M. Hewson: focus sui dati PMI costruzioni mentre cresce l’ottimismo in GB

Scritto il alle 10:25 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst, CMC Markets UK)

In Gran Bretagna l’indice PMI del settore manifatturiero, diffuso ieri e risultato migliore delle aspettative, sembra confermare che era troppo pessimista la previsione dell’Ocse, la scorsa settimana, secondo cui l’economia britannica si avvierebbe verso la recessione con una contrazione prevista dello 0,1% nel primo trimestre.
Oggi i dati PMI per il settore costruzioni dovrebbero essere positivi, ma sarà l’indice PMI dei servizi, domani, a dare indicazioni più chiare sullo stato dell’economia. In Europa i dati PMI del settore manifatturiero e quelli sulla disoccupazione ieri hanno rafforzato i timori per l’assenza della crescita e l’aumento delle persone senza lavoro, soprattutto in Spagna, dove la disoccupazione giovanile ha superato il 50% per la prima volta.
Oggi il parlamento spagnolo dovrebbe ratificare le misure di austerità che, in assenza di altri provvedimenti, accentueranno probabilmente il numero dei disoccupati e deprimeranno l’economia già in recessione.
Negli Usa le minute del FOMC dovrebbero fornire qualche elemento per capire le recenti dichiarazioni del Presidente della Fed, che ha ridimensionato la forza della ripresa dell’economia Usa. In Australia le attese per un taglio dei tassi nei prossimi due mesi probabilmente cresceranno, nonostante che i tassi oggi siano rimasti fermi al 4,25%. I timori di rallentamento in Cina sono stati ridimensionati dagli ultimi dati dell’indice PMI dei servizi, che hanno segnato un forte aumento.
EuroDollaro: l’euro trova supporto a 1,3280; solo al di sopra di 1,3385/90 può testare il livello 1,3490. DollaroYen: la resistenza chiave resta a 84,10/20; possibile nel breve termine una fase di consolidamento verso il supporto a 80,60 dopo la rottura sotto 81,90.

 

Construction PMI in focus as UK optimism increases

Last week the OECD warned that the UK economy was set to record a technical recession with Q1 growth predicted to contract 0.1%, which given the recent data we’ve seen so far this year appears to be on the rather pessimistic side of expectations. It’s certainly not a widely held view and the likelihood of the OECD prediction being too pessimistic increased yesterday when UK manufacturing PMI for March once again confounded economist expectations by coming in much better than expected at 52.1.

This was much better than February’s number, and well above expectations of a much lower number of 50.7. The release today of construction PMI this morning is expected to be similarly positive with expectations that the March numbers will slip back from 54.3 to 53.4, though it will be on Wednesday’s services PMI that will be of the most interest given how services dominated the UK economy is.

In Europe the lack of growth and rising unemployment continues to weigh on sentiment and yesterday’s manufacturing PMI data reinforced those concerns as did the fact that unemployment continues to rise, especially in Spain where youth unemployment has breached the 50% level for the first time. The latest increase in unemployment figures is expected to see another 54k added to last months 112k this morning.

Today the Spanish parliament is expected to ratify the latest austerity budget which in the absence of any other measures will in all likelihood continue to push the unemployment rate ever higher and put an economy already in recession under even more pressure.

Yesterday’s positive US ISM manufacturing report sent the S&P to its highest levels since May 2008 as investors continued to buy into the recovery in the US economy. Today’s FOMC minutes are expected to give an insight into the thinking that prompted Chairman Bernanke’s rather dovish comments just over a week ago that continued to raise questions as to why the Fed continues to play down the strength in economic activity, especially given that the number of people in employment is continuing to rise as well.

Markets will also be looking at the cross section of views with respect to the prospect of further QE given recent comments from various policymakers who have argued that it is not necessary. This week’s ADP and Non farm payroll data are expected to reinforce the positive sentiment surrounding the US as it continues to decouple from Europe.

Expectations for a rate cut from the RBA over the next couple of months are likely to increase today despite the fact that rates were kept on hold at 4.25% today. Notwithstanding fears about a possible slowdown in China crimping metals demand, deteriorating economic data in Australia as well as a slowing growth outlook is also weighing on sentiment. These Chinese slowdown fears were undermined by last night’s services PMI which saw a marked increase in economic activity, rising from 48.4 in February to 58 in March.

EURUSD – yet another failure at the 1.3385/90 highs yesterday saw the euro slide back once again finding support in the mid to high 1.3200’s, yesterday at 1.3280. Only above 1.3385/90 looks to test 1.3490 level. To retarget the 1.3000 level we would need to see a break of the 1.3250 support though last week’s lows at 1.3190 could well prove to be tricky as well.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to hold above the 200 week MA, with a low yesterday of 1.5980 as we look to close in on the October 2011 highs of 1.6170. Only a move below 1.5930 would delay that possibility and retarget a move back towards 1.5820 and last week’s low. As mentioned yesterday the weekly close remains important at this juncture as we monitor the direction of the weekly close. Having traded above the 200 week MA for the first time since August 2008 a close above this level remains structurally positive for the pound.

EURGBP – the 0.8400 level continues to be rejected and yesterday we saw the pound move below the 0.8320 support area to close in on the March low at 0.8280, which remains the next key support area. A move below 0.8280 retargets the January low at 0.8220.

USDJPY – the push down to 81.75 in Asia this morning below yesterday’s lows suggests we could be building up for a test lower in the short term towards 80.60. The key resistance remains at the double top at 84.10/20, but while below these levels we need to remain mindful of the bearish engulfing weekly candle of two weeks ago which suggests in the short term a period of consolidation towards the cloud support at 80.60 remains possible on a break below 81.90. A break above 84.20 negates the bearish candle and suggests a move to 85.15.

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