M. Hewson: il Pil del Q4 di Gran Bretagna e Germania dovrebbe confermare una contrazione

Scritto il alle 11:08 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets.

La previsione dell’Ue che le economie dei 17 paesi dell’eurozona dovrebbero contrarsi dello 0,3% nel 2012 rispetto ad una crescita dello 0,5% prevista a novembre mostra quanto siano difficili le stime sulla crescita e quanto siano poco realistici gli obiettivi di crescita pronosticati per la Grecia per i prossimi otto anni in relazione al secondo piano di salvataggio.
Sembra comunque che l’economia tedesca stia riprendendo vigore nel primo trimestre, se i dati IFO di ieri sono indicativi e dovrebbero quindi confermare che la revisione di stamani del quarto trimestre (-0,2%) è solo un incidente. Il risanamento della Grecia intanto continua a incontrare ostacoli, il Fmi ha fatto capire che non darà ulteriore supporto e che potrebbe addirittura tagliare il contributo di 13 miliardi di euro al piano di salvataggio se la Germania non accetta di aumentare il sostegno europeo. La Grecia intanto prepara la normativa per il lancio del concambio del debito per i creditori privati con le clausole di azione collettiva entro il 12 marzo.
In Gran Bretagna la seconda revisione del Pil del quarto trimestre dovrebbe confermare una contrazione dello 0,2%, nonostante gli ultimi dati mostrino una ripresa dell’attività industriale e manifatturiera in dicembre.
EuroDollaro: il movimento di ieri sopra 1,3325 apre la strada verso 1,3440. Eventuali arretramenti incontrano supporto tra 1,3300 e 1,3320. EuroSterlina: se si supera 0,8500 non si può escludere il raggiungimento di 0,8550. Solo al di sotto di 0,8400 si profila la verifica del vecchio pivot 0,8340. DollaroYen: resta il rischio di uno scivolamento a 79,20 nel breve termine; permane il potenziale per un movimento verso 82,85 a breve.

UK and German Q4 GDP expected to confirm contraction

The prediction by the EU that the 17 nation eurozone economies would contract by 0.3% in 2012 down from November’s 0.5% growth, saw a slight sell-off in European markets yesterday, but they look set to bounce back this morning as optimism about the US economy continues to gain traction.

Even so the fact that the EU had to change their growth predictions only 4 months after the last amendment shows how difficult growth projections can be, and as such highlight how unrealistic Greece’s predicted growth targets in relation the latest bailout for the next eight years are.

If the EU can’t predict 6 months in advance what chance 8 years? It does seem, however that the German economy appears to be picking up steam in Q1 if yesterday’s IFO numbers are any indication, and are likely to confirm that this morning’s Q4 revision of -0.2% is nothing more than a quarterly aberration.

At any rate the Greece bailout continues to run into obstacles ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting in Mexico. Under pressure from the IMF to increase the European firewall above the €500bn originally planned Germany is digging its heels in after the IMF and a number of other EU countries urged it to do so.

The IMF has also suggested that it could withhold further assistance and even cut back its €13bn contribution to the latest bailout plan if Germany doesn’t show signs of compromise on this issue. While all this is going on behind the scenes Greece is pushing ahead with legislation to launch the debt swap for private bondholders complete with collective action clauses. This should go ahead by March 12th. Greece also has to pass a number of other laws relating to tax and spending in order to gain access to the new funds, in the next week or so.

It would seem EU creditors are setting the bar high early on in order to ensure compliance, but it remains hard to see how there will be the will to carry the measures through, when there is so much opposition on the ground.

In the UK the second Q4 GDP revision is expected to confirm a contraction of 0.2% at the end of last year, despite recent data showing a recovery in both December industrial and manufacturing production activity. The recent better than expected trade numbers also bode well for a positive surprise, but economists seem to think that the -0.2% number will stay as it is. Given the surprise factor in recent numbers and the figures are revised upwards then it begs the question, given the fairly positive data seen recently, as to why the Bank of England felt it necessary to embark on a new round of stimulus.

EURUSD – yesterday’s move above the 100 day MA and 1.3325 now opens up a move towards 1.3440 which is the 50% retracement of the 1.4245/1.2625 down move, and could see a deeper move towards the 61.8% level at 1.3630. Any pullbacks should now find support between 1.3300 and 1.3320 which had until recently been a solid top. Only a move back below here argues for a move back down to 1.3180, and then the 1.3000 level.

GBPUSD – a welcome rebound for sterling yesterday saw the pound recover from the 1.5640 area and recover back through the 1.5730 level, which could well retarget the 1.5820 area. The 55 day MA at 1.5615 remains the ultimate line on the sand for sterling downside, a break of which could well retarget the 1.5500 area which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.5270/1.5930 up move. The 200 day MA just above 1.5900 is the main barrier to a move to 1.6080.

EURGBP – we got the expected move to the 0.8500 level yesterday as the single currency continues to feel the wind at its back. If we get through 0.8500 then a spill over to 0.8550 cannot be ruled out which is 38.2% retracement of the 0.9085/0.8220 down move. The recent range highs at 0.8420/30 should now act as significant support on the downside Only a move below the 0.8400 level and previous highs opens up a retest of the old pivot at 0.8340, while a move below that retargets the 0.8270/80 range lows.

USDJPY – the US dollars push above the 80.00 level has been so far unable to gain significant traction so there remains a risk we could see a slide back to 79.20 in the short term. Potential remains for a move towards 82.85 in the near term, which is a 38.2% retracement of the entire down move from the 95.00 highs to the all time lows at 75.30. Below 79.20 argues for a deeper move towards the 78.20 level, but the recent resilience in 10 year US bond yields continues to bode well for further gains.

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