M. Hewson: gli schieramenti sugli eurobond cominciano a definirsi

Scritto il alle 10:34 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets

I disaccordi tra i leader europei sulle misure per risolvere la crisi sembrano non trovare una soluzione, con i paesi divisi in due schieramenti, debitori e creditori. Da una parte il nuovo Presidente francese Hollande, che sostiene che gli Eurobond sono l’unica soluzione, modifica l’aumento dell’età pensionabile abbassandola a 60 anni e aumenta il salario minimo.
Hollande ha accentuato le pressioni sulla Cancelliera tedesca raccogliendo il sostegno di tutti i paesi debitori, mentre il Primo Ministro italiano Monti ha addirittura dichiarato che la Germania può essere persuasa ad accettare gli eurobond in tempi brevi, forse esagerando un po’.
La Germania non è isolata, anche Austria, Olanda e Finlandia, che non sono molto indebitati, sono contro la proposta. In Grecia i sondaggi di opinione indicano un aumento dei voti per il partito di sinistra Syrizas, contrario al piano di salvataggio, a spese di Nuova Democrazia, che è favorevole al piano. Se Syrizas vincesse le elezioni, la conseguenza potrebbe essere l’uscita della Grecia dall’euro.
In Spagna il sistema bancario è in difficoltà ed è probabile che Bankia abbia bisogno di qualcosa di più dei 9 miliardi di euro originariamente previsti, forse la cifra potrebbe essere intorno a 15 miliardi di euro. In questa situazione di incertezza pare che i gestori dei grandi fondi europei stiano iniziando a ridurre l’esposizione agli asset in euro. Gli investitori temono che i leader politici non siano in grado di prendere le misure necessarie e il rinvio di ogni decisione al vertice di giugno ha esasperato gli animi.
EuroDollaro: con una chiusura di settimana sotto il livello 1,2600, il movimento verso i minimi 2010 post primo salvataggio della Grecia a 1,1880 resta tra le eventualità; outlook ribassista e possibilità di vedere un movimento breve su una rottura sopra 1,2820 verso il livello 1,2950/60. EuroSterlina: la sterlina continua ad avvantaggiarsi a spese dell’euro, mentre torna verso i mimi della scorsa settimana a 0,7950. DollaroYen: il dollaro trova supporto sopra 79,00, ma la pressione al ribasso resta dominante. Solo una chiusura sopra 80,42 può portare ad una stabilizzazione del dollaro.

Battle lines begin to get drawn over Eurobonds

With little in the way of data out of Europe today the main news flow is likely to be confined to the continued disagreements between EU leaders as to the way forward for Europe as Greece teeters on the brink. Yesterday’s abysmal economic data highlighted the need for urgent action to address the core issues that continue to weigh on Europe, however the various countries positions are likely to remain as polarised as ever.

These positions, unsurprisingly are split straight down the middle between the debtor and creditor countries. On the one hand we have the new French President Francois Hollande who insisted that Eurobonds are the only way forward, while at the same time thumbing his nose at Germany by partially repealing the pension age increase for older workers back to 60 and increasing the minimum wage.

In conjunction with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti Hollande has continued to increase the pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel raising support for the idea of Eurobonds amongst all the debtor nations. Italian PM Monti has even gone as far as to state that Germany can be persuaded to agree to Eurobonds very soon, which is probably stretching credibility just a little, to say the least.

It can’t be any surprise to see the countries that would benefit the most from lower borrowing costs are looking to leverage off Germany’s position as the strongest EU economy, and its triple A rating. In any case Germany is not isolated on this issue with Austria, Holland and Finland all coming out against the proposals, all countries who don’t have large debts.

Opinion polls in Greece continue to move the way of new kids on the political block Syrizas who oppose the bailout plan, increasing their share of the vote at the expense of Samara’s New Democracy party who are in favour of the bailout plan. The left wing Greek leader seems to remain of the opinion that Germany is bluffing about not negotiating on austerity.

One thing is for sure if Syrizas go on to become the largest party on June 17th we will soon find out, and the outcome could well see Greece leave the euro. If the swings in Greek opinion polls aren’t enough to make the markets twitch there is always Spain and its toxic banking system as it becomes apparent that Bankia is likely to need quite a bit more than the €9bn originally needed to help bolster its balance sheet.

The new amount is said to be in the region of €15bn as the bank looks to present its latest restructuring plan today. Against this uncertain backdrop big European fund managers are reported to be starting to pare down their exposure to euro denominated assets. Investors are now worrying that the collective political will may not be there to make the necessary decisions to deal with the crisis. This fear has exacerbated after European leaders once again deferred decisions on a bigger firewall to cope with a contagion to Spain and Italy, choosing to defer any decisions to the June summit, when it could well be too late.

EURUSD – yesterday’s sharp move above 1.2600 did indeed find some selling interest after the single currency once again made a marginal new 22 month low at 1.2515. As long as we can close the week below the 1.2600 level the move towards the 2010 post first Greek bailout lows at 1.1880 remains on the cards. Any rebound, short squeeze, whatever you want to call it needs to be contained by the highs this week at 1.2820/30, though yesterday’s highs at 1.2620 should also provide a decent top. With the outlook even more bearish the concern remains that we could see a short squeeze on a break above 1.2820 towards the 1.2950/60 level.

GBPUSD – the pound found support yesterday at 1.5645 the 61.8% retracement level of the entire up move from the this years low at 1.5240 to the highs at 1.6305. If we break below that then we could well be looking at a sharp move towards 1.5530. Any pullbacks in the cable are likely to find stiff resistance at the 1.5840/50 level which proved to be such a strong barrier earlier this week. We are also likely to find resistance at the 1.5770 50% Fibonacci level of the same move.

EURGBP – the pound continues to benefit at the euros expense as it heads back towards the lows seen last week at 0.7950. While below the 0.8100 resistance level the onus remains towards the downside. Last week’s rather bullish weekly candle seems to suggest that we could well start to see some sterling weakness in the short term, but while 0.8100 caps expect to find rallies sold into, and if we break below 0.7950 then all bets are off for a move towards 0.7845 and the November 2008 lows. To squeeze higher the single currency now needs to close above the gap and risk a deeper move towards trend line resistance at 0.8220 from the February highs at 0.8505.

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to find support just above the 79.00 level however downside pressure remains the predominant theme here, despite remaining above the 200 day MA at 78.60. While below the cloud resistance at 80.40 the risk remains for further declines towards 78.50 and the 200 day MA. Only a close above the 80.42 cloud line would suggest a stabilisation in the dollar.

 

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