M. Hewson: Tornano i timori per Spagna e Italia e i rendimenti dei bond ricominciano a salire

Scritto il alle 10:03 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst, CMC Markets UK)

Sui mercati tornano i timori per le prospettive della Spagna (dove i dati mostrano che l’economia scivola verso la recessione, mentre il governo cerca di ridurre la spesa per rispettare gli obiettivi di Bruxelles) e dell’Italia.
La Germania sembra orientata verso un abbinamento dei fondi EFSF e ESM, mantenendo però il limite di 740 miliardi di euro di dotazione, ma il segretario generale dell’Ocse Angel Gurria ieri ha affermato che sarebbe necessario un ammontare superiore a 1.000 miliardi di euro per dare un segnale ai mercati. Il Fmi sembra incerto sull’incremento del proprio contributo, mentre il presidente uscente dell’Eurogruppo Juncker ha detto che opporsi a un aumento rischia di lasciare l’euro esposto al contagio e nei mercati si diffonde l’idea che le misure fiscali imposte da Berlino aggravano invece di risolvere i problemi in Europa.
In agenda oggi il dato finale del Pil del quarto trimestre della Gran Bretagna e l’indice dei prezzi al consumo di marzo per la Germania. Negli Usa i dati sugli ordini dei beni durevoli di febbraio saranno un test per verificare la ripresa dell’economia.
Eurodollaro: per l’euro i massimi dell’anno a 1,3490 restano la resistenza chiave; una rottura sotto il livello 1,3290/00 ripropone il minimo in area 1,3135 sulla strada verso 1,3000. EuroSterlina: ancora in range con il livello 0,8370 a fare da blocco per eventuali rally e un supporto intorno a 0,8320. DollaroYen: la principale resistenza rimane a 84,10/20, con possibile consolidamento verso il supporto a 80,60 nel breve periodo, ma la tendenza è per un  movimento di lungo termine al rialzo.

 

Spain and Italy fears return as bond yields start to rise again

 

After the Bernanke induced gains of the early part of the week European markets look set to open lower this morning as a sense of proportion returns to the markets, and concerns about Spain and Italy’s fiscal outlook return .

Concerns about Spain continue to dominate after data showed that the economy was slipping back into recession in 2012, while the government remained committed to slashing spending across the board in an attempt to meet Brussels targets of a deficit of 2012 of 5.3% of GDP.

While there does appear to be some progress on the firewall question with Germany reported to be slowly moving towards some combination of the EFSF and ESM progress on the firewall question to a total of €740bn, there is widespread concern that even that will not be enough if contagion spreads beyond Greece and Portugal. Germany probably mindful of its own triple “A” rating, which was reaffirmed last night by Moody’s, continues to hold the line on this amount, but OECD secretary general Angel Gurria warned yesterday that a figure in excess of €1trn would be needed to send a signal to the markets, that firewall should be “the mother of all firewalls”.

Pressure is beginning to build however with the IMF already twitchy about increasing its contributions, while the OECD has now had its say while outgoing eurogroup head Juncker also made the point that opponents of an increase risked leaving the euro exposed to contagion pressures. It would appear that Germany is slowly being backed into a corner as markets realise that the fiscal adjustments being insisted on by Berlin are making the problems in southern Europe worse, not better.

The current opposition to further bailouts in the German parliament could well soon be tested if it looks like the current bailout fund looks insufficient in averting contagion pressures. This morning French Q4 GDP was confirmed at 0.2%, however it is widely accepted that this was a quirk, and that in Q1 the French economy slipped into contraction, if recent data is any indication.

In the UK the final Q4 GDP number is expected to be confirmed at -0.2%, which would be unusual in the sense that in recent times there have usually subsequent revisions of the headline figure, while in this case there hasn’t at all. Business investment is expected to improve slightly from -5.6% to -5.4%, with market reaction likely to be muted given that these numbers are pretty well much priced in with expectations high that Q1 will see a bounce back. Initial signs are encouraging as we head into the end of the first quarter.

German CPI for March is expected to slow down despite rising energy costs, where oil prices hit euro area record highs, coming in slightly lower, and dropping from 2.5% to 2.3%. In the US the recent recovery in economic data will be once again be tested with the latest data on big ticket items with the latest February durable goods orders, with expectations high that we could well see a bounce back with a rise of 3%, from January’s rather nasty 3.7% drop.

EURUSD – a marginal new peak at 1.3385 yesterday, however the euro appears to be struggling to put distance between itself and the break out level at 1.3290/00. The 1.3490 highs for this year remain the next key resistance, however momentum does appear to be starting to wane, which suggests we may not get there. A break back below the 1.3290/00 level retargets last weeks low at the 1.3135 area, on the way back to the 1.3000 level.

GBPUSD – the pound hit the 1.6000 level yesterday but was unable to break above it, slipping lower again. A break above the 1.6000 level retargets the October and November highs at 1.6170. The 1.5920 level now remains a key support on the downside while a break below could well retarget the 1.5820 level. Once below that the 1.5610 50% retracement of the entire up move from the 1.5240 lows to the 1.5990 highs remains a key support.

EURGBP – still in the broader range with the 0.8370 level keeping a lid on any rally for now, though the 0.8400 level remains the larger level and as such the single currency remains range bound with support around the 0.8320 area. While below the 0.8400 level the focus remains for a move towards a retest of the January lows at 0.8220, on a break below the 0.8280 level. Above 0.8400 retargets the 0.8425 area.

USDJPY – yesterday’s rally in the dollar saw buying interest taper off around the 83.40 level. The broader resistance remains at the double top at 84.10/20, but last week’s drop saw a bearish engulfing weekly candle which suggests in the short term a period of consolidation towards the cloud support at 80.60. In the medium term we could well have seen a short term top, but the bias remains for a longer term move higher, while US 10 year yields remain firm.

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