Forex Morning Comments: riflettori puntati sulla Spagna

Scritto il alle 10:22 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Brenda Kelly, senior market analyst e Ben Taylor, sales trader di CMC Markets.

Occhi puntati su Spagna e prezzi nella giornata di oggi: l’asta dei Bonos a 12 mesi non desta preoccupazioni in quanto  a bid-to-cover ratio quanto piuttosto ai rendimenti che potrebbe spuntare, spia che potrebbe decretarne il mood nell’appuntamento con il mercato di domani.
L’inflazione in discesa – conseguenza del rallentamento economico globale –  potrebbe supportare una politica monetaria espansiva anche da parte della RBA australiana: un dato che si attestasse sul range del 2-3% porterebbe un taglio del costo del denaro di 25 punti base al 4%. Si ha l’impressione che una dinamica più contenuta nella crescita dei prezzi possa dare il via libera ad un’ulteriore tornata di Quantitative Easing da parte della Bank of England e confermare la “no exit strategy” delineata dal Presidente della Bce e che potrebbe annunciare oggi in uno speech a Francoforte un prossimo intervento o al contrario escluderlo.
L’Eurodollaro mostra ancora una forte resistenza sul livello di 1,30:  finchè non vedremo un superamento di area 1,3150-80 difficilmente il cambio potrà tornare a 1,3280. Ancora ben impostata la Sterlina: nei confronti del DollaroUsa 1,5820 rimane un livello chiave per deciderne la direzionalità, nei confronti dell’Euro (contro il quale ieri ha raggiunto i massimi degli ultimi diciotto mesi) sotto 0,8220 potremmo rivedere 0,8140.Trend rialzista dello Yen sul Dollaro con la possibilità di ritornare a 79.16: solo un ritorno sopra 83.40 potrebbe invertire la tendenza in atto.

 

 

Spain set to sell 12mths and 18mths bills

 

Overnight, the Royal Bank of Australia has indicated the probability of a rate cut in May should the slowing economic growth continue to curb inflation. The Australian data is due next week, so a release within the 2-3% level will likely see the 4.25% base rate slashed to 4%.

The Spanish auction will take place this morning and while not as important as tomorrow’s longer dated bond auction, investor attention will be focused on the outcome. A weak bid to cover is unlikely given the short maturity dates but an increase in yield could very well be impact tomorrow’s market outing.  A busy day on the macro front in Europe with the important German Zew Economic Sentiment survey results due. An optimistic figure is expected today, although a slide from last month’s 22.3 to 20.3 is probably on the cards.

The headline CPI for the Euro zone, will as predicted by the ECB remain above the target of 2% but is expected to drop back a little this time to a figure of 2.6%.  The significance of the events today is heightened as they will occur prior to ECB president Draghi’s speech at a Frankfurt conference.

Following his rhetoric at the last ECB meeting that an exit strategy was unlikely, the results today, if different to consensus opinion could see either a commitment to market intervention via SMP or indeed rule it out. In the UK, inflation numbers are also due, with market consensus for a print of 3.5%. Anything higher than this will likely call into question any further QE from the Bank of England.

To wit, we will have MPC member Posen speaking at an event in the London School of Economics where we may pick up some clues for future monetary and fiscal policy plans. Stateside, the key data will include Housing Starts which are expected to rise by 0.7m units and Industrial Production is set to have grown by 0.3% in March.  Earnings week continues with results due from Coca Cola and Goldman Sachs today. 

EURUSD – the euro tested the support at the 1.30 levels but has since found its way above 1.31 and is consolidating. The 55 day MA still proves resistant and unless we see a break above the 1.3150 and then1.3180 the possibility of a return to and above the 1.3280 is weak. Above that could see a retest of the 1.34 area.  Again the 1.3050 could see action again, which would see 1.30 levels back in the frame. Below that could see a return to February’s lows of 1.2970

GBPUSD – the 1.5820 level remains the key support with sterling still maintaining the 1.5870 level. Having failed to remain above the 1.59 there is downside bias for the pound. A break through here could see a move to the recent highs of 1.6070. Below 1.5820 and the 55 day MA and the breach of the psychological 1.58 could precipitate a slide back to 1.5610.

EURGBP – having tested the 0.8220 support and hitting 18 month lows yesterday the single currency has bounced back with the 0.8250 and thereafter the 0.8270 levels the key resistance to further upside, Above that the 0.8300 is the elusive range.  Another break below 0.8220 could see 0.8140 last seen in August last year retested. Above the 0.8300 level the 55 Day MA should cap gains around the 0.8350 level.

USDJPY – the 55 day MA and 80.90 level has broken to the downside with the pair remaining above the next support zone around the 80.09 mark. Should this also fail, then a return to 79.16 which coincides with the 100 DMA should hold. The 81.06 level (38.2% retracement of the 76.02/84.18 highs is capping dollar upside with 81.80 posing further resistance. Only a convincing close above 83.40 would see a retest of the recent 84.18 highs.

 

Market Drifts Lower Following RBA Minutes

 

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

Despite a higher open our market has drifted lower following the RBA April minutes which details the boards recent no change monetary policy decision.  The minutes have noted that grow of the world economy are expected to be at a below trend pace in 2012 considering the weakness in Europe and the slowdown in Chinese growth. I believe traders were looking for reasons why the Australian interest rate was not dropped at the RBA’s minutes.

Many investors feel that given weakness in exports, housing and non mining investment mixed with a higher Aussie dollar a better response was warranted than waiting on Q1 CPI to justify the no change decision.

Also souring today’s mood was Spain’s bond yields pushing through 6% overnight.  The 6% level is informally known as a level where many indebted nations can no longer afford to roll-over their debt. The market is however seeming to be playing it somewhat cool around the issue as I suspect investors believe the ECB will be forced to enter the market if Spanish yields were to rise substantially higher. 

There also seems to be growing talk that the better than expected economic results out of the US has much to do with the unseasonably mild winter weather conditions that have had Americans out and about when they would otherwise by huddled up indoors. If this idea is true we can assume that the economic conditions are not as robust as first assumed and may have overcompensated the statistical seasonally adjusted data.

 

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