95.00 highs to the all time lows at 75.30. The four hour charts still continue to suggest some form of a pullback, the main problem is the timing of it and we could well the dollar slide back towards 79.20, without undermining the upward momentum. Below 79.20 argues for a deeper move towards the 78.20 level, but the recent resilience in 10 year US bond yields continues to bode well for further gains.

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