M. Hewson: i timori per l’uscita della Grecia peseranno sui mercati

Scritto il alle 10:19 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, Senior Analyst a CMC Markets

L’ipotesi dell’uscita della Grecia dall’euro, che un anno fa era stata definita impossibile, oggi viene avanzata come possibile sbocco allo stallo politico seguito alle elezioni, e il timore di questo evento pesa sui mercati. Le trattative per cercare di formare un nuovo governo di coalizione riprendono oggi ad Atene. La debolezza dei vecchi partiti, Nuova Democrazia e Pasok, rende più probabile la possibilità di nuove elezioni, che potrebbero rafforzare ulteriormente il nuovo partito emergente Syriza.
In Germania le elezioni nel Land Nord Reno Westfalia ieri hanno dato un duro colpo alla Cancelliera Merkel, dopo quello inferto la settimana scorsa nello Schleswig-Holstein e potrebbero rendere difficile il passaggio del ‘fiscal compact’ in parlamento. Questi temi saranno all’esame della riunione dell’Eurogruppo dei ministri delle finanze, che avrà come primo punto le ripercussioni dell’eventuale uscita della Grecia dall’Eurozona.
In agenda oggi le aste di titoli di stato in Italia e Spagna e, tra i dati macroeconomici, la produzione industriale di marzo in Europa. In Asia la Cina ha abbassato il coefficiente di riserva obbligatoria di 50 punti base mentre si accentuano i timori per la crescita dell’economia dopo i deludenti dati sulla produzione industriale e l’export. 
EuroDollaro: permane la pressione ribassista con la possibilità di un ritorno verso 1,3060, ma con prevalente tendenza per un movimento verso 1,2630. DollaroYen: la pressione al ribasso rimane il tema dominante dopo due chiusure settimanali dentro la resistenza a 80,40. Resta il rischio di un movimento verso 79,20. La linea 80,42 potrebbe continuare ad essere un livello di resistenza e per stabilizzarsi il dollaro dovrebbe chiudere sopra questo valore.

Greece exit fears set to weigh on markets

Markets continue to feel the pressure and the stakes continue to rise as what was declared unthinkable a year ago or so now, starts to permeate mainstream thinking in Europe. European Central Bankers are now publicly talking about a Greek euro exit as the political deadlock continues in Athens, even as the Greek president tries to broker a deal for a coalition government.

Talks look set to reconvene today between the Greek President and the other parties with the exception of Syriza leader Tsipras, who it is reported won’t be attending. The likelihood of fresh elections continues to look ever more likely as the old Greek political order of New Democracy and Pasok starts to look ever more fragile. The likelihood of another election appears to be something both parties fear as opinion polls continue to suggest that new kid on the block Syriza would gain further support if a second poll was held.

If all the uncertainty in Greece wasn’t bad enough in German state elections at the weekend Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered another setback for the second weekend in a row, suffering losses in North Rhineland Westphalia, following on from the previous weekend defeat in Schleswig-Holstein. These defeats could weaken her hand in trying to pass the fiscal compact through parliament at a time when her insistence on fiscal discipline or austerity comes under attack from around Europe.

Against this backdrop there are a number of auctions in the European bond markets with Italy looking to sell up to €3.5bn of 2015, 2020, 2022 and 2025 bonds. Spain is also looking to sell 12 and 18 month T-bills at a time when investors remain concerned as to whether the measures the Spanish government is taking to deal with the problems in its banking sector are a case of “too little too late”.

All these moving parts will certainly give food for thought at today’s Eurogroup meeting of European finance ministers, where the main topic of discussion is likely to be the wide scale ramifications of a Greece exit of the Eurozone. Economic data is likely to prove somewhat of a distraction, however it will probably prove to be a sharp reminder of the problems facing Europe, with industrial production for March set to show a year on year contraction of -1.4%, a slight improvement on February’s -1.8% decline.

In Asia the news isn’t much better with China cutting its bank reserve requirements ration by 50 basis points as concerns continue to rise about the pace of the Chinese growth story after last week’s disappointing industrial production data as well as the poor import and export data.

EURUSD – the downside pressure continues to build after the triangle breakout last week, and while we continue to struggle just below 1.3000 further losses look likely. Given the potential for headline risk there remains a chance for a short squeeze back towards 1.3060, but while below the gap at 1.3085, downside pressure prevails for a move towards 1.2630. Only a move back above the gap at 1.3085 has the potential to stabilise in the short term and target a retest of 1.3200.

GBPUSD – the pound finally succumbed to the pressure to move lower towards the 1.6050 support talked about last week, but while above this area remains susceptible to short covering. If we do move below 1.6050 the bigger support comes in at trend line support at 1.6000 from the January lows at 1.5235. Below that and we could see 1.5770 which is 50% retracement of the entire up move from 1.5235 to 1.6305. Primary resistance remains at the trend line resistance at 1.6315 from the 2011 highs at 1.6750, as well as 1.6200, the highs this week.

EURGBP – the single currency continues to hold the above the psychologically important 0.8000 support level; however the downtrend remains intact while below the 0.8100 level. The key resistance level lies in the gap between 0.8085 and 0.8105 but to stabile it needs a move above 0.8140 to retarget resistance at 0.8220 and trend line resistance at 0.8245 from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – downside pressure remains the predominant theme here after two successive weekly closes back inside the cloud resistance at 80.40. The risk remains for a move towards 79.20 initially on the way to 78.45 and the 200 day MA. The 80.42 cloud line should continue to act as a resistance level and for the dollar to stabilise we would need to see a close back above this key level.

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