Michael Hewson: prosegue il vertice del Fmi mentre i mercati guardano a IFO tedesco e vendite al dettaglio GB

Scritto il alle 10:21 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst di CMC Markets UK)

La prospettiva di un possibile accordo nel weekend per un finanziamento extra di 400 miliardi di dollari da parte del Fmi non convince, perché è molto improbabile che gli Usa (prima delle elezioni di novembre) o il Canada versino altri fondi. Inoltre l’ammontare sarebbe insufficiente se la situazione della Spagna dovesse peggiorare rendendo necessario un salvataggio nei prossimi mesi.
La polemica tra il ministro delle Finanze canadese Flaherty e il tedesco Asmussen, membro del Comitato esecutivo della Bce, rivela il malumore di alcuni paesi, convinti che l’Europa non abbia fatto abbastanza per risolvere i propri problemi e che non vogliono sentirsi chiedere ulteriori contributi, quando la Germania non intende impegnarsi di più per una moneta da cui ha tratto tanti benefici.
Secondo il rapporto dell’istituto tedesco IFO, diffuso ieri, le imprese delle economie europee più grandi registrano il livello di competitività più alto da 30 anni. Questo evidenzia le difficoltà degli altri paesi europei, che cercano di migliorare la competitività, come richiesto dall’Europa a Spagna, Italia e agli altri paesi senza alcuna forma di aggiustamento monetario.
Oggi focus sull’indice tedesco IFO della fiducia delle imprese e sulle previsioni per aprile. In Gran Bretagna i dati sulle vendite al dettaglio di marzo potrebbero rappresentare un test per il rally registrato dalla sterlina nella settimana. EuroDollaro: il consolidamento triangolare rimane intatto e la moneta unica si muove in range; resistenza a 1,3330, supporto a 1,3040. DollaroYen: supporto a 80,70, sotto il quale sono possibili perdite verso 79,20. Il dollaro Usa deve superare i massimi delle scorse settimane a 81,85/90 per puntare a 83,30.

 

IMF meetings continue as markets look to German IFO and UK retail sales

Yesterday’s claim by IMF chief Christine Lagarde that an agreement on an extra $400bn of funding should be reached this weekend is rapidly becoming beside the point. Even if a promise of more funds is agreed from some members it is extremely unlikely that any money will be forthcoming from the US anytime this side of the election in November, if at all, or from Canada for that matter. In any case the amount would be totally inadequate if Spain’s fiscal situation, with respect to its banks were to deteriorate to such an extent to require some form of bailout in the coming weeks and months, let alone by the end of the year.

A spat last night between Canadian finance minister Flaherty and German ECB member Asmussen highlights the differences simmering beneath the surface among a number of countries who believe that Europe has not done anywhere near enough to deal with its own problems, and resent being asked to put their hands in their pockets when Germany seems unwilling to go the extra mile for a currency that has benefitted them enormously.

The reluctance of Germany to accept the urgency of the situation unfolding in Spain and the rest of southern Europe can probably be traced to the fact that the German economy is not experiencing the hardships or harsh realities of the austerity measures being imposed on the rest of the squeezed European economies.

According to a report published yesterday from the German IFO, companies in Europe’s largest economy are at their most competitive for 30 years. This more than anything perfectly illustrates the problems facing the rest of Europe, as they strive to improve their competitiveness, and yet this is what the EU is proposing in Spain, Italy and the rest of Europe, without any form of currency adjustment whatsoever. Today’s German IFO business climate and current assessment predictions for April are expected to remain near their March levels with business climate slipping from 109.8 to 109.5, while current assessment is expected to decline slightly from 117.4 to 117.

In the UK this week’s rally in the pound could face a significant test today with the latest retail sales figures for March which are expected to show a small rebound of 0.4%, after the sharp fall of 0.8% seen in February. There is a concern that the hotter than expected rise in inflation seen in the March figures earlier this week could see the retail sales figures undershoot expectations, especially in a month that saw fuel prices hit record highs in sterling terms, crimping consumers ability to spend on discretionary items. On the other hand the unusually warm weather could have had the opposite effect and prompted a significant bounce back in the retail sector. Today’s numbers will determine which factor had the most influence.

EURUSD – the triangular consolidation remains intact as the single currency continues to range trade, despite another attempt lower yesterday. Upper line resistance is located at 1.3330 while support lies at 1.3040. A break of this triangle could well signal a 500 point move. The 55 day MA continues to act as resistance at 1.3210. To open up the lows this year at 1.2630 we need to see a concerted break below 1.2975. Only above 1.3400 targets the 200 day MA at 1.3525.

GBPUSD – trying to pick the top in cable has proved to be a rather tricky task of late but so far it has resisted the temptation to race away higher. A marginal new high for the year yesterday brought the pound nearer to the November highs last year at 1.6170, which remains a key level for a test towards 1.6400. We also got the 50/200 daily MA golden cross over which the odds of a move higher. We still need a weekly close above the 200 week MA at 1.5975. 1.5850 trend line support from the January lows at 1.5235 continues to act as support on the downside.

EURGBP – this week’s break below 0.8200 to 19 month lows keeps the onus on the downside and a move towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065 as the next target. Any rallies should now find some semblance of resistance at the 0.8220 area, while behind that at 0.8280. While below the 0.8280 level the risk remains for further losses towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A move back above 0.8280 opens up risk for a move to 0.8330 trend line resistance from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – the weekly close remains important here with the cloud support now at the 80.70 level. While above this level on a weekly closing basis the outlook remains
constructive for the US dollar despite the low this week around the 80.30 level. A close below 80.70 argues for further losses towards 79.20. The US dollar does need to break back beyond last weeks highs at 81.85/90 to retarget 83.30.

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