M. Hewson: la Grecia torna alle urne, in arrivo il report della BoE

Scritto il alle 10:51 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets.

 
L’annuncio del mancato accordo in Grecia per la formazione del governo ha dato il via ad una raffica di vendite sui mercati nella convinzione che le prossime elezioni saranno un referendum sulla permanenza del Paese nell’euro. Il ministro delle Finanze tedesco Schaeuble ha dichiarato che i leader politici greci devono dire chiaramente agli elettori che il piano di salvataggio va attuato, pur se con misure di sostegno.
Anche la Cancelliera tedesca Merkel e il nuovo Presidente francese Hollande si sono impegnati a valutare provvedimenti per favorire la crescita in Grecia. Secondo i sondaggi, il partito Syrizas di Alex Tsipras, che si è impegnato a respingere il piano di austerità, risulterebbe vincente, ma gli stessi sondaggi indicano anche che oltre il 70% dei greci vuole rimanere nell’euro.
I greci dovranno scegliere tra la certezza di altri tagli alla spesa e austerità fino al 2020 (quando si spera che il rapporto tra debito e Pil scenda al 120% del Pil), o l’incertezza di un drammatico e violento default con la possibilità, se le cose procedessero come previsto, di un ritorno alla crescita in due o tre anni, se le riforme fossero realizzate. Se le nuove elezioni daranno lo stesso esito delle prime, resta oscuro come la Grecia possa restare nell’euro, come ha detto il direttore generale del FMI, Lagarde, secondo la quale “dobbiamo essere tecnicamente preparati a tutto”.
In Gran Bretagna in agenda i dati sulla disoccupazione, sui sussidi di disoccupazione e sulle retribuzioni medie e il rapporto della Banca d’Inghilterra sull’inflazione, mentre l’economia britannica rallenta e si temono i contraccolpi della crisi in Europa.
EuroDollaro: dopo la rottura sotto 1,2800, l’area 1,2630 diventa un supporto chiave. I rimbalzi potrebbero incontrare una resistenza a 1,2810/20 e poi 1,2950/60. Il livello 1,3085 rimane il target di lungo temine. EuroSterlina: la prospettiva di un movimento verso 0,7845 è più vicina; la resistenza chiave è tra 0,8085 e 0,8105. DollaroYen: permane la pressione ribassista e il rischio di un movimento verso 79,20 e successivamente 78,45.

Greece to look at fresh elections, Bank of England inflation report

Yesterday’s announcement that Greek politicians had failed to agree on the formation of a government shouldn’t really have come as too much of a surprise, nevertheless markets sold off aggressively with reports that the next election is likely to be an in or out referendum on euro membership. German finance minister Schaeuble indicated as such when he stated that Greek politicians needed to be honest with their people.

The bailout package was not negotiable, though bi-lateral measures could be taken to help, but that if they wanted to stay in the euro then it had to be implemented. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French President François Hollande also weighed in by promising to consider new measures to revive economic growth in the country.

Recent opinion polls suggest that Alex Tsipras’ Syrizas party would win as the largest party and he has committed to tear up the bailout package, however those same polls also show that over 70% of Greeks want to stay in the euro, which on the face of it is completely contradictory and this is the circle that needs squaring. The choice facing Greece voters is the certainty of more spending cuts and austerity until 2020 when it is hoped that the debt to GDP ratio will fall to 120% of GDP or the uncertainty of a sharp brutal default and exit with the possibility, if things do go to plan, of a potential return to growth in two to three years, if reforms are implemented.

If the second election produces a similar result to the first one then it remains unclear how Greece could stay in the euro, a fact acknowledged by IMF chief Christine Lagarde when she said last night that “we have to be technically prepared for anything.”

In ordinary times UK unemployment numbers and the Bank of England inflation report would probably be headline events, however they are mere sideshows to the events happening in Europe. With the UK economy languishing in a technical recession and worries about spill over effects from events in Europe it probably won’t be a surprise to see the March ILO unemployment rate rise from 8.3% to 8.4%, while jobless claims look set to increase by 5k for April.

The squeeze on average earnings looks set to continue on a quarterly basis in March slipping back again from 1.1% to 1%. With average earnings remaining squeezed and inflation remaining sticky today’s Bank of England inflation report isn’t likely to offer too much in the way of comfort with inflation risks expected to be broadly balanced, if slightly tilted towards the upside despite this week’s sharp drop in oil prices which should help lower fuel costs.

Given that arch dove Adam Posen recently changed his vote from more asset purchases it would appear that the bar has been raised slightly with respect to further QE, despite the recent poor data. Growth targets look likely to be lowered, while the inflation projections could get nudged back above 3%. Events in Greece are expected to warrant a mention or two, however the report won’t factor those in so expect the governor to have to field some questions on that, especially now.

EURUSD – confidence continues to ebb away from the single currency after yesterday’s break below 1.2800 as it closes in towards the long term objective and January lows at 1.2630. This area is likely to be a key support level as the 1.2600 level is also the August 2010 lows. A concerted break below that could well target 1.1880 the 2010 lows, put in soon after the first Greece bailout. Pullbacks are likely to find resistance at the 1.2810/20 level and yesterday’s lows and then 1.2950/60. The gap at 1.3085 remains the longer term cap, while only a move back above the gap at 1.3085 has the potential to stabilise in the short term and target a retest of 1.3200.

GBPUSD – yesterday the pound finally succumbed to the support around the 1.6050 area as well as the trend line support at 1.6000 from the January lows at 1.5235. this suggests the pound could well be lining up for further losses, however the 55 day MA could provide some support at 1.5960, given that it has held since mid March. Pullbacks are now likely to find selling interest around the 1.6060/70 area as well as 1.6130. The emphasis has now shifted to the downside and towards 1.5770 which is 50% retracement of the entire up move from 1.5235 to 1.6305.

EURGBP – having held below 0.8020 yesterday and posting another three year low at 0.7950 the prospect of a move towards 0.7845, the November 2008 lows moves ever closer. The key resistance level lies in the gap between 0.8085 and 0.8105 but to
stabile it needs a move above 0.8140 to retarget resistance at 0.8220 and trend line resistance at 0.8245 from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to ping around between the broader resistance around the 80.40/50 area and support at the 79.70 level. Downside pressure remains the predominant theme here after two successive weekly closes back inside the cloud resistance at 80.40. The risk remains for a move towards 79.20 initially on the way to 78.45 and the 200 day MA. The 80.42 cloud line should continue to act as a resistance level and for the dollar to stabilise we would need to see a close back above this key level.

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