M. Hewson: cresce l’incertezza politica in Europa

Scritto il alle 10:20 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst di CMC Markets UK)

Il finanziamento da 430 miliardi di dollari deciso dal FMI nel weekend sembra essere arrivato in una fase d’incertezza e divisioni politiche in Europa, alla luce degli ultimi eventi in Olanda e Francia. I nuovi fondi sono stati promessi dal FMI a fronte di un’azione molto più decisa da parte dei leader europei per attuare le riforme economiche che, alla luce di quanto successo nel weekend, sembrano più lontane.
Le tensioni e divergenze politiche sembrano ora contagiare anche ai paesi della tripla “A”. La prospettiva di una caduta del governo olandese sui tagli di bilancio chiesti dalla UE determina una grande incertezza in uno degli alleati chiave della Germania nella linea del rigore e dell’austerità. Pare che l’austerità sia una cosa buona se riguarda gli altri.
L’incapacità del governo olandese di arrivare a un accordo potrebbe portare alle elezioni, probabilmente già in settembre, che finirebbero con l’essere un voto di fiducia sull’euro. In Francia la probabilità di una vittoria Francois Hollande sull’attuale presidente Sarkozy potrebbe ulteriormente minare il “fiscal compact”, visto l’impegno a rinegoziarlo preso dal candidato socialista.
Gli investitori sperano che i dati di aprile dell’indice PMI manifatturiero e dei servizi di Francia, Germania e Eurozona portino qualche notizia positiva riguardo alla crescita. EuroDollaro: mentre la trend line di resistenza resta intatta a 1,3320, il consolidamento triangolare rimane in atto. Con il supporto a 1,3040, una rottura del triangolo potrebbe segnalare un movimento di 500 punti. DollaroYen: la fase positiva rimane intatta dopo la chiusura delle scorse settimane sopra il supporto 80,70. Una chiusura settimanale sotto 80,70 può portare a perdite verso 79,20.

 

Political uncertainty in Europe set to increase after weekend events in Holland and France

The extra $430bn worth of funds agreed by the IMF at the weekend appear not to have come a moment too soon, if the weekend events in Holland and France turn out to be as politically disruptive to a coherent European policy response to further deterioration in Europe’s debt crisis, over the coming weeks. The newly promised funds came with a demand from the IMF for much more decisive action by European leaders to implement economic reforms designed to draw a line under the crisis burning in Europe. It would, given weekend events that such reforms, are as far away as ever.

Political disarray and discord in the peripheral countries has been pretty much par for the course over the past few months, and have certainly made life difficult enough for European policymakers to contend with. This disarray and discord, it would appear, is now spreading to the triple “A” core and is bound to add an element of even more uncertainty to any coherent political response to tackle the European sovereign debt crisis over the coming weeks. The prospect of the collapse of the Dutch government over budget cuts demanded by the EU in line with the terms of fiscal compact agreed at the end of last year has created severe political uncertainty within a key ally of the German led approach to austerity. Apparently austerity is fine when it’s demanded of somebody else.

Of more importance is the fact that yet another country is liable to renege on its budget targets, following Spain and Italy last week and as such leave the much vaunted fiscal compact, which was agreed in December in a smoking ruin. A failure by Dutch politicians to come to an agreement is likely to lead to a call for elections, probably as soon as September in what is likely to turned into a vote of confidence in the euro itself.

If that wasn’t enough weekend events in France and the likelihood of a Francois Hollande win over President Sarkozy in the coming weeks is likely to undermine the fiscal compact even more, given the formers pledge to renegotiate it if elected. Investors will be hoping the release of updated April manufacturing and services PMI for France, Germany and the Euro zone as a whole brings some positive news with respect to potential growth in these sectors, however expectations aren’t that high, with only slight improvements expected in most of the measures. French and German manufacturing figures are expected to be adjusted slightly higher to 47.4 and 49 respectively, with Eurozone equivalent also higher at 48.1.

EURUSD – Friday’s move above the 55 day MA took out a few stops above 1.3200, however while the trend line resistance at 1.3320 remains intact the triangular consolidation remains in place. With lower line support at 1.3040, a break of this triangle could well signal a 500 point move. To open up the lows this year at 1.2630 we need to see a concerted break below 1.2975. Only above 1.3400 targets the 200 day MA at 1.3525.

GBPUSD – the 1.6170 resistance level and November highs of last year remains the key level and barrier to a move towards 1.6400. Last week’s close above the 200 week MA for the first time since August 2008 points towards further gains along with the 50/200 daily MA golden cross over which also improves the odds of a move higher. 1.5865 trend line support from the January lows at 1.5235 continues to act as support on the downside.

EURGBP – last week’s break below 0.8200 to 19 month lows keeps the onus on the downside and a move towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065 as the next target. Any rallies should now find some semblance of resistance at the 0.8220 area, while behind that at 0.8280. While below the 0.8280 level the risk remains for further losses towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A move back above 0.8280 opens up risk for a move to 0.8330 trend line resistance from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – upside momentum remains intact after last weeks close above the cloud support now at the 80.70 level. While above this level on a weekly closing basis the outlook remains constructive for the US dollar despite the low last week around the 80.30 level. A weekly close below 80.70 argues for further losses towards 79.20. The US dollar does need to break back beyond the two weeks highs at 81.85/90 to retarget 83.30.

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