M. Hewson: le indicazioni macro potrebbero favorire nuovi interventi delle banche centrali
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets.
La seduta di oggi dovrebbe aprirsi positivamente e registrare ulteriori acquisti. La percezione diffusa tra gli operatori che sia la Bce che la Bank of England si stiano preparando ad allentare le misure di politica monetaria già questa settimana contribuisce a costruire una base ai mercati azionari. Nonostante l’ultima ridda di dati che confermano un quadro economico europeo in deterioramento e i volumi globali relativamente bassi imputabili alla stagionalità, una maggiore facilità di finanziamento globale messa in atto dalle principali banche centrali del mondo sembra essere la strada giusta per ottenere il risultato sperato ossia evitare l’implosione e il collasso del sistema finanziario.
Tanto più che quanto più grave dovesse diventare la situazione dal punto di vista dei fondamentali economici, tanto più ci dovremmo attendere ulteriori misure di quantitative easing. E’ chiaro come in tal situazione i mercati abbiano subito afferrato il messaggio e realizzato che stare liquidi e rimanere corti in questo momento possa anche non rivelarsi esattamente una buona idea, poichè la fiducia può ritornare in un baleno. Tutte queste considerazioni non sembrano tuttavia comportare effetti positivi per l’Euro che anzi , dopo essere ritornato a 1,2570 potrebbe ritestare i minimi visti la scorsa settimana e di nuovo a 1,2420. Debolezza anche per la Sterlina contro Dollaro (non riesce a superare 1,5755 e rischia di tornare a 1,5580).
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson)
Poor data reinforces easing hopes
Despite some pretty poor economic data out of Europe and the US yesterday equity markets continue to hold up fairly well, even if the single currency continues to find rallies difficult to sustain. Perceptions about the prospects of an easing of monetary policy later this week from the European Central Bank, as well as the Bank of England seem to be keeping a floor under equity markets, as investors anticipate their next monetary fix, however the same cannot really be said for the euro, which continues to struggle to hold onto any form of gains.
This economic weakness in Europe was reinforced yesterday as unemployment in the Eurozone increased once more to record euro highs of 11.1%, while manufacturing continued to contract sharply, particularly in Spain and France.
While bond yields in Italy and Spain have eased somewhat there still remains a lot of unanswered questions with respect to last week’s EU Summit agreement, not least Finland and the Netherlands claims that they reserve the right to block bond buying by the bailout funds on the open market. Given concern about bond buying by the ESM the vote today in the Dutch upper house could well offer some insight into the some of the political divisions starting to open up in the Netherlands surrounding the costs of further fiscal integration.
There is also the small matter of the legal challenges in Germany to the fiscal compact and the ESM which are due to be heard by the German constitutional court on July 10th. Today the focus is likely to be more on the UK economy and the weakness of UK economic data with the release of construction PMI for June, as well as money supply figures and consumer lending data.
The construction PMI numbers have stubbornly held above the 50 expansion level for most of this year, and once again they look likely to do so slipping back from the 54.4 reading in May to 52.9 in June. The resilience of this PMI data flies in the face of comparable GDP data for the sector which shows that the construction component of GDP is one of the poorest performing parts of the UK economy.
Mortgage approvals and net consumer credit for May is also expected to remain weak, reflecting the reluctance of consumers to add to their debt burdens in a slowing economy. Mortgage approvals for May are expected to fall back to 50k, from 52k while consumer credit is expected to fall back from £0.3bn to £0.2bn. It is the M4 money supply figures that are likely to be of particular interest given this week’s Bank of England meeting, given that in the last two months on an annualised basis the figures have been negative.
EURUSD – the upward momentum seen on Friday looks to be showing signs of waning and a fall back through the lows yesterday at 1.2570 could well be the start of a move back towards the 1.2420 level and last week’s lows. The main obstacle to a stronger move higher remains above the 1.2750 level which also coincides with a number of other key resistance levels including the 55 day MA at 1.2775 and 50% retracement level of the 1.3285/1.2290 down move at 1.2790. A move below 1.2420 would be the first step towards the 1.2290 lows this year, while the primary objective remains unchanged at the 2010 post first Greek bailout lows at 1.1880.
GBPUSD – once again the pound lacked the legs to get above the key resistance on a closing basis at the 200 day MA at 1.5755, topping out at 1.5725 yesterday. While below this key level and the 50% retracement of the 1.6305/1.5270 down move at 1.5785, a fall back towards 1.5580 seems the most likely outcome. The key support remains at the 1.5480 level, 14th and 15th June lows which we failed to get below last week. Only a break below here retargets the June low at 1.5270. Only a close beyond 1.5755 the 200 day MA, targets 1.5910, which would be the 61.8% retracement of the move mentioned earlier.
EURGBP – pullbacks here have continued to remain below the 55 day MA at 0.8078 and trend line resistance from the highs this year at 0.8505 at 0.8090. As long as any pullbacks stay below then further euro losses are the preferred scenario, otherwise we’re looking at resistance at the 0.8150 area. The area below the 0.8000 level seems to be offering quite a bit of support at the moment; however the key level remains the 0.7950 area. Once below 0.7950 we could well see a move towards 0.7845 and the November 2008 lows.
USDJPY – the choppy range continues to play out within the cloud with the top at 80.45 and the support above the 200 day MA at 78.80. We also have trend line support at 79.20/30 from the 4th June lows at 78.00. To reiterate we need a weekly close above 80.50 to reassure about further upside.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
RBA Takes a “Wait and see” Approach
As expected the RBA decided to keep Australian rates on hold today. The rate has remained unchanged at 3.5% following two consecutive rate cuts and remain at their lowest levels since 2009. The 75bp of cuts over the last two months and the positive resolution in Europe has seen the RBA take a wait and see approach on the Australian economy.
The next round of inflation data will be a key determinant to whether the RBA will continue on its easing bias. The oil and gas sector has seen the largest selling today taking the markets slightly stronger, opening a lead into negative territory as the day progressed. The sector was feeling a little overbought today following the large risk assets moves yesterday.
As we move past window dressing and the end of the financial year it looks like the US is getting set for summer vacation. The lowest volumes in a decade will likely continue until solid reason to enter the markets emerges.
Currently the market has overlooked the risk asset surge of Brussels headlines. The recent round of manufacturing data released also points to the global slowdown we are all currently witnessing. While this may seem terrible the market is holding ground based on the proposed global stimulus push currently holding the markets back from meltdown.
US quantative easing, Chinese easing measures, ECB and BoE rate cuts are all serving to hold our market back from collapse. As the economic data gets worse we get closer to more global responses for liquidity and stimulus. The market understands this idea and realises it’s not smart to remain short when confidence can flip in an instance.