Forex Morning Comments: la sconfitta di Syriza spinge al rialzo i mercati
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (senior market analyst) e Tim Waterer (senior trader) di CMC Markets.
Nonostante la vittoria relativa delle forze che sostengono l’Euro, le sfide ancora aperte in Grecia restano enormi e la sensazione più diffusa è che il giorno del giudizio sia solo rimandato: con il partito Syrizas che ha accresciuto il proprio consenso del 10%, è poco probabile che qualsiasi prossimo governo possa trovare più facilmente la via per le implementazioni richieste dalla troika.
A Parigi invece il rafforzamento dei socialisti di Hollande prelude ad un futuro redde rationem con le richieste di maggiori pressioni fiscali da parte della Germania: se i mercati si convincessero che la Francia sta rallentando il suo processo di rafforzamento di bilancio, infatti, gli investitori perderebbero la loro fiducia e vedremmo un allargamento degli spread sui titoli francesi con il pericolo di vedere minacciato quel che rimane del rating a tripla A ed un conseguente innalzamento dei costi che verrebbe subito in primo luogo dalla Germania.
Rimbalzo dell’Eurodollaro con probabile obiettivo $1,2820-30 nel breve termine per quanto lo scenario rimanga ribassista. Ritorno degli appetiti rialzisti in apertura dei mercati asiatici con i trader a scommettere sulla possibilità che la Grecia riesca a rimanere in Eurozona: ribassi per i cosiddetti safe-haven e ripresa degli asset a maggior rendimento in attesa che venga superato anche il secondo ostacolo della settimana, ovvero che si compia la promessa di un ulteriore Quantitative Easing da parte della Fed.
Un passo indietro su questo fronte, infatti, potrebbe provocare un rapido pulback delle posizioni in accumulo, tese a recuperare il terreno perduto nell’ondata di vendite di maggio.
Greece poll sees Syrizas lose out and markets rally
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson)
The outcome of the Greece election could prove to be one of those results that could end up being potentially toxic to the winner, given that the next government could well preside over Greece’s eventual exit from the euro. As things stand Syrizas leader Alex Tsipras has indicated that his party will not take part in any attempt to form a coalition government thus removing his party from any blame if a newly formed government subsequently splinters and fails.
It remains to be seen whether New Democracy’s Samaras will be able to form a government stable enough to implement the reforms demanded by EU leaders, however as the biggest party he will try, and given the stakes a dialogue with PASOK remains the likely option. The challenges facing the Greek economy remain mountainous and the general feeling remains predominantly that the day of reckoning has merely been delayed.
Initial reactions from Europe appear to be favourable to the outcome with EU leaders softening their tone with respect to adjusting the bailout terms. A statement from Eurogroup finance ministers indicated that international monitors would return to Greece shortly to discuss next steps for a way forward to the adjustment program, which is already off track.
German finance minister Schaeuble suggested that the result showed that Greeks are in favour of the deep economic and fiscal reforms, being undertaken, which is probably stretching the truth somewhat.
It’s more likely Greek voters were terrified of the step into the unknown dropping out of the euro at this time might bring and decided to go with the status quo, for now. In any case with Syrizas once again growing its share of the vote, reflecting the growing opposition to the bailout terms, it is unlikely that any new government will find implementing the bailout measures any easier than previous governments. It would appear that the proverbial can has once again been kicked a little bit further, which at least will makes today’s G20 meeting a little less anxious than it might have been.
Separately in French elections new President Francois Hollande’s socialists look set to win a majority and in the process strengthen his hand in the passing of new legislation that would take France’s foot off the fiscal brakes. This is likely to put him on a collision course with Germany and German Chancellor Angela Merkel who has become irritated at his calls for Germany to accept Eurobonds, while at the same time reducing the French retirement age, back to 60, and increasing the minimum wage.
The worry now is that if markets perceive that France is backing away from attempting to bring its budget deficit down, investors could lose confidence and push French borrowing costs up which in turn could put pressure on its remaining “triple A” credit ratings, and drive its borrowing costs up, thus putting a much greater burden on Germany.
EURUSD – the gap higher in Asia suggests we could well see a move towards 1.2820/30 in the short term, but we need to stay above the bottom of the gap which is between 1.2640 and last weeks highs at 1.2670. Despite this move higher the emphasis hasn’t unduly shifted from a bearish euro scenario. The focus continues to remain towards the downside and for a retest of the lows this year at 1.2290, on a break below 1.2430. The primary objective still remains the 2010 post first Greek bailout lows at 1.1880, but we could see a bit of a short squeeze first.
GBPUSD – the break above the 1.5610 level at the end of last week opened up a sharp move higher on Friday, and Asia’s test of the 1.5780 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.6305 to the 1.5270 lows at the end of May, has capped gains so far. A break above 1.5755, the 200 day MA and through 1.5780 targets 1.5910 which would be the 61.8% retracement of the same move. Support now lies at the 1.5610/20 area. The key support remains between 1.5230 and 1.5260 and lows for the last nine months which if broken could well see a sell-off on a break of this level towards 1.4950.
EURGBP – the single currency remains in the broader range between resistance at the 55 day MA and trend line resistance from the February highs at 0.8504 between 0.8135 and 0.8150. A break above 0.8150 could well see further gains towards 0.8205 trend line resistance from the November highs at 0.8830. On the downside there is trend line support from the recent lows at 0.7950, just below the 0.8000 level which could limit the downside here. If we break below the recent lows at 0.7950 then we could well be set for the move towards 0.7845 and the November 2008 lows.
USDJPY – not much to add here as the key levels continue to lie either side of the cloud extremities at 80.40 on the upside and 77.90 on the downside. Continued speculation about further Fed QE next week will continue to weigh on the US dollar. The quick recovery back above the 200 day MA earlier this month remains a positive sign after this months sharp fall saw the US dollar just about hold inside the weekly Ichimoku cloud support. Only a weekly close above the 80.42 cloud resistance line would suggest a stabilisation in the dollar towards 82.00.
Greek Election Signals Green Light For Risk
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Trader Tim Waterer)
The Greek election result signalled a Green light for the resumption of buying in higher yielding assets. Traders took great comfort in the knowledge that a win for the New Democracy party at the ballot box would provide a degree of stability regarding Greece’s relationship with the powers that be in the EU.
A messy Greek exit is just something that financial markets do not want to deal with right now, so traders had no hesitation in rejoicing the pro-bailout party win. As a result, the market was in an exuberant buying mode to start the week, with safe haven assets taking a pronounced back seat to those providing greater yields. While the market has navigated past one hurdle, another potential obstacle awaits with the FOMC statement later in the week. Any reluctance from the FOMC to embark on further QE could ruffle the feathers of the market and create a pullback.
Crude oil pushed higher now that the demand picture is looking slightly more settled after the Greek vote. With an FOMC statement still to come which could see US Dollar buying curtailed further, upside risk on crude is starting to strike a more even balance with the downside risks which have dominated the landscape since the start of May. Share markets across Asia gave a resounding tick of approval to the poll results in Greece, with traders back in buying-mode to start the week.
The ASX200 waltzed through the 4100 level, with the particularly growth-sensitive materials and energy stocks being the prime drivers of the substantial move higher by the index. Mining giants BHP and RIO certainly looked to be back in favour with traders now that a significant potential stumbling block in Europe has been overcome with the Greek vote. How long this burst of enthusiasm on equities will last for remains to be seen, however it does look like equity markets are poised to reclaim a significant portion of the ground lost during the May sell-off provided the FOMC does not pull the rug from under the market later in the week.