B. Kelly: i timori per l’Eurozona condizionano il sentiment
Il G20 si riunisce questa settimana e l’agenda è obbligata. La pressione sui rendimenti dei bond spagnoli e la forte dipendenza della Spagna dal sostegno della Bce fanno temere che anche in questo caso sarà necessario un intervento di salvataggio con notevoli effetti sull’Eurozona, soprattutto se anche l’Italia seguisse l’esempio. Un esito deludente dell’asta dei bond spagnoli mercoledì potrebbe far scattare qualche tipo di intervento. Anche i mercati asiatici arretrano su questi timori, che domineranno le borse a livello globale.
In uscita oggi i dati sulla bilancia commerciale dell’Eurozona, ma l’attenzione sarà concentrata sugli Usa, dove sono in calendario: vendite al dettaglio, TIC Long Term Purchases, livello delle scorte di magazzino delle aziende e indice Empire State delle aziende. Gli investitori che puntano su un QE ascolteranno con attenzione il discorso dell’esponente della Fed Pianalto in serata.
Eurodollaro: fino a che non viene rotto il livello 1,3180 la possibilità di un ritorno sopra 1,3280 è scarsa. Oltre questo livello potremmo assistere ad un nuovo test dell’area 1,34. Il livello 1,3050 rimane intatto come supporto. DollaroYen: la rottura di 80,90 potrebbe determinare un ritorno verso il successivo supporto intorno a 80,09. Resistenza a 81,06 e poi a 81,80. Solo una chiusura decisa sopra 83,40 può ricondurre verso 84,18.
Euro Zone Fears set to Drive Sentiment
The G20 will meet this week and the agenda should write itself. Matters in Europe have been heating up once again, with Spain and to a slightly lesser degree, Italy suffering the worst of the onslaught. The pressure on its bond yields and over-dependence on ECB funding is adding to the mounting evidence that Spain will in fact need a bailout. This has reignited the fears that should this occur, that the Euro zone will be courting disaster with what is deemed by the markets an insufficient firewall, particularly if Italy follows suit.
With many foreign governments unwilling to participate, including the USA, despite some input from the IMF, a poor Spanish bond auction this Wednesday could at the very least trigger some intervention. Asian markets are dropping back on these very concerns, despite the loosening of China’s currency controls so this will no doubt be the main sentiment driver for global equities this week.
There is little in the way of UK or European data due today but for the European Trade Balance this morning with expectations that the surplus of the whole zone is expected to shrink from €5.9bn to 4.3bn. The focus will be firmly on the US today, with the glut of data emerging just prior to the US open. Following decent earnings from Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, Citigroup will kick off earnings for the financial sector this week.
With US fundamentals seeming weaker recently, whether American consumer spending will save the day remains uncertain. The Core Retail Sales number today is expected to trail that of last month’s 1.1% increase, with expectations for a print of 0.4%. The retail sales excluding autos could fare better due to warmer weather; the sales for the new iPad are likely to impact to the upside also.
The TIC Long Term Purchases is likely to show a reduction on last month with a number of 41.3bn, while Business Inventories will show a similar figure to last month at 0.7%. Following the bell, The Empire State Manufacturing Index which has shown strength over the past 6 months is expected to slip back to 18 from last month’s 20.2. Similar to last week, investors looking for a QE fix will be watching for any crumbs of information Fed member Pianalto may drop during his speaking engagement this evening.
EURUSD – the 1.3150 level was short-lived with the single currency was held back by the 55 day MA. Until we see a break above the 1.3180 level the possibility of a return to and above the 1.3280 level is lessened. Above that could see a retest of the 1.34 area. Again the 1.3050 remains intact as key support, the break of which could well target the well bid 1.30 levels. Below that could see a return to February’s lows of 1.2970.
GBPUSD – the 1.5820 level remains the key support. Having failed to remain above the 1.59 there is downside bias for the pound A break through here could see a move to the recent highs of 1.6070. Below 1.5820 and the 55 day MA and the breach of the psychological 1.58 could precipitate a slide back to 1.5610.
EURGBP – 0.8300 is the key resistance for this pair. Trading in a range, the euro is struggling to sustain a move above 0.8270. The January lows of 0.8220 remain untested and act as the main barrier to euro weakness. A break below this support opens up the possibility for a retest of 0.8140 last seen in August last year. Above the 0.8300 level the 55 Day MA should cap gains around the 0.8350 level.
USDJPY – the 55 day MA at 80.90 is currently being put to the test A convincing breach here could see a pullback towards the next support zone around the 80.09 mark. The 81.06 level (38.2% retracement of the 76.02/84.18 highs is capping dollar upside with 81.80 posing further resistance. Only a convincing close above 83.40 would see a retest of the recent 84.18.