M. Hewson: in Grecia continuano le trattative per evitare le elezioni

Scritto il alle 10:20 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, Senior Analyst a CMC Markets

L’ultima seduta della settimana si apre all’insegna di nuovi sforzi compiuti dalle forze politiche greche finalizzati a trovare un accordo “ecumenico” che scongiuri il rischio di nuove elezioni e con l’obiettivo di rinegoziare ciò che è rinegoziabile all’interno degli impegni presi con le autorità monetaria.
Il secondo focolaio di incertezze,  Madrid, si sta preparando ad avviare un auditing approfondito dei bilanci delle banche– alle quali potrebbe chiedere di effettuare accantonamenti per complessivi 130 miliardi di euro –  e un controllo stringente sulla spesa delle regioni.
L’ultima lettura, prevista per stamattina, delle previsioni economiche per l’Eurozona è probabile che non riesca a confortare i policymakers intenti a portare avanti piani di austerity. Entrando nel weekend ci aspettiamo un possibile pullback sull’Eurodollaro – la cui impostazione rimane comunque ribassista – intorno a $1,3060: sotto 1,3085 si ripropone di rivedere 1,2630; moneta unica di nuovo sui minimi contro la Sterlina con tentativi di discesa sotto 0,80. Il recupero dei rendimenti dei Treasury ha creato una sorta di floor sul DollaroYen, nonostante rimanga comunque valido uno scenario ribassista, qualora non si oltrepassi 80,42, prima a 79,20 e poi a 78,35.

Greece coalition talks set to continue

Talks of a unity deal between Pasok, New Democracy and the Democratic Left have been doing the rounds in Greece after Democratic Left leader Kouvelis backed the idea of an ecumenical administration committed to remaining in the euro, but on the condition of the gradual disengagement from the bailout agreement. 

Whether this will be enough to circumvent new elections and keep EU leaders onside is highly debateable given that the EU has stated that the bailout terms are non negotiable, except around the fringes, in moving a comma or “a tiny tweak” then there might be some room for manoeuvre.

It would appear that given an apparent surge in support for Syriza leader Alex Tsipras since the election, both Samaras and Venizelos appear to be desperate to avoid another election in case they lose even more support at a second vote and this appears to be an attempt to avoid that possibility.

In Spain it appears that the Spanish government may have gained more time to bring down their budget deficit but they would have to agree to an independent auditing of their bank restructuring plans, which have been shown to be inadequate in the past.  This would probably not make pleasant reading.

They would also insist that Spain exercise more fiscal control of its regions.  It remains to be seen whether Spain will accept the offer but the government is expected to announce the full details of a new bank restructuring plan which would include requiring banks to increase the amount of funds set aside against bad loans, by €30bn to around €120bn.

Later this morning the EU Commission is set to announce its latest economic growth forecasts for the euro area and they aren’t expected to make comfortable reading. The only question will be how much they are cut by as deficit targets look set to be missed across the board, not what leaders want to hear when countries are struggling to pass stringent budgets. 

In Germany the latest CPI figures for April are expected to come in at 2.2%, with the monthly figure set to rise 0.2%, unchanged from March. Any reaction to these figures could be significant given comments by German finance minister Schauble yesterday that Germany might be more flexible about its commitment on inflation. In any case its difficult to read too much into a single comment given the historical concerns about letting the inflation genie out of its bottle.

In the UK producer prices for April are expected to drop back sharply with input prices set to fall by over half from 5.8% to 2.1% year on year. Output prices are also expected to have declined from 2.5% to 1.9%, strengthening the hand of those MPC members who expect inflation to start falling back.

EURUSD – downside pressure continues to be the dominant theme here and for now the single currency continues to struggle just below 1.3000 and as such further losses look likely. As we head in to the weekend headline risk could prompt a short squeeze back towards 1.3060, but while below the gap at 1.3085, downside pressure prevails for a move towards 1.2630. Only a move back above the gap at 1.3085 has the potential to stabilise in the short term and target a retest of 1.3200. 

GBPUSD – the pound continues to find interest to buy on dips below the 1.6100 level and as such continues to remain fairly resilient. While above the support at this week’s low and the 1.6050 area the pound will remain susceptible to short covering.  Only below 1.6050 argues for a test towards the trend line support at 1.5995 from the January lows at 1.5235. Below that and we could see 1.5770 which is 50% retracement of the entire up move from 1.5235 to 1.6305. Primary resistance remains at the trend line resistance at 1.6315 from the 2011 highs at 1.6750, as well as 1.6200, the highs this week.

EURGBP – another new low as the single currency tried to breach the psychologically important 0.8000 support level. The downtrend remains intact though while below the 0.8100 level. A close below 0.8010/20 targets the risk of further losses towards 0.7700 over the medium term. There remains a risk of short squeeze to fill the gap between Fridays low and the highs this week, towards the 0.8100 level, however to stabilise we would need to see a move back above 0.8140, to retarget resistance at 0.8220 and trend line resistance at 0.8260 from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – a sharp pullback in US bond yields kept a floor under the dollar yesterday but the downward pressure remains a concern if we can’t close above the 80.42 cloud resistance. It certainly keeps the risk skewed to the downside. The risk remains for a move towards 79.20 initially on the way to 78.35 and the 200 day MA. The 80.42 cloud line should now act as a resistance level and for the dollar to stabilise we would need to see a close back above this key level.

 

 

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